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录第一章 项目概况一、项目提要二、编制范围与依据三、主要财务指标预测第二章 设立公司的必要性和可行性分析一、相关政策背景二、XX市经济金融发展情况三、设立科技小额贷款有限责任公司的必要性和可行性第三章 市场前景分析一、国内小额贷款企业现状二、XX市小额贷款市场需求分析三、市场前景第四章 未来业务发展规划一、市场定位和发展目标二、财67、务预测说明三、预测财务报表四、盈利能力分析五、主要核心指标分析六、财务状况评价第五章 风险分析及应对一、信用风险二、营运风险三、管理风险四、竞争风险五、法律风险第六章 结论第一章 项目概况一、项目提要企业名称：XX科技小额贷款有限责任公司注册资金：5000万元法定代表人： 注册地址：XXXX高新技术开发区业务范围：办理各项小额贷款，办理中小企业管理、财务咨询业务；经市主管部门批准的其他业务。二、编制范围与依据（一）编制范围通过对相关背景、设立方案、市场分析、财务预测、以及对风险管理的全面分析，我们对在XX市设立科技小额贷款公司的可行性进行综合评价。（二）编制依据1、中华人民共和国公司法；2、关68、于小额贷款公司试点的指导意见（银监发200823号）； 3、湖北省人民政府办公厅关于开展小额贷款公司试点工作的实施意见（鄂政办发200861号）； 4、湖北省小额贷款公司试点管理暂行办法（鄂金办发20081号）；5、XX市国民经济和社会发展第十二个五年规划纲要；6、其他相关文件。（三） 指导思想为贯彻落实中共十七届三、四、五中全会和湖北省省委、省政府关于金融体制改革的决策部署，有效配置建立完善城市金融服务体系，增强金融服务功能，支持中小企业和区域经济发展，根据中华人民共和国公司法和关于小额贷款公司试点的指导意见，按照湖北省人民政府办公厅关于开展小额贷款公司试点工作的实施意见和湖北省小额贷款公司69、试点管理暂行办法的规定等有关法律法规和政策，结合XX市经济、金融发展的实际，拟由XX和平科技集团公司作为主发起人，共同申请设立“XX科技小额贷款有限责任公司”。(四) 发起人设立与资金来源按照湖北省小额贷款公司政策的有关规定，公司注册资金5000万元，公司资本金来源为股东的实际投资，全部为货币资金。拟成立的XX科技小额贷款公司发起人清单如下：XX和平科技集团股份有限公司XX科技投资有限公司魏南江欧阳江陵甘国英彭欣许定安周劲松张纵予 （五）经营原则公司主要面向XX市行政区区内的涉农企业（农户）、个体工商户、科技小（微）型企业，按照规定的贷款额度、贷款期限、贷款利率发放小额贷款，提供担保融资服务，70、并从事通过监管部门批准的其他业务。其经营原则是：1、公司将不吸收公众存款，经营小额贷款业务；2、同一借款人的贷款余额不超过小额贷款公司资本净额的5%；3、贷款利率实行市场化贷款利率，由借贷双方商定，贷款利率下限不得低于央行同期贷款基准利率的0.9倍，上线不得高于央行同期贷款基准利率的4倍。（六）主发起人简介XX和平科技集团股份有限公司创建于1985年7月，是一家以“三农”经济开发和推广为主营方向，以科技开发、专业市场、物业管理、旅游餐饮、教育培训、健身美容、文化体育等项目多元化发展的投资与管理型企业集团。26年来，集团在XX市科委、科技局的大力帮助与支持下，始终秉承“和平科技、奉献社会”的立业71、之本，紧紧围绕“和平、科技、绿色、家庭”这一永恒主题，依托科技进步，立足实业发展，积极带领周边农民走农业产业化发展之路，有效实现了科技新技术、新成果、新项目的迅速转化，为科技富农、科技兴企作出了积极贡献。截止目前，集团已成功发展拥有引领华中地区家具行业潮头的和平大世界家居用品大市场，致力于发展“三农”经济的和平农业公社，着力于科技兴农的万亩有机水果基地，XX市第一家民企兴建的和平国防教育基地，以及绿色大世界、农业投资公司、生物环保、江夏黄、千珈香灸道、崇胜商贸等十余家企业；先后对系列项目进行了高科技研发与推广。