1、 D DE EV VE EL LOOP PMME EN NT T OOF F P PL LOOT T WW1 19 9 WWI IT THHI IN N S SHHA AN NGGHHA AI I C CA AOOHHE EJ JI IN NGG HHI I-T TE EC CHH P PA AR RKK 上上上上海海海海漕漕漕漕河河河河泾泾泾泾工工工工业业业业园园园园区区区区 WW1 19 9 地地地地块块块块综综综综合合合合开开开开发发发发项项项项目目目目 DEVELOPMENT CONSULTANCY SERVICES FINAL REPORT 策策策策划划划划及及及及咨咨咨咨询询询询服2、服服服务务务务 报报报报告告告告终终终终稿稿稿稿 二零零四年十二月二零零四年十二月 DECEMB BE ER R 2 20 00 04 4 Chapter章节章节 Page页码页码 1.0 INTRODUCTION简介简介 1 1.1 BACKGROUND 任务介绍1 1.2 SCOPE OF WORK 服务内容 2 1.3 REPORT STRUCTURE 报告结构2 2.0 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 项目开发规划建议项目开发规划建议 3 2.1 DEVELOPMENT SUGGESTIONS TO THE WHOLE SUBJECTED PROJECT3、总体项目开发建议 3 2.2 DEVELOPMENT SUGGESTIONS TO HOTEL酒店开发建议 10 2.3 DEVELOPMENT SUGGESTIONS TO OFFICE BUILDING办公楼开发建议 14 2.4 DEVELOPMENT SUGGESTIONS TO SERVICE APARTMENT 酒店式公寓开发建议18 2.5 DEVELOPMENT SUGGESTIONS TO RETAIL 零售商业开发建议 25 2.6 SUGGESTIONS TO PHASING开发分期建议 32 3.0 MACROECONOMIC&POLICY OVERVIEW宏观经济政策4、分析宏观经济政策分析 39 3.1 MACRO ECONOMY IN SHANGHAI上海宏观经济分析39 3.2 MACRO ECONOMY OF XUHUI DISTRICT徐汇区经济分析 51 3.3 GOVERNMENT POLICIES ANALYSIS 政策研究 56 4.0 SITE ANALYSIS 地块研究地块研究 63 4.1 INTRODUCTION OF THE SITE地块简介63 4.2 INDUSTRIAL ENVIRONMENT ANALYSIS 产业环境分析 65 4.3 LIVING FACILITIES AROUND THE SITE 周边环境设施调查685、 4.4 TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM ANALYSIS 交通系统分析72 4.5 SWOT ANALYSIS SWOT 分析83 4.6 SUMMARY 小结 85 5.0 SERVICE APARTMENT MARKET ANALYSIS 服务式公寓物业市场分析服务式公寓物业市场分析87 5.1 TRADITIONAL STYLE SERVICE APARTMENT MARKET ANALYSIS传统服务式酒店公寓市场分析 87 5.2 STRATA-TITLED SERVICE APARTMENT ANALYSIS产权式酒店公寓市场分析 90 5.3 REGIONAL MA6、RKET ANALYSIS 区域市场分析99 5.4 MARKET CONCLUSIONS 市场小结 110 6.0 OFFICE MARKET ANALYSIS 办公楼物业市场分析办公楼物业市场分析 112 6.1 SHANGHAI OFFICE MARKET OVERLOOK 上海办公楼市场概况 112 6.2 REGIONAL MARKET ANALYSIS 区域市场分析118 6.3 MARKET CONCLUSIONS 市场小结 133 7.0 HOTEL MARKET ANALYSIS酒店物业市场分析酒店物业市场分析137 7.1 SHANGHAI HOTEL MARKET OVE7、RLOOK 上海市酒店市场概况 137 7.2 REGIONAL MARKET ANALYSIS区域市场分析 142 7.3 MARKET CONCLUSIONS 市场小结 146 8.0 RETAIL MARKET ANALYSIS零售物业市场分析零售物业市场分析 148 8.1 SHANGHAI RETAIL MARKET OVERLOOK上海零售市场概况 148 8.2 REGIONAL MARKET ANALYSIS区域市场分析 152 8.3 MARKET CONCLUSIONS市场小结174 9.0 COMPETITION ANALYSIS 竞争分析竞争分析 176 9.1 SER8、VICE APARTMENT MARKET 酒店公寓市场 176 9.2 OFFICE MARKET 办公楼市场 184 9.3 HOTEL MARKET 酒店市场190 9.4 RETAIL MARKET 零售市场 197 9.5 SUMMARY小结 206 10.0 DEVELOPMENT SCENARIO备选开发方案评估备选开发方案评估 208 10.1 OPTION ONE 方案一 209 10.2 OPTION TWO方案二 215 10.3 COMPARISON BETWEEN OPTOIN 1 AND OPTION 2 方案一和方案二优劣评选218 10.4 OPTION THR9、EE 方案三222 10.5 COMPARISON BETWEEN OPTOIN 1 AND OPTION 3 方案一和方案二优劣评选 223 10.6 CASH FLOW BEFORE TAX OF OPTION 1,OPTION 2 AND OPTION 3 225 11.0 PRELIMINARY FINANCIAL ANALYSIS 初步财务分析初步财务分析228 11.1 THE FUNDAMENTAL PARAMETER AND SCHEME 项目开发基本参数及建设方案 228 11.2 FINANCIAL ANALYSIS RESULT OF HOTEL酒店产品财务分析结果 2310、5 11.3 FINANCIAL ANALYSIS RESULT OF OFFICE BUILDING 办公楼产品财务分析结果238 11.4 FINANCIAL ANALYSIS RESULT OF SERVICE APARTMENT 酒店式公寓产品财务分析结果 240 11.5 FINANCIAL ANALYSIS RESULT OF STRATA-TITLED SERVICE APARTMENT 产权式酒店公寓产品财务分析结果 242 11.6 FINANCIAL ANALYSIS RESULT OF RETAIL SHOPPING PLAZA休闲购物广场产品财务分析结果 244 11.11、7 FINANCIAL ANALYSIS RESULT OF RESTAURANTS 餐饮产品财务分析结果 246 11.8 FINANCIAL ANALYSIS RESULT OF ENTERTAINMENT COMMERCE 娱乐产品财务分析结果 248 11.9 FINANCIAL ANALYSIS RESULT OF SPORT AND LEISURE CENTER 运动休闲产品财务分析结果 250 11.10 FINANCIAL ANALYSIS OF THE WHOLE PROJECT 项目整体财务分析 252 11.11 SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS 敏感性分析 2512、4 12.0 PROMOTION STRATEGIES市场推广策略市场推广策略 255 12.1 PROPERTY RIGHT HANDLING产权处置策略255 12.2 PROMOTION TACTICS推广策略建议257 13.0 DESIGNING BRIEF 设计要点设计要点 262 13.1 PRINCIPLES 设计原则262 13.2 OVERALL LAYOUT 整体布局 263 13.3 ORGANIZATION OF TRANSPOATATION交通组织264 13.4 LANDSCAPE 绿化景观 265 13.5 BUILDING STYLE 建筑风格及造型267 113、3.6 DESIGN BRIEF OF HOTEL 酒店设计 268 13.7 DESIGN BRIEF OF OFFICE 写字楼空间设计 271 13.8 DESIGN BRIEF OF SERVICED APARTMENT COMPLEX AND STRATA-TITLED APARTMENT BUILDINGS 服务式酒店公寓及产权式酒店公寓设计276 13.9 DESIGN BRIEF OF RETAIL DEVELOPMENE COMPONENT 商业部分设计278 13.10 DESIGN BRIEF OF SPORTS CENTER COMPONENT 运动休闲中心设计 28114、 13.11 GENERAL DESIGN COMMENTS 整体项目配套设施282 Chapter 1 Introduction 简介 1 Chapter 1 Introduction 第一部分第一部分 简介简介 1.1 Background CB Richard Ellis(“CBRE”)was appointed by the Shanghai Caohejing Hi-Tech Park New Development Co.,Ltd.in Sep.2004 to provide the professional