1、年份1季度2季度3季度4季度总计季平均值2000231.5285.1375.9253.81146.3286.5752001257.8296.3387.4279.21220.7305.1752002245.6287.4384.7283.51201.2300.32003251.8302.6392.1287.61234.1308.5252004241.9312.5405.7278.31238.4309.6同季平均245.72296.78389.16276.48302.035年份季度季顺序t销售量y趋势值趋势季节比率（）200011107321.233.3125778322456331.48947412、37.560929133512341.778947149.804428844238352.06842167.60049632200115127362.35789535.0482221726571372.647368153.227970637641382.936842167.390527548251393.22631663.83092634200219158403.51578939.15584077210629413.805263152.0038666311660424.094737155.625605412293434.38421167.451807162003113176444.6736843、39.57958527214654454.963158143.7479032315686465.252632147.4467748416305475.54210564.137328042004117186485.83157938.28487238218680496.121053137.0633228319725506.410526143.1644807420324516.762.70563189SUMMARY OUTPUT回归统计Multiple R0.274290553R Square0.075235308Adjusted R Square0.023859491标准误差219.26660924、观测值20方差分析dfSSMSFSignificance F回归分析1 70405.72 70405.72 1.464410940.241882093残差18 865401.2 48077.85总计19935807Coefficients 标准误差t StatP-valueLower 95%Upper 95%Intercept310.9105263 101.8562 3.052445 0.0068557996.91851291 524.9025X Variable 110.28947368 8.502794 1.210128 0.24188209-7.57423445 28.15318RESI5、DUAL OUTPUTPROBABILITY OUTPUT观测值预测 Y残差标准残差百分比排位Y1321.2-214.2-1.003662.51072331.4894737 124.51050.583417.51273341.7789474 170.2211 0.79759312.51584352.0684211-114.068-0.5344817.51765362.3578947-235.358-1.102822.51866372.6473684 198.3526 0.92940727.52387382.9368421 258.0632 1.20918932.52518393.22631586、-142.226-0.6664237.52939403.5157895-245.516-1.150442.530510413.8052632 215.1947 1.00832347.532411424.0947368 235.9053 1.10536552.545612434.3842105-141.384-0.6624757.551213444.6736842-268.674-1.2589162.557114454.9631579 199.0368 0.93261367.562915465.2526316 220.7474 1.03434172.564116475.5421053-170.57、42-0.799177.565417485.8315789-299.832-1.404982.566018496.1210526 183.8789 0.86158987.568019506.4105263 218.58951.0242392.568620516.7-192.7-0.9029297.5725下限 95.0%上限 95.0%96.91851 524.9025-7.57423 28.15318X Variable 1 Residual Plot2520151050-400-2000200400X Variable 1残差X Variable 1 Line Fit Plot2520158、105005001000X Variable 1YY预测 YNormal Probability Plot110100908070605040302010005001000Sample PercentileYNormal Probability Plot110100908070605040302010005001000Sample PercentileY季节指数计算表年份1季度(%)2季度(%)3季度(%)4季度(%)总计200033.312578 137.56093 149.80443 67.600496 388.2784200135.048222 153.22797 167.39053 69、3.830926 419.4976200239.155841 152.00387 155.62561 67.451807 414.2371200339.579585143.7479 147.44677 64.137328 394.9116200438.284872 137.06332 143.16448 62.705632 381.2183同季平均37.07622144.7208 152.68636 65.145238 399.6286季节指数(%)37.110675 144.85529 152.82826 65.205778400修正系数1.0009293年份季度季顺序t 季节指数(%)预测值200512137.1106751 195.56935222144.85529778.27697323152.828257 836.8392742465.2057783 363.75558a310.9105b10.28947