其中，和平科技开发公司科技攻关与成果转化的“直流传感器”、“复合肥造粒工艺”和“智能72、数字压力表”等科技项目荣获XX市发明奖；和平绿色油脂有限公司成功于江夏区推广种植双低油菜新品系28万余亩；和平生物炭业公司研发的高科技生物竹炭系列产品“光触媒竹炭”、“竹醋饮料”在2004年湖北省首届林博会上双获金奖，部分产品成功出口日本；和平生物环保公司“乐美圣”高效解毒微生物肥经省科技厅组织专家鉴定，达国际先进水平，目前是我省唯一具备准字号的生物肥生产企业；和平农业发明家创业中心通过与各大科研院所建立良好的技术合作关系，并经湖北省林业局批准成立新品种引进试验基地，成功引进、培育了适合湖北地区生长的奶头金桔、和平红冠桃、香水月季、藤蔓植物、木瓜、巨型南瓜及各种南方绿化树种。其中，具有优质、高73、产、高效特性的和平红冠桃已免费提供40余万株树苗，在江夏区安山镇推广种植6000余亩，为农业产业化发展，农村区域经济发展，带领农民致富奔小康做出了积极贡献。科技是人类社会进步的力量，和平科技是民众的事业。26年来，和平科技集团关注“三农”问题，关注弱势群体，支持部队建设，关心青少年教育，热心社会公益事业，积极参与和承办各种社会活动。先后承办和举办了全国文化用品交易会、全国电子产品订货会、全国钓鱼比赛、湖北省林业博览会以及省首届“白雪公主”大奖赛、XX市体育舞蹈大赛、“世黄”恳亲大会等多项大型社会活动与体育赛事，得到了社会各界的高度关注，赢得了广泛赞誉。集团先后荣获“湖北省十强民营企业”、“湖北74、省林业产业化龙头企业”、“XX市农业产业化重点龙头企业”、“光彩之星企业”等多项殊荣；集团董事局主席黄崇胜先生荣获了“湖北省、XX市劳动模范”、“全国优秀民营科技企业家”、“现代农业经营改革先行者”、“老劳模新贡献标兵”等多项荣誉称号。小额贷款有限责任公司的其他9名法人、自然人股东均多年从事经济和企业管理工作，具有较高文化素质，具备一定的金融知识和资本运作经验，实力雄厚，对将来小额贷款公司的运作管理和可持续发展将起到强有力的支持作用。（七）公司机构设置公司计划编制人员10人，采取董事长授权下的总经理负责制。总经理主持公司全面工作，公司设立业务部、风险控制部、法律事务部、行政部、财务部。（八）公75、司高管介绍（略）三、主要财务指标预测表1-1：主要盈利能力指标如下：项 目2012年2013年2014年合计 总资产规模（万元） 7535.45 8121.19 8259.66 净利息收入（万元） 1064.251294.52 1373.85 3,732.62 净交易收入（万元） 1064.251294.52 1373.85 3,732.62 年利润总额（万元） 713.94 891.59 938.88 2,544.40 净利润（万元） 535.45 668.69 704.16 1,908.30 资产利润率(%) 7.11%8.23%8.53% 资本利润率(%) 9.67%11.69%12.276、3%从预测数据看，公司收入水平逐年上升，随着经营规模的扩大，其收益率保持稳定上升水平。表1-2：其他主要核心指标如下： 项目标准值2012年2013年2014年融资借款/贷款比例75%38.10%43.24%44.44%不良贷款率5%1.50%1.50%1.50%资本充足率8%110.73%106.60%101.82%贷款损失准备充足率100%261.29%261.29%261.29%从上述预测指标可见，小额贷款公司的信用风险都控制在较低的风险水平内，同时贷款损失准备充足率和资本充足率均较高，具有较强的风险控制和风险抵补能力，符合监管要求。四、结论国内经济特别是中部经济正处于高速发展期，相对东77、部、沿海落后的内地金融业将在政策的大力支持下迎来新的历史发展机遇，而其竞争和混沌状态的市场将为行业带来新的变局，XX市金融市场新兴金融组织形式必将大量涌现，小额贷款公司正是其中之一。在此背景下，综合考虑和分析各种因素，在XX市设立科技小额贷款公司，符合国家对城市金融改革以及扶持中小企业特别是创投小（微）企业发展的客观要求，可以更加主动地应对我国金融改革变局所产生的机遇与挑战。中部金融业相对落后的现状和尚未均衡的市场，为小额贷款公司行业发展预留了较大的发展空间，也为本项目发展提供了新的契机。因此，在XX市设立科技小额贷款公司是十分必要的和切实可行的。