service in relation to the developme15、nt of Plot W19 within the Caohejing Hi-Tech Park.The purpose of the assignment is to confirm the optimum scale of the different components of the proposed development,in the light of the characteristics of the site,market trends,potential competition,projected levels of demand,international experien16、ce,and the financial viability of the project.A further objective is to identify the appropriate development concept which will maximize the level of financial return to be generated by the scheme,and to develop an appropriate strategy and program relating to the implementation of the project.Meanwh17、ile,the positive role played by the site development to Caohejing will be put into consideration.世邦魏理仕物业顾问有限公司很荣幸接受上海漕河泾开发区高科技园发展有限公司的委托，对漕河泾工业园区 W19 地块综合开发项目进行顾问咨询服务。本次服务最终要达到的目的是根据 W19 地块特征、周边市场发展趋势，前在竞争对手、市场需求水平、国际经验和财务可行性为项目用地确定最合适的发展规模、内容组合。同时通过主题的开发和有关项目的执行策略和步骤确定合适的发展概念以使资金回报最大化，并考虑地块开发对整个漕河泾18、开发区整体利益提高、增值的作用。1.2 Scope of Work It was agreed that the scope of work associated with this mix-use site consultancy would involve the following tasks:经讨论确定，报告研究的涉及范围如下：BASELINE REVIEW 基础分析 REVIEW OF COPORATION OBJECTIVES 了解发展商的开发目标 ECONOMIC,DEMOGRAPHIC AND POLICY REVIEW 经济、人口和政策分析 MARKET RESEARCH 市19、场研究 COMPETITION ANALYSIS 竞争市场分析 Chapter 1 Introduction 简介 2 FORMULATION OF DEVELOPMENT SCENARIOS 明确项目发展内容 FINANCIAL ANALYSIS 财务分析 1.3 Report Structure INTRODUCTION简介 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 项目开发规划建议 MACROECONOMIC&POLICY OVERVIEW宏观经济政策分析 SITE ANALYSIS 地块研究 SERVICE APARTMENT MARKET ANALYSIS住宅物20、业市场分析 OFFICE MARKET ANALYSIS 办公楼物业市场分析 HOTEL MARKET ANALYSIS酒店物业市场分析 RETAIL MARKET ANALYSIS零售物业市场分析 COMPETITION ANALYSIS 竞争分析 DEVELOPMENT SCENARIO备选开发方案评估 PRELIMINARY FINANCIAL ANALYSIS 初步财务分析 PROMOTION STRATEGIES市场推广策略 Chapter 2 Recommendations 项目开发规划建议 3Chapter 2 Recommendations 第二部分第二部分 项目开发规划建议项21、目开发规划建议 In conducting this assignment,CBRE conducted detailed research on the subject site,its surrounding environment,accessibility and the transportation system,municipal planning and commercial and residential facilities.Based on our research and analysis CBRE identified the advantages and disadv22、antages of the site as well as the opportunities and threats faced by the subject site.在前面的部分中，本公司首先进行了地块基础分析，对拟开发地盘进行了深入细致的评估，研究了地块周边的规划，交通，配套情况，并挖掘地块的优势及限制性因素。Based on our macro economic analysis and the respective Government policies and regulations for Shanghai and Xuhui districts,CBRE concludes23、,that the existing macro economic situation and future trend provide a favorable environment to develop the subject project.在报告之经济、人口及政策规划分析中，本报告考察了上海市整体及徐汇区的投资环境和房地产开发政策，认为目前及未来几年上海市整体及徐汇区的宏观经济及政策环境使本案项目各开发内容具备了良好的时机及宏观基础。We recommend,that four real estate sectorial types can be developed on the su24、bject site.The recommended real estate sectors to be developed at the subject site include retail,service apartment,hotel and office.In making these development recommendations we have specifically identified the potential competition for each recommended sectorial development,in order to position a25、nd differentiate the subject project.我们认为，本项目适合发展的物业类型共四类，分别是商业，酒店式公寓，写字楼，酒店。为了给出准确定位的开发建议，我们对各个功能中可能的潜在竞争项目进行了仔细的研究，以便有针对性的对各物业进行定位及开发建议。We have provided our competition analysis in Chapter 9.The competition outlines the competitive supply and provides a SWOT analysis.It then provides our developme26、nt recommendations in terms of the type,quantum and market positioning for the subject development.在本报告的第九部分，本报告对拟建项目的竞争市场进行初步总结，为提出初步功能定位及市场定位建议提供分析基础。Chapter 2 Recommendations 项目开发规划建议 4 Three development options have been presented based on our research and analysis.The three options financial vi27、ability and market feasibility have been tested.The three options are both financially and market supportable.However Option 1 is the more market and financial supportable than option two.When comparing option 1 and option 3,option 1 is more helpful to achieve the whole positioning of the site while28、 option 3 is a more financial feasible scenario.We therefore recommend Option 1 as the preferred development scenario but also list option 3 for reference considering the funding condition of the developer.并在第十部分基于前面研究基础上提供了三个备选开发方案，并对三个方案进行了市场可行性及财务可行性方面的分析，结果表明，本公司初步建议的三个方案在市场及经济上都是可行的，且方案一在市场及财务可29、行性方面均优于方案二。