第二章 设立XX科技小额贷款有限责任公司的必要78、性及可行性一、XX市经济、金融发展情况XX是华中地区最大的工业、商业城市，也是国家重点建设的工业城市，拥有钢铁、汽车、光电子、化工、冶金、纺织、造船、制造、医药等完整的工业体系。清末及民国时期，XX经济位居亚洲前列。新中国成立后，武钢、武重、武锅、武船、肉联等一大批“武”字头企业陆续建成，极大地提升了XX的经济地位和城市实力。1959年到改革开放初期，XX的工业总产值位居中国第四。但自1980年代以来，XX未能跟上改革开放的步伐，逐渐被沿海地区抛在了身后，这种情况在进入21世纪后开始转变。20世纪90年代，XX建立了位于汉阳沌口的XX经济技术开发区、位于武昌的XXXX高新技术开发区、位于东西湖79、的XX吴家山台商投资区，以及位于新洲阳逻的阳逻开发区。 XX市2010年经济总量达到5565.93亿元，比上年的4620亿元同比增长14.7%，GDP总量在中部六省省会城市中从新中国以来长期一直第一。社会消费品零售总额2523.2亿元，增长19.5%；城市居民人均可支配收入20806.32元，增长13.2%；农民人均纯收入8294.8元，增长15.8%。“十二五”开局之年，XX市发改委提出2011年“菜单”：加快发展方式转变，推动XX跨越式发展，确保2011年全年经济总量跃上6000亿元新台阶，力争人均GDP突破1万美元。根据“菜单”，2011年，我市将继续创造条件，发挥投资的引领作用，在结构80、调整上实现突破：全社会固定资产投资力争达到4500亿元以上；提高工业投资强度，力争工业投资增幅高于全市平均水平5个百分点，工业投资规模突破1100亿元，为实施工业倍增计划打好基础；推动服务业集聚发展，沿两江四岸做好江岸、武昌、青山沿江商务区及王家墩商务区等重点功能区开发建设。 同时，我市将进一步强化城市基础性、枢纽性、功能性项目建设，加快轨道交通、能源重大基础设施项目的规划建设，在城市功能提升上实现突破；强化“两型”社会综合配套改革试验，制定出台五年行动计划，组织制定财税、金融、土地等关键领域的专项改革方案，在体制机制创新上实现突破；加强民生建设和社会事业发展，在基本公共服务均等化上实现突破。81、XX是长江中游的金融中心，总部在XX的金融机构有汉口银行、XX农村商业银行、长江证券、合众人寿、交银国际信托、天风证券、湖北银行七家，另有20家中资银行和日本瑞穗实业银行、东亚银行、法国兴业银行、汇丰银行、荷兰银行（苏格兰皇家银行）、标准渣打银行六家外资银行在XX设有营业机构或代表处，其中，中国工商银行、中国建设银行、中国农业银行、中国银行在XX的营业网点均超过100家，XX的银行密度居中部第一。XX还是中国人民银行在中部地区唯一的跨省级分行-XX分行所在地，负责管辖鄂湘赣三省业务。三、设立科技小额贷款公司的必要性和可行性根据国家、省、市各级政府、相关职能部门等相关规定的要求，结合XX市实际情82、况，经过我们详细的考察论证，在切实可行的前提下我们认为在XX市设立科技小额贷款公司的条件成熟：一是金融总量相对偏小，结构不尽合理。突出表现在资本市场融资规模有限，没有上市企业从资本市场筹集资金，金融业的竞争力不能满足经济社会快速发展的需要。二是从金融结构来看，目前银行业是XX市金融业的主导产业，而证券、保险、创业投资等产业相对滞后或发展不够充分。因此，加快本市保险、证券、信托等产业的发展速度，加强金融产品和服务方式的创新，进一步优化金融结构，对于跨越式的发展具有十分重要的意义。 三是中小企业融资难仍然存在，金融服务“城区经济”还有差距，许多金融界的专家认为，处于对资金安全、中小企业信誉度以及银83、行金融成本等因素的考虑，一些银行为中小企业提供贷款的积极性不高，即使企业产品市场前景良好，企业利润也比较乐观，但由于缺少有效的资产抵押难以获得银行贷款，从而限制了企业快速扩张。四是信用体系不完善，民间融资不够发达和规范。金融健康发展离不开好的生态环境。目前，金融生态环境不完善主要表现是信用体系建设滞后，社会信用体系的各个环节相互整合不够，社会信用信息广泛分布于多个部门和机构中，尚未建成统一的信息处理和查询系统，没有做到资源共享，使得一些企业和个人失信现象严重，甚至是有些中介机构为谋取利益，出具虚假资产报告，导致金融资源配置机构扭曲。