方案一和方案三相比，方案一能更好地实现项目整体定位，但方案三有更强的资金可操作性。因此，本公司将方案一作为推荐建议方案，同时补充列出方案三，供开发商自行选择。Based on our financial analysis the following table presents the financial results of Option 1,Option 2(a)and Option 3.Properties Option1 Option2(a)Option3 Hotel 41,600M2/41,600M2 Office 110,000M2 272,264M2 11030、,000M2 Service Apartment 40,000M2 40,000M2 40,000M2 Strata-titled Apartment 96,000 M2 96,000 M2 96,000 M2 Retail/Retail Services 9,000 M2 9,000 M2 9,000 M2 Retail/Food&Beverage 7000 M2 7000 M2 7000 M2 Retail/Entertainment 5,600 M2 5,600 M2 5,600 M2 Sports Center 8,000 M2 8,000 M2 8,000 M2 Total GFA 31、317,200 M2 437,864 M2 317,200 M2 Total Investment RMB(before tax)2,021,580,0001,833,510,000 1,017,945,000NPV(before tax)515,332,400 469,656,800 886,622,000 Chapter 2 Recommendations 项目开发规划建议 5IRR(before tax)12.39%12.47%14.72%Year of Payback 11 years 10 years 10 years 通过财务分析比较，三个方案的比较如下：物业类型物业类型 方案一方32、案一 方案二（方案二（A）方案三方案三 酒店 41,600M2/41,600M2 写字楼 110,000M2 272,264M2 110,000M2 服务式酒店公寓（只租不售）40,000M2 40,000M2 40,000M2 产权式酒店公寓 96,000 M2 96,000 M2 96,000 M2 商业/休闲购物广场 9,000 M2 9,000 M2 9,000 M2 商业/餐饮 7000 M2 7000 M2 7000 M2 商业/娱乐 5,600 M2 5,600 M2 5,600 M2 运动休闲中心 8,000 M2 8,000 M2 8,000 M2 总建筑面积 317,20033、 M2 437,864 M2 317,200 M2 税前总投资额（人民币）2,021,580,0001,833,510,000 1,017,945,000税前净现值（人民币）515,332,400 469,656,800 886,622,000 税前内部收益率 12.39%12.47%14.72%税前投资回收期 11 年 10 年 10 年 Chapter 2 Recommendations 项目开发规划建议 62.1.1.Market positioning for the Subject Project 总体项目市场定位总体项目市场定位 Based on the following poi34、nts:GDP of Shanghai has been enjoying double digit growth over the past several years and is expected to keep such increase in the future.Such strong macro economy will provide the subject project with favorable environment and a solid foundation.上海连续多年实现 GDP 两位数的高速增长，预计未来上海的经济仍将保持增长。上海国民经济的持续增长为房地产35、市场发展提供了有力的支撑及坚实的基础。Shanghais economy attracts more and more foreign investment,which has generated large demand for middle-high end service apartments,hotel,office building,restaurants and entertainment facilities.Such demand will keep growing in the near future.由于城市竞争力的不断加强，投资环境的不断优化，上海对外商投资的吸引力正不断36、增加。外资的大量进入增加了对上海中高档服务性公寓、酒店、办公楼及餐饮娱乐设施的市场需求。GDP of Xuhui district accounts for an important part of the overall economy of Shanghai.Fast development of Xuhui economy,especially of the industries like retail,real estate,hi-tech industries creates an active and beneficial environment for the subject p37、roject.自 2000 年以来，徐汇区的 GDP 占上海市全市的比重居于重要的地位，徐汇区的经济总量、工业、商业、房地产、高科技产业开发等高速发展，为本案房地产项目创造了积极的外部环境。As one of the most famous and advanced Hi-Tech Park in Shanghai,Caohejing Hi-Tech Park has built up outstanding industrial advantages with clear industry positioning and will have great potential for futur38、e development.But lack of commercial facilities leaves the area with a lot of unsatisfied commercial needs.Large capacity of potential market for hotel and service apartment will stimulate development of retail and office building,and vice versa.漕河泾开发区作为上海市最著名的，发展最早、最完善的高科技开发区，已经培育出高科技产业集聚的产业环境优势，产业39、定位清晰，发展潜力很大。但区域内人口密度低，缺乏商业配套设施和商业氛围。因此区域内存在大量未被满足的潜在市场需求。存在众多的零售商业及酒店消费需求，并刺激办公楼市场和酒店式服务公寓的发展。Chapter 2 Recommendations 项目开发规划建议 7 There are currently no definite largescale commercial development masterplans for the South-West of Shanghai.This provides a“window of opportunity”for the Caohejing Hi-T40、ech Park to position/enhance itself in the South-West of Shanghai.根据目前上海西南部尚无大体量的商务规划的现状，漕河泾开发区在上海西南部的影响力以及漕河泾目前周边产业地块缺乏商贸腹地将彼此连接起来的现状，我们做出如下建议。An enhanced image for the Caohejing Hi-Tech Park precinct will help to make a tangible“branding”for the Hi-Tech Park zone,which could be named“Platinum Base41、 for Shanghais South-West”,to attract hi-tech and upstream/downstream ancillary businesses and create new tax revenue,providing multiple functions to satisfy and service the commerical needs and requirements of the existing and future Caohejing Hi-Tech park businesses and occupants as well as penetr42、ation and improvement of different functions,providing scenes of abundant senses,a combination of Commercial,F&B,sporting,leisure and supporting retail facilities 提升后的漕河泾开发区功能区域塑造一个高科技开发区的名片，吸引人流，培育税源，获得功能的主题化和多样性，功能之间的渗透与促进.提供丰富的感观（视觉、听觉)享受的场景，并融合商务、餐饮、运动、休闲及居住等综合体验。