另外，民间融资的不规范对金融稳定构成了极大的危险，据发起人市场84、调查并参考地方经济宏观管理部门的调查结果，受小企业及微型企业管理不规范、个体工商户难以提供有效抵押物等诸多因素的影响，其贷款需求满足率比较低。受融资政策的限制，融资方式存在较大的风险，由此导致的借贷纠纷不断，间接影响了投资者的积极性和中小企业的良性发展。而且，民间借贷游离金融监管范围之外，加上参与人数多，涉及范围广、操作方式简单，容易引发债权债务纠纷甚至是滋生违法行为，危害金融安全和社会稳定，是对正规金融业务的挑战，是恶化金融生态环境的重要因素。第三章 市场前景分析一、国内小额贷款企业现状从2005年下半年以来，央行陆续在山西、四川、贵州、陕西、内蒙古开展了由民营资本经营的商业化小额信贷试点以85、来，小额贷款公司所具有的信息优势、成本优势和速度优势，找到了自身的市场定位和发展空间。商业性小额贷款公司由于更贴近个体生产者和小（微）企业的实际情况，因而能够更好地满足他们的小额融资需求，对支持科技创新企业的发展、引导民间融资以及创造一种适度竞争的城乡金融环境，具有深远的历史意义和现实意义。小额贷款公司实行市场化利率，资金的价格由市场资金供应量和市场需求量决定。平均贷款利率水平高于商业银行贷款利率，低于民间借贷利率，不仅提高了小额贷款公司的风险覆盖能力，同时也对周边地区民间借贷利率水平起到有效的平抑作用。小额贷款公司立足服务“创投企业”，发挥了一定的城市金融补充形式的作用，取得了显著的社会效益86、和经济效益。由此可见，经营效益良好、市场定位准确、运行机制灵活、贷款方式简便宜行的小额贷款公司，能深深扎根于中小（微）企业，有效缓解“贷款难”的问题。二、XX市小额贷款市场需求分析根据XX市十二五发展规划，“十二五”时期，XX经济社会发展的总体目标是：着力打造全国重要的先进制造业中心、现代服务业中心和综合性国家高技术产业基地、全国性综合交通枢纽基地，加快建设全国两型社会综合配套改革试验区和国家自主创新示范区，巩固提升中部地区中心城市地位和作用，努力建设国家中心城市，全面完成小康社会建设的目标任务，为把XX建成现代化国际性城市奠定坚实基础。着力履行国家战略使命，积极融入国家战略布局，全面推进XX87、国家自主创新示范区建设和两型社会建设综合配套改革试验，在承担国家发展战略中重振XX雄风，努力建设国家中心城市。目前，为推动城乡统筹发展以及扶持中小（微）企业，XX市正在推行一系列改革措施。其中重要一条是要推进城市金融制度改革，采取设立创业担保基金、中小（微）企业创业基金以及贴息贷款等方式，积极支持和引导金融机构建立适应新型生产方式的贷款公司和社区性金融合作组织，探索建立适应城市统筹发展的新型信用机制，充分发挥小额贷款公司的作用，加大对中小（微）企业的金融支持力度。因此，利用XX市城市统筹改革的契机，设立小额贷款公司符合经济发展要求和XX市经济发展的规划。同时，城市经济的发展也蕴育着巨大的包括小88、额贷款在内的金融服务需求市场。三、市场前景（一）小额贷款公司的SWOT模型分析1、优势 （1）中央和地方政府政策支持，市场需求潜力大；（2）运作模式灵活，效率较高，资产质量较好；（3）贷款分散，单笔金额较小，具备较强的抗风险能力，后发优势强；（4）引入先进管理机制，市场应对能力灵活。2、劣势 （1）属新兴行业，经营和管理经验不够丰富；（2）行业性质特殊，风险防范和控制经验不足；（3）微型企业和个体借款客户分布较为分散，管理成本相对较高；（4）网点规模较少，在一定程度上影响综合竞争能力。3、机会 （1）XX市经济的高速增长为小额贷款公司发展提供了较大的增长潜力，市场有较大的发展空间； （2）我国89、目前中小型企业特别是微小创新企业金融市场融资渠道较少、资金需求量大的局面迫切要求小额贷款公司的出现；（3）我国金融业分工趋势将进一步加强，面对特定群体的贷款产品将进一步丰富；（4）XX市城乡统筹改革对中小企业信用担保公司和小额贷款公司以大力支持和引导，建立适应城乡统筹发展的新型信用机制，给小额贷款公司提供了历史机遇。4、威胁 （1）金融行业市场竞争激烈，获利下降；（2）外资银行强势介入，对城乡金融市场构成竞争威胁；通过SWOT模型分析，在XX市设立小额贷款公司，符合国家政策，面临较大的历史机遇，如能充分发挥优势和机遇，避免劣势和威胁，通过完善治理结构，大力拓展业务市场，具有良好的发展前景。（二90、）结论通过前述的市场状况分析，我国目前的金融市场发展不均衡，特别是城市金融和微型企业的融资渠道单一，借款品种单一，严重制约了XX市及其城区经济、金融的快速发展。严峻的挑战意味着巨大的机遇，目前我国小额贷款市场供给远低于需求，特别是城郊养殖户、个体工商户及微型企业的借款需求旺盛。XX市对农业和农村经济发展的目标规划和现代都市农业经济的培育也蕴育着较大的贷款需求，因此成立小额贷款公司具有广阔的市场前景。第四章 未来业务发展规划一、市场定位和发展目标在XX市设立科技小额贷款公司，将遵循“创新发展、稳健经营、专业规范”的基本原则，按照以完全市场化的方式经营，公司近期的市场定位和发展方向是：（一）近期目91、标规划公司成立后，近期将主要面向XX市重点城区市场，及涉农企业（农户）、个体工商户、科技小（微）型企业，适度发展科技创新企业小额贷款市场。一年后在XX市小额贷款市场拥有绝对优势地位，两至三年内成为在XX市小额贷款行业具有较大影响力的企业。（二）中期目标规划公司成立后的第三至六年，在市场方面，在继续巩固城区重点创新企业市场的同时，拓展市场领域将业务范围覆盖到XX市所有乡镇企业的小额贷款市场。在给农户和个体工商户提供贷款的同时，加大对高成长或具有较大潜力的小（微）型企业的小额贷款支持力度。重点培育一批长期合作、有信誉、有发展前景的战略型客户。在资金实力方面，公司通过投资人追加投入和自身积累，进一步92、增强资金实力，计划将注册资本金从五仟万增加到一亿二仟万元人民币，同时通过向金融机构融借资金，将公司的贷款余额扩大到一亿伍仟万元以上，将公司发展成为XX市小额贷款行业中的龙头企业。（三）长期目标规划公司成立六年后，全面进军XX市小额贷款市场，力争将公司的业务范围向全市拓展，新增联络网点10个。此外，进一步壮大公司实力，将公司注册资本金增至两亿元人民币，贷款余额放大到三亿元以上，为更多的农户、个体工商户和微型企业提供小额贷款服务，并通过提供前期的小额贷款，孵化和培育一批具有良好成长性的中小型企业。同时，狠抓公司的规范化和制度流程建设，建立一个具有良好金融文化，治理结构清晰，管理规范，经济效益和社会93、效益显著的小额贷款公司，在全市树立一面小额贷款公司的旗帜。二、财务预测说明（一）贷款业务1、业务结构科技小额贷款公司主要为XX市城区经济发展服务，业务范围主要为个体工商户和小（微）型企业发放小额贷款。2、利率小额贷款公司将按照市场化原则经营，贷款利率上限放开，但不超过同期贷款基准利率的四倍，下限为人民银行公布的贷款基准利率的0.9倍。（二）融资借款1、融资借款规模根据规定，小额贷款公司的主要资金来源为股东缴纳的资本金、捐赠资金，以及来自不超过两个银行业金融机构的融入资金，从银行业金融机构获得融入资金的余额，不超过资本净额的50%。根据前述市场定位和业务规划，确定未来三年向金融机构融入资金规模如94、下：表4-1：未来三年向金融机构融入资金规模表项 目2012年2013年2014年融资借入金额（万元）200024002500注册资本（万元）500050005000占注册资本比例40%48%50%预计资本净额（万元）5535.45 5721.19 5759.66 预计占资本净额比例36%42%43%2、融资借款利率向金融机构借款利率按人民银行2011年7月1日公布的金融机构人民币贷款基准利率调整表为基础确定，考虑融资借款一般为三至五年的中长期贷款，本次预测按借款基准利率7.74%确定。（三）税率小额贷款公司涉及的主要税种为营业税和企业所得税。其中：营业税税率为5%，企业所得税税率为25%。（95、四）经营规模经分析，近年来社会存贷款总额基本与国民经济发展保持同向增长趋势，存贷款增长率高于GDP发展速度：2010年，XX市国民生产总值年均增长率为12.1%；贷款年增长率为18.55%。可以预计，在未来较长一段时间内，XX市国民经济将继续平稳发展，经济增长率将持续保持在12%左右，贷款额也将保持18%左右的增长速度。为小额贷款公司的快速、平稳发展提供了有力保证。