We recommend,that the positionin43、g of the W19 site of the Caohejing Hi-Tech park be the Commercial Gate of Shanghais South-West.The branding could be Commercial Platinum Base of Caohejing Hi-Tech Park.我们建议将漕河泾西区 W19 地块综合开发项目定位成上海西南部商贸门户，漕河泾开发区商贸白金腹地。2.1.2 SWOT analysis for the Subject Project 整体项目整体项目 SWOT 分析分析 Strengths 优势优势 The s44、ubject site is located in the Caohejing Hi-Tech Park with clear industrial positioning of high-tech industries like micro-electrics,computer and software,telecom and biology engineering.Aggregate effect in the park will make the subject site attract more companies especially hi-tech companies.Chapte45、r 2 Recommendations 项目开发规划建议 8 W19 地块位于漕河泾高科技产业开发区内，区域产业定位明晰，对微电子、计算机及软件、生物工程、精细化工、新材料、通信、仪器仪表等高科技产业形成很强的产业聚积力。园区内工业研发所需多功能办公楼、厂房和供电、环保等基础设施配套完善。There are some famous universities in the area such as Shanghai Jiaotong University,East China University of Technology and Shanghai Normal Univeristy.Thes46、e universities and institutes provide the subject site with strong technological support and hi-tech research capabilities.该区域位于著名理工类综合性大学上海交通大学及其他一些重点大学如华东理工大学、上海师范大学等的辐射范围内，具有很强的科研力量支持和文化研究氛围。Weaknesses 劣势劣势 There is no mature residential area around the subject site.Correspondingly,there are very47、 few commercial facilities.Therefore,the subject site does not attract people from other areas.该地块周边常住人口相对较少，缺乏生活氛围，商业配套设施不完善。无法吸引聚集人流。Opportunities 机会机会 W19 plot is the only land plot,that is approved by the government for commercial use.The other plots of land in Caohejing Hi-Tech Park are all for48、 industrial use.Therefore,there is no commercial development yet in the subject area,except a convenience store on the north of the site.The nearest mature commercial precinct is the Gubei precinct approximately 10 minutes away from the subject site.Commercial demand generated within the Caohejing H49、i-Tech Park is basically going unfulfilled.It appears,that there is a large uncaptured,potential market demand and the subject project could achieve a monopolistic market position to commercial development within the Caohejing Hi-Tech Park.W19 地块为漕河泾开发区内唯一的商业用途地块，其余均为工业用途地块。因此地块周边商业配套设施极度缺乏，地块周边十分钟步50、行距离内仅有一家小型快客便利店。地块周边步行距离范围内无餐饮设施，五分钟车程内仅有一家美林阁上海风味餐饮，十分钟车程内方可到达可提供多样化、大量餐饮设施的古北商圈。为本案项目开发商业配套项目提供了充分的潜在市场需求和垄断性的市场地位。Chapter 2 Recommendations 项目开发规划建议 9Threats 威胁 Zhangjiang Hi-Tech Industrial Park has a similar positioning as Caohejing Park and has already attracted some famous multinational compa51、nies to locate there,for example,Asia-Pacific R&D Center of GE.Zhangjiang Park will be a competitor Park,that will compete for potential clients with Caohejing Park.张江高科技园区的定位与漕河泾开发区定位类同，并且该园区已经吸引了一些跨国公司世界级研发中心如 GE 亚太区研发中心。对本案项目地块高科技产业类招商引资产生显著的分流作用。Gubei precinct is a large,well developed commercia52、l precinct that is approximately 10 minutes away from the subject site.Gubei offers a full-range of retailing including versatile and numerous restaurants,a supermarket,hotels and service apartments.The existence of Gubei precinct limits the catchment area of the subject project.to predominantly the53、 Caohejing Hi-Tech Park.距本案十分钟车程即到古北商圈。古北商圈为一发展成熟的大型多功能商圈，拥有家乐福大卖场、酒店、多样化的餐饮和丰富的社区配套设施。该商圈的存在使本案发展某些特定功能商业业态如大型卖场等不具有足够的市场容量支持。2.1.3.Recommended Development for the Subject Site 总体项目各开发内容建筑面积总体项目各开发内容建筑面积 Property 物业物业 Land area 占地面积占地面积(m2)Construction area 建筑面积合建筑面积合计计（m2）Above ground construction54、 area m2)地地上上(建筑面积建筑面积Under groundconstruction area m2)地下地下(建筑面积建筑面积%(construction area)比例比例(建筑面积建筑面积)Hotel 酒店酒店 10,400 41,600 41,600 2,400 13.11%Office Building 写字楼写字楼 13,750 110,000 110,000 10,000 34.68%Service apartment 服务式酒店公寓服务式酒店公寓 16,000 40,000 40,000 3,000 12.61%Strata-titled service apartme55、nt 产权式酒店公寓产权式酒店公寓 32,000 96,000 96,000 7,000 30.26%Retail Shopping Plaza 6,000 9,000 9,000-2.84%Chapter 2 Recommendations 项目开发规划建议 10休闲购物广场休闲购物广场 F&B 餐饮餐饮 10,000 7,000 7,000-2.21%Entertainment 娱乐娱乐 5,600 5,600 5,600-1.77%Sport Center 运动休闲运动休闲 16,000 8,000 8,000-2.52%Total 总计总计 109,750 317,200 317,2056、0 22,400 100.00%Serviced Apartment服务式酒店公寓Strata-titled Serviced Apartment产权式酒店公寓Twin Office Towers标志型写字楼Food and Beverage Streetscape green space休闲街（包括餐饮、娱乐、绿化）II+IIIIIIIIIIII+IVIIIII+IIIIIIIIIIII+IVIIIIII+IVIII+IVII+IIIII+IIIThree storey Shopping plaza休闲购物中心Sports Center运动休闲中心Food City 美食城Four-star57、 Hotel四星级酒店Serviced Apartment服务式酒店公寓Strata-titled Serviced Apartment产权式酒店公寓Twin Office Towers标志型写字楼Food and Beverage Streetscape green space休闲街（包括餐饮、娱乐、绿化）II+IIIIIIIIIIII+IVIIIII+IIIIIIIIIIII+IVIIIIII+IVIII+IVII+IIIII+IIIThree storey Shopping plaza休闲购物中心Sports Center运动休闲中心Food City 美食城Four-star Hote58、l四星级酒店 2.2.Development Recommendations for the Hotel 酒店开发建议酒店开发建议 Central location within Caohejing Hi-Tech Park,identified hotel demand and relatively good transportation facilities to the subject site are the basis of our hotel recommendation for the subject site.本案项目区域优越的区位条件和良好的发展潜力，以及项目周边相对良好的交59、通条件是支撑本项目发展优质酒店的基础。Future commercial atmosphere,enjoyable environment with large green land and important public area will make the hotel project attract potential customers from within the Caohejing Hi-Tech Park area.本项目周边的商务聚集氛围，并使本项目发展成为区域重要的公共活动空间，这将有利于本项目利用良好的绿化景观环境和酒店主题，从而有效吸引周边的客户需求。The hotel60、 project will be able to leverage off the development of the office developments as well as the existing demand for hotel rooms and services generated from within the existing business within the Caohejing Hi-Tech Park.Chapter 2 Recommendations 项目开发规划建议 11The middle-high end restaurants in the hotel61、s public area should satisfy the needs of the hotel customers as well as the middle/senior management working locally within the Hi-Tech park.本项目多种物业的协调发展有利于产生良好的协同效应，改善区域的商务环境，支持酒店的持续发展。另外，酒店与裙房中高档餐饮、休闲健身场馆的有机结合有助于充分满足宾馆住客的休闲餐饮及娱乐需求。In conclusion,we suggest a four star hotel to be built as a part o62、f the project due to the existing market demand generated within the Caohejing Hi-Tech Park.综合以上分析，考虑市场状况、项目特点和发展商的实力等因素，我们认为，本酒店具有发展四星级优质酒店的良好竞争力。We further recommend,that the subject hotel be operated by a professional Hotel Management Group.This will give the Hotel immediate market/branding recog63、nition and enhance the value and positioning of the subject site within the Hi-Tech Park 同时应该认识到，高档酒店的管理需要丰富的经验和行业资源，因此我们建议，本项目酒店项目应寻求与国际知名酒店管理集团的合作，将良好的硬件条件和专业管理水平相结合，在寻求酒店物业成功发展的同时，提升本案整体项目的档次及形象。2.2.1.Market positioning 市场定位市场定位 According to the result of our market analysis,the Hotel project sho64、uld be positioned as a four-star hotel to satisfy the business demand generated by mid and senior management woking within theCaohejing Park and the adjacent areas.根据市场分析结果，并综合考虑项目自身的条件及未来发展机会，建议本项目酒店定位为：满足漕河泾开发区内及区域周边商务需求，注重景观主题，品质优良，服务完善的四星级酒店。The Hotel is“aimed to satisfy the business needs in Ca65、ohejing Park and the adjacent areas”means that the hotel target market will be business people who generate hotel demand due to their business activities with companies within the Hi-Tech Park and nearby areas.“满足漕河泾开发区内及区域周边商务需求”表明本酒店定位于满足漕河泾开发区内商务客户和周边企业机构的商务需求，主要以短期居住高品质酒店需求为主。“to provide guests 66、with good quality service”means that the subject hotel will emphasis reasonable pricing for quality and professional service.“品质优良，服务完善”表明，项目酒店的产品定位注重性价比，服务的完善是其倾斜的重点，而酒Chapter 2 Recommendations 项目开发规划建议 12店的配套设施要根据需要选择性的建设，这一方面可以降低酒店的运营成本从而提供较具竞争力的市场价格，另一方面有利于发挥综合性项目的资源共享优势。“Four-Star”means that th67、e hotel will be targeted at the high end of market demand in the subject area.“四星级”表明项目对区域内具有较大市场空间和发展潜力的较高档细分市场的专注，同时也体现酒店物业与项目整体品质的协调。2.2.2.Target market 目标客户目标客户 As the conglomerate effect of hi-tech companies in Caohejing Park is growing and local business atmosphere is improved,there will be mo68、re demand for hotel from guests of business travel and conference whose price elasticity will be more favorable to the hotel.These potential customers will be the predominant target market of the subject hotel.随着漕河泾开发区的电子科技类、通讯类产业的聚集和发展，区域市场商务环境的改善和企业、机构的发展与壮大，商务住宿、会议类需求的频次及价格承受力将得到提升，此类客户将成为本酒店的目标客69、户。2.2.3.Development Scale and Facilities 规模及配套设施建议规模及配套设施建议 We recommend,that the subject hotel be approximately 41,600 square meters and about 520 rooms.This capacity should be sufficient to satisfy both the current market capacity and future market demand.对于本案酒店项目，酒店规模太小难以形成规模效应；规模过大则可能超过市场承受能力。基于70、对项目周边需求发展的预测，同时考虑一定的规模效应，并结合我们对酒店行业的深刻理解，我们建议本项目的酒店规模约为 41,600 平方米，客房为 520 左右，兼顾目前的市场需求状况及未来发展的需要。