小额贷款公司成立后，服务范围以XX市中小微企业为基础，将通过竞争，逐步增加对金融机构的融资、增加网点、扩大影响范围、提升服务、稳定客户等措施，增强竞争能力，预期未来三年内将服务范围覆盖到整城区乡镇镇，发放贷款按注册资本和融资借款总额96、的75%-80%确定。预测小额贷款公司未来三年经营规模如下：表4-2：小额贷款公司未来三年经营规模表项 目2012年2013年2014年对外贷款金额（万元）525055505625对外融资金额（万元）200024002500（五）收入预测小额贷款公司主要业务为对外发放小额贷款。业务收入为利息收入。利息收入平均按同期贷款基准利率的三倍计算确定。（六）成本和费用预测小额贷款公司的主要成本和费用为：融资借入资金利息支出、资产损失、综合管理费用及其他支出等。利息支出按前述适用的利率计算确定。综合管理费用，包括薪酬及相关费用、招待费、办公费、日常经营管理费用、业务宣传费、折旧费、监管及其他费用等，参照行97、业平均水平，按利息收入的20%计。资产损失根据谨慎性原则，对各项资产预计可能发生的损失合理计提。（七）其它说明前期所需的经营场地以租赁取得为主，第一年以安排投资200万元投资于公司开办、信息及管理系统建设。同时，按网点设立进度，每个网点预计投入50万元用于经营场地装修及相关设施购置。三、预测财务报表根据上述条件，预测小额贷款公司近期（未来三年）财务报表如下：表4-3：预计资产负债表（简表）金额单位：万元项 目2012年2013年2014年资产现金96.64 100.49 98.69 银行存款1514.36 1596.611422.51 存放中央银行330.00 412.50 495.00 债券98、投资贷款5250.00 5550.00 5625.00 其中：正常贷款4987.50 5275.50 5343.75 后四类贷款262.50 277.50 281.25 其中：关注183.75194.25 196.88 次级52.50 55.50 56.25 可疑21.0022.20 22.50 损失5.25 5.55 5.63 减：贷款损失准备32.55 34.4134.88 股权投资 固定资产原值390.00 540.00 740.00 减：累计折旧13.00 44.00 86.67 固定资产净值377.00 496.00 653.33 其他资产资产总计7535.45 8121.19 8299、59.66 负债 融资借款2000.00 2500.00 3000.00 其中：短期融资借款 长期融资借款2000.00 2500.00 3000.00 同业存入 其它负债负债合计2000.00 2400.00 2500.00 实收资本资本公积5000.00 5000.00 5000.00 盈余公积一般准备及法定储备金106.05 122.37126.67 未分配利润429.41598.82 632.99 股东权益合计5535.45 5721.19 5759.66 负债和股东权益总计7535.45 8121.19 8259.66 表4-4：预计利润表（简表）单位：万元年 度2012年2013年100、2014年利息收入1219.05 1480.28 1527.35 利息支出154.80 185.76 193.50 净利息收入1064.25 1294.52 1373.85 手续费及佣金收支净额净交易收入1064.25 1294.52 1373.85 投资(损失)/收益其它业务收支净额营业费用及其他支出243.81 296.06 313.47 折旧13.00 31.00 42.67 营业税金及附加60.95 74.01 78.37 营业利润746.49 893.45 939.34 营业外收支净额扣除资产减值损失前利润总额746.49 893.45 939.34 资产减值准备32.55 4.86101、0.47 利润总额713.94 891.59 938.88 所得税178.48 222.90 234.72净利润535.45 668.69 704.16 加：年初未分配利润0.00 429.41 598.82 减：提取一般准备52.50 3.000.75 提取资本公积公积 提取盈余公积53.55 66.87 70.42 分配股利429.41 