Recommended Hotel room types 客房配置建议客房配置建议 客房类型客房类型Room type 数量数量 Number比例比例 Ratio 房间面积房间面积(平方米平方米)Room area(m2)标准间 standard room 355 64%65-66 豪华间 luxurious room 90 20%70 套房 suite 55 12%80 豪华套房 luxurious71、 suite 15 3%100 行政套房 executive suite 5 1%120 合计 total 520 100%41,600 Chapter 2 Recommendations 项目开发规划建议 13Suggestions on Facilities and Services 配套设施及服务建议配套设施及服务建议 Classified 分类分类 Facilities and Services 配套内容配套内容 Room facilities 房间设施房间设施 Domestic appliance,telecom equipment:110-220voltage,IDD teleph72、one and voice mail,IDSN,free self-service coffee-tea pot,intellectual light,refrigerator,minibar,hairdryer 电器、电信设施：电器、电信设施：110-220 伏双电压，IDD 电话及留言信箱，高速宽带互联网接口，免费自助咖啡/茶设备，智能灯光，冰箱及迷你酒吧，吹风机 Air-conditioner and video system:independent central air-conditioner system,satellite TV channels,remote color TV 73、空调及视听：空调及视听：独立控制空调系统，卫星电视频道，遥控彩电 Other equipment:desk with lamp,electric safe-box,amended baby bed,amended bed,independent closet,bathroom/separate shower room 其它设施：其它设施：带台灯办公桌，电子保险箱，可配婴儿床，加床，闹钟，独立衣橱，浴室/独立淋浴间 Conference facilities 会议设施会议设施 Large conference room:separable into 3 smaller rooms or banq74、ueting hall with a total area of 1000 1,500 square meters 大会议室：大会议室：可分割为 3 间的大会议室或宴会厅，面积 1000-1500平方米 The divisible conference rooms:3 middle size conference rooms with area of approximately 300 500 square meters each 可分割的会议室：可分割的会议室：3 间，面积 300-500 平方米 Break-out rooms:8 10 rooms with area of approxi75、mately 30 square meters each 休息室：休息室：8-10 间，每间面积 30 平方米左右 F&B facilities 餐饮设施餐饮设施 Casual dining:coffee bar,lobby bar,lobby caf 休闲餐饮：休闲餐饮：咖啡厅、大堂酒廊、大堂酒吧 Chinese/western dinning:Italian/French cuisine;Cantonese,Hunan,Sichuan or Huaiyang cuisine 中中/西正餐：西正餐：意大利或法国风味；粤、湘、淮扬、川风味；Special restaurant:Japanese76、 or Korean restaurant or BBQ 特色餐饮：特色餐饮：日、韩氛围的餐厅或烧烤吧 Sports/Leisure Facilities 休闲休闲/运动设施运动设施 Sports and exercises:Well equipped and managed gymnasium 运动健身：设备和经营高档的运动健身：设备和经营高档的健身中心 Beauty parlor:beauty salon,hair dresser,sauna,kumachi,SPA 美容洗浴：美容洗浴：美容美发厅，桑拿浴室，按摩池，SPA Entertainment:Karaoke,club,Mahjon77、g/caRoads/chess,electonic games room 休闲娱乐：休闲娱乐：卡拉 OK，俱乐部，电子游戏机室，麻将棋牌室 Others:BBQ area,childrens entertainment area 其它娱乐：其它娱乐：烧烤区，儿童娱乐场 Other Services 其它设施其它设施 Floor and room:executive floor,executive bar,barrier-free room,nonsmoking floor 楼层及房间：楼层及房间：行政楼层，行政酒廊，无障碍房间，无烟楼层 Shops:gift shop,business cen78、ter,concierge,flower shop 店铺配套：店铺配套：精品礼品店，商务中心，礼宾处，鲜花店 Chapter 2 Recommendations 项目开发规划建议 14 Others:clinic,laundry,parking lot 其它：其它：医务室，洗衣房，停车场 Services 服务配套服务配套 Ordinary service:laundry,shoe-shining,wake-up call,newspaper delivery,24 hours meal delivery,airport pickup,electronic doorlock,baby sitt79、er service,currency exchange,locker at check-in counter,car park,credit caRoad 普通服务：普通服务：干洗/洗衣，擦鞋，叫醒，送报，24 小时送餐，机场接送及出租，电子门锁，托婴服务，外币兑换，前台保险箱，泊车，信用卡 Business service:conference and banquet service,conference video,tourist guide,computer&internet,Xerox,express delivery,fax and printing,translation ser80、vice 商务服务：商务服务：会议及宴会服务，会议视听、传译设备出租，订/售票服务，24 小时秘书，礼宾服务，旅游顾问，电脑及互联网服务，复印、快递、传真打印服务，翻译服务 Special regulations:pet forbidden,fast check in&out,free gym,free swimming pool,service for disables 特殊规定：特殊规定：严禁带宠物，快速登记及退房，免费健身、泳池，残疾人服务 Since the maintenance of facilities is very expensive and the subject hote81、l will target business travelers,we recommend,that certain facilities could be outsourced Outsourced facilities would include the renting of certain facilities such as the small retail units as well as restaurants and the entertainment center.考虑到维护配套设施的昂贵费用和本项目酒店以商务旅客为主的定位，转移配套设施的经营及所有方式将有利于酒店降低经营成本82、，并提供富有竞争力的客房价格；将部分酒店的配套设施对外开放经营，一方面能够降低成本，另一方面可以形成与商业物业的互补及协调。我们建议，酒店可将独立经营的配套设施包括多种风味的餐饮、康乐中心的各类设施和会议设施等。基于不干扰酒店正常经营及服务的原则，我们建议，在独立经营的程度安排上，应遵守酒店管理集团的建议。2.3.Recommendations for the Office Development 办公楼开发建议办公楼开发建议 Caohejing Hi-Tech Park is developing R&D office buildings in the park and we have re83、asons to expect that low density R&D office building and pure office building will be developed with the further development of Caohejing Park.And pure office building will be the focus of office development owing to the scarcity of land in the urban area.漕河泾开发区正在大力着手发展科技类专业写字楼的举措，我们有理由认为随着漕河泾开发区的进一84、步发展，势必促进低密度厂房办公楼和纯办公楼的发展，考虑到外环线内土地的稀缺性，纯写字楼将是开发的重点趋势。Chapter 2 Recommendations 项目开发规划建议 15 Total supply of pure office buildings in the area is 328,291 square meters.The clients in the existing office buildings in Caohejing Park are mostly companies in such industries as electronic technology,teleco85、mmunication and trading.区域内现有纯写字楼 328,291 平方米，其中漕河泾开发区内的现存的写字楼客户主要为开发区内的电子科技类、通讯类、贸易类。Compared with Zhangjiang Hi-tech Park in Pudong,the subject project has an obvious advantage of land cost and therefore it is reasonable to expect,that for specialized office building focused on the growth industri86、es of electronics and telecommunications.As office space demand grows interest will be aligned to Caohejing Hi-Tech Park.随着漕河泾产业聚集优势的进一步凸现，客户的潜在需求还在不断增长。同时相对浦东张江等高科技园，项目有着明显的土地成本优势，因而适合电子科技类，通讯类等产业的专业纯写字楼前景看好。The pure office building to be completed in the regional market is estimated at 396,000 squ87、are meters with R&D office buildings totalling around 1,047,600 square meters.No more land is available for the development of large scale pure office building around the subject site.So we expect the subject office building to attract medium to strong demand over the medium term.However overdevelop88、ment of office space should be avoided.未来区域市场 2009 年以前完工的纯写字楼累计潜在供应量预计在 39.59 万左右，研发类厂房办公楼预计在 104.76 万左右。除此之外，项目周围没有其余的土地供应可以做纯写字楼的大批开发，因而项目建议的纯写字楼开发有长远发展的优势，但要注意避开供应高峰，以防引起区域市场的过度竞争。The highest rent in Caohejing Park for office space is$0.34 per sq.m./per day and the average occupancy is 93%.Theref89、ore we recommend,that the subject office space be rented.由于漕河泾开发区内部的写字楼目前最高租金报价为 0.34 美金/天,平方米，平均入住率达到 93%，故建议采用纯出租方式运作。We recommend,that the office space be developed as pure office space with quality facilities in Caohejing Park and to guarantee the overall quality of the building by pure renting 90、operation in order to achieve long term profit.因此，我们建议在本案项目中建设漕河泾开发区内具最好设施的标志性纯办公楼，并采取纯出租方式以保证标志性办公楼的综合品质并获得长期收益。According to the result of our market survey,we have identified the potential clients for the subject office building as predominately the growth industries Chapter 2 Recommendations 项目开发91、规划建议 16within Caohejing Park such as electronic technology,telecommunications,trading and the upstream and down stream supply chain of these industries.根据市场研究结果，我们认为本案办公楼的潜在客户群将主要为：漕河泾开发区内的优势产业，包括电子科技类，通讯类、贸易类及为这些产业服务的上下游企业。According to our forecast,the demand for pure office space will be 38,800 sq92、uare meters per year by 2008 and this demand will increase with the on-going development of the general economy and the growth of companies in the Caohejing Hi-Tech Park.经过对市场后期的预测分析，自 2008 年起本案可创造的纯办公楼年需求空缺约为 38,800 平方米左右，且随着经济的发展及企业的成长，此需求空缺尚有增长空间。We recommend the development of twin office buildi93、ngs,totaling 110,000 square meters.We further recommend,that the first office tower be opened in 2009 and the second office tower be opened in 2010,each with a GFA of 55,000 square meters.我们建议本案2座标志型纯写字楼分别于2009年和2010年开业，每年开业一幢，每幢含纯办公面积约 55,000 平方米。We recommend,that the subject twin office buildings 94、be positioned as a high quality office development most suitably at a minus A grade level.We expect the subject office buildings to maintain a competitive advantage by highlighting the the office floorplate suitability for companies in the electronic and telecommunication industries coupled with com95、petitive price/utility ratio provided,instead of luxurious decoration and facilities.我们在此建议本项目为准甲级写字楼，主要考虑到漕河泾开发区整体区域市场的整体水平、项目自身条件及潜在客户的承受能力等因素，希望项目注重的并非是豪华的装修和设备、昂贵的价格，而是适合电子科技、通讯类专业特色，以良好的性价比取胜。We suggest the subjected office building to adopt professional property management company to improve s96、ervice quality and provide the clients with value added service.建议本案项目办公楼聘请专业物业管理公司进行管理，以充分利用专业管理公司的经验，提升本案办公楼的物业管理品质，为用户提供增值的管理服务，使得本案在写字楼市场竞争中形成独特优势。2.3.1.Office Demand Segment Profile 客户特征客户特征 Potential office users will be:Familiar with Caohejing Hi-Tech Park and expecting promising future for t97、he development of the area 对漕河泾开发区区域相对熟悉和认可，并看好区域Chapter 2 Recommendations 项目开发规划建议 17的发展前景；Generated by companies on the verge of expanding and company image is becoming more important.公司处于业务扩张阶段，经济实力逐步增强，日益注重公司形象；Preferably located in an office building,that has a good image and reputation 偏好入住标志型98、写字楼；2.3.2.Recommendation for Office Building Design 产品建议产品建议 As a Icon in the subject market area,the office building must be more advanced from the perspective of design.The building will attract clients by creating a modern and comfortable office environment and gain a good reputation by providing99、 value-added service.本项目作为区域的标志型纯办公楼，其产品设计方面应具备一定的前瞻性。通过整个项目所营造的氛围及现代、舒适的办公环境吸引目标客户，通过办公楼项目内提供的增值服务提升办公楼物业的品质与客户口碑。