598.82 未分配利润429.41 598.82 632.99 四、盈利能力分析根据上表预测，公司（未来三年）盈利能力指标如下：表4-5：未来三年盈利能力指标表项 目2012年2013年2014年合 计总资产规模（万元）7535.45 8121.19 8102、259.66 净利息收入（万元）1064.251294.52 1373.85 3,732.62 净交易收入（万元）1064.251294.52 1373.85 3,732.62 年利润总额（万元）713.94 891.59 938.88 2,544.40 净利润（万元）535.45 668.69 704.16 1,908.30 资产利润率(%)7.11%8.23%8.53%资本利润率(%)9.67%11.69%12.23%从预测数据看，公司收入水平逐年上升，随着经营规模的增加，其收益率保持稳定上升水平。五、主要核心指标分析根据预计未来三年资产负债表，公司未来三年其他主要核心指标如下：表4-6：103、未来三年其他主要核心指标表 项目标准值2012年2013年2014年融资借款、贷款比例75%38.10%43.24%44.44%不良贷款率5%1.50%1.50%1.50%资本充足率8%110.73%106.60%101.82%贷款损失准备充足率100%261.29%261.29%261.29%由上述预测指标可以看出，小额贷款公司的信用风险都控制在较低的水平内，贷款损失准备充足率和资本充足率较高，具有较强的风险控制和风险抵补能力，符合监管要求。六、财务状况评价根据上述财务预测，该小额贷款公司经营规模逐年稳健扩大，经营利润稳步增长，具有较强的盈利能力。资本充足率、贷款损失准备充足率等风险控制指标104、大大高于监管标准的要求，经营和财务风险可以有效控制，公司的安全性和持续发展能力较好。因此，从各项财务指标预测，成立该小额贷款公司在经济上具有可行性。第五章 风险分析及应对小额贷款公司是提供信贷服务的特殊企业，其经营活动具有较高的风险。成立小额贷款公司后，将遵循商业银行市场风险管理指引、商业银行内部控制指引相关规定，借鉴国内外同行业先进经验，针对经营可能出现的风险制定如下管理措施，以确保各项风险得到有效管理和控制。一、信用风险信用风险是小额贷款公司在经营贷款业务时，由于客户违约或资信下降而给公司造成损失的可能和收益的不确定性。针对信用风险拟采取以下措施：完善信贷管理规章制度；改革信贷运行管理体制105、；实行严格的分级授权、审贷分离和集体审批制度；建立客户授信和信用评级制度；统一和规范公司贷款业务操作规程；完善信贷业务担保和以物抵债管理；不断强化贷前调查、贷时审查、贷后检查的“贷款三查”和信贷准入、运行、退出的信贷全过程管理；实行信贷资产风险五级分类制度并细化五级分类操作办法；建立信贷管理信息系统；参照国际通行做法，遵循审慎的信贷、会计原则，合理计提各项准备。通过采取上述措施，使信贷资产质量在同业中处于较好水平。在组织架构上，设立专门的信贷审批委员会，统一信贷管理，加强风险控制，完善信贷审批工作流程；建立信贷经营、信贷审批、信贷管理的“三分管”体系，强化信贷经营、管理机构的相互分离和相互制约106、。在管理流程上，进一步完善信贷市场准入、运行和退出机制：建立专职审批人制度，提高审批质量和审批效率；强化资产保全部门的工作职能，提高资产保全工作的质量和效率。在责任机制上，建立经营主责任人和审批主责任人制度，进一步明确信贷岗位职责，强化岗位责任的约束，培养诚信尽责的信贷管理文化；对没有尽职履行岗位职责的有关责任人实行岗位风险责任处罚。在风险管理措施上，全面实施和进一步细化信贷资产风险分类制度，建立信用风险监测、评估、控制、补偿管理框架，提升风险管理水平；实行严格的信贷资产质量考核制度，严格控制新增不良贷款，大力清收和化解存量不良资产。在客户管理上，积极推行“发展一批、巩固一批、调整一批、淘汰一107、批”的客户分类管理，培育和发展基本客户群体，淘汰素质差、风险高的劣质客户，优化和调整信贷客户结构。二、营运风险1、资本充足率为保证小额贷款公司具有较高的抗风险能力，同时符合银行业监管要求，公司成立后拟将保持资本充足率高于8%的要求，并采取以下措施：（1）建立畅通的资本补充机制，优化和改善公司的资本结构；（2）强化资产负债比例管理，保持业务发展与资本增长相适应；（3）调整和优化资产结构，提高资产质量，降低经营风险，提高运营效益。2、流动性风险流动性风险是当小额贷款企业不能满足自身融资支付和合理的贷款发放而给自身业务所带来的影响。为降低流动性风险，拟采取以下措施：（1）通过制定和完善流动性管理机制108、和流动性风险量化管理目标，切实提高资产负债管理比例的综合管理水平；（2）建立科学的流动性风险指标监控体系，监控存贷比、备付金率，按月监控贷款比例、资金流动比例等流动性管理指标，通过信贷收支监控，随时掌握和预测公司的资金头寸状况；（3）加强资产业务管理，提高资产业务质量，保证信贷资金的按期收回；加强对信贷资金需求和贷款协议执行情况的预测，确保信贷投放与回收计划得到落实；（4）优化和改善负债结构，提高负债业务的经营管理水平；（5）积极参与货币市场运作，建立通畅的资金融通渠道。三、管理风险为控制因治理结构不合理，控制制度不完善，市场反应不灵敏，操作程序和标准出现偏差，业务人员违反程序规定，内控系统不109、能有效识别、提示和制止违规行为和不当操作等导致的操作风险，拟采取以下措施：1、授信管理：对重点客户和有信誉的长期客户，建立客户统一授信管理体系和客户评信系统；建立依据客户的经营与财务状况和公司承受风险的能力核定客户授信额度的管理方法；贯彻审慎的信贷、会计原则，完善风险分类和呆账准备金管理制度；加强信贷管理信息系统建设，提高授信风险管理的整体效能。2、内部控制：形成有效的内部控制体系组织与机构控制、公司员工管理、授信业务控制、资金业务控制、流动性风险的控制、贷款业务控制、会计业务控制、稽核与监察控制等。通过不断强化内部控制措施、健全内部控制体系，使公司的管理行为得到全面规范、经营风险得到有效控制110、，各项业务在依法、合规、安全、稳健的基础上迅速发展。3、岗位职责与业务流程：不断对岗位职责和管理流程进行完善和补充，强调主要业务流程的统一性；对会计、信贷、资金、结算等实施统一操作规范，确保公司业务操作的一致性，形成覆盖所有业务和服务内容的业务操作规程，适应业务发展需要。4、治理结构：建立股东会、董事会、监事会和高级管理层之间的权力制衡与利益制衡机制、科学决策机制与激励约束机制，配合以严密的内部控制制度，达到“分散风险、聚集资本和管理专业化”的目标；按照现代企业治理结构的要求，逐步完善经营决策、人力资源管理、风险控制、内部审计、信息披露和激励约束等运行管理体系。四、竞争风险针对与市内同行和银行111、等金融机构之间的市场竞争风险，拟通过实施优质客户战略，建立优质客户群体，通过完善客户经理制和整体营销体制，提高市场份额；通过实施重点区域发展战略，优化资源配置；通过加强流程制度建设，不断提高综合管理水平。五、法律风险为应对在经营管理过程中面临的法律风险，拟采取以下措施：坚持依法合规经营为经营宗旨，制定系统的管理办法和管理程序，在公司发展到一定阶段后，成立法律事务部专门承担所有法律事务和诉讼案件处理的职责，并定期对规章制度进行检查评估，保证其与相关法律法规相适应；风险控制部门和各个业务部门按照各自职责，承担对各项业务的合法合规性的检查监督，以保证小额贷款公司在法律范围内正常经营、享有相应权利并承112、担相应义务。第六章 结论通过对相关背景、设立方案、市场前景分析、财务预测、以及对风险管理和内部控制的全面分析，我们对设立小额贷款公司可行性得出如下结论：XX地区经济尚处于后高速发展期，相对落后的第三方金融业将在政策的大力支持下迎来新的历史发展机遇，而其竞争和混沌状态的市场将为行业带来新的变局，城乡金融市场中新兴金融组织形式必将大量涌现，小额贷款公司正是其中之一。由此，在XX市设立科技小额贷款公司，符合国家对城市金融改革的客观要求，可以更加主动地应对城市金融改革变局所产生的机遇与挑战。XX市金融业第三方业务相对落后的现状和尚未均衡的市场，为小额贷款公司行业发展预留了较大的发展空间，也为本项目发展113、提供了新的契机。因此，设立XX市科技小额贷款公司具有必要性和可行性。 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