The total construction area is about 110,000 square meters.Construction area of each building is 55,000 square meters and the area of a standard floor is approxiamtely1,800 square meter100、s,which can be separated into smaller units suitable for middle to small sized companies.总建筑面积约 110,000 万平方米。建议每单体建筑面积为 55,000 万平方米，标准层建筑面积为 1,800 平方米左右，可以灵活分割成小单元，主要面向于中小企业客户。We recommend,that the building be designed as a regular shape,such as a square to ensure en efficient floorplate layout.We r101、ecommend,that the design be pillarless construction.Height between the floors is above 3.5 meters(net height).建议采用框架结构布局，应保证平面布局比较灵活，办公区无柱。楼层高度应保证在 3.2 米以上(净高)。Make full use of natural light and good natural scene to improve the quality of the property.充分利用自然采光条件以及良好的自然景观，提升物业品质。The faade of the off102、ice building should be harmonious with the environment and the style should be modern,fashionable and simplistic.楼宇外观造型应与周边环境相协调，并体现现代、时尚和简洁的风格，突出楼Chapter 2 Recommendations 项目开发规划建议 18宇品质。We recommend,that the faade of the building should be brick or porcelain brick;the lobby floor should be decorat103、ed with tiles and the lobby wall should be decorated with tiles and high quality oil paint.The floor in public area should be tiles or middle qulaity carpet.Washing facilities in bathrooms should be mid to high quality products made in China or by a joint-venture company.装饰标准为外立面采用面砖或瓷砖；有大堂，大堂地面为地砖，104、墙面为瓷砖或高级漆，有吊顶；公共部分的地面为地砖或铺中档地毯，墙面刷白；卫生间采用合资或国产中高档洁具等。Office building fit-out should include:air conditioning,security alarm system,fire alarm system,preset lines system.办公楼设备包括：空调系统、安全报警、消防系统、预留布线系统。The air conditioner system should abide by the rules of health and environment-friendly,flexible for 105、adjustment by clients of room temperature and fresh air supply in 24 hours.More windows are designed to open considering the need for natural ventilation.空调系统应体现健康环保要求，便于客户自由调节房间温度和充足的新风量，满足客户 24 小时办公的需要。另外，设计时可增加可开启的窗户数量，考虑绿色办公楼自然通风的因素。Other facilities include underground and above ground parking l106、ot.其他配套设施包括有专用地上、地下停车场等。2.4 Recommendation for the Serviced Apartment 酒店式公寓开发建议酒店式公寓开发建议 The development suggestions here include the suggestions to both service apartment and strata-titled service apartment.这里的酒店公寓建议包括产权式酒店公寓和服务式酒店公寓。Because the subjected site is approved for commercial use and the107、 valid term is 50 years,pure residential project is nor suitable for the subject project.We only consider the development of residential space for renting or sale.由于地块本身是商业用地，使用年限为 50 年，因此本地块不做纯住宅产品，而作为纯出租产品和投资产品考虑。Given the good environment of large area green land,we recommend the development of t108、he strata-titled service apartment buildings,which would each cover a land area of 10,667 square meters.Total construction area will be 96,000 Chapter 2 Recommendations 项目开发规划建议 19square meters.We also recommend,the development of traditional service apartment.Based on our demand analysis we recomme109、nd 40,000 square meters.由于有大面积的公共绿地可以做景观优势，建议产权式酒店公寓的容积率为 3，按照每幢产权式酒店公寓占地 10667 平方米计算，共建议建造 3 幢，项目的总建面积应该在 9.6 万平方米。建议服务式酒店公寓的容积率为 2.5，项目总建筑面积为 4 万平方米。There are still some houses remaining on the subject site,which need to be taken into consideration when working on the construction schedule of the 110、subject project.目前地面上尚有待拆迁的平房，要动工要先考虑到拆迁的大体进程安排。According to out recommended development plan,the facilities around the subject service apartment will be office buildings,a restaurant area,a sport and entertainment center and the hotel.Office buildings and the hotel will block traffic and guarantee 111、a favorable environment for the service apartments.There will be a large green area nearby.All these factors will enhance the middle to high end positioning of the service apartment by creating a pleasant and well facilitated immediate environment for the service apartment development.根据我们的方案，未来周边会有112、的设施主要为办公区域和餐饮、运动休闲商业及酒店区域。办公、酒店区可以将中环线车流量较大的不利影响阻隔掉，为住宅项目带来较为良好的环境，保证周边人流不会太过混乱；商业区建设将为住宅项目提供有力的支持，满足住宅项目的生活需要；另外这些酒店式公寓的周边均有大面积的公共绿地做为独特的景观优势。以上的几点将支持本项目的中高档定位。Strata-titled service apartment are properties for investment or self-use.Convenient location and mature commercial atmosphere will make th113、e project more attractive to potential customers.There is high potential for price increase in the future to guarantee high rent.其中的产权式酒店公寓作为投资或自住产品，所处的地理位置交通便利，未来商业配套齐全，这样的项目对于买家有很大的吸引力，未来的升值潜力巨大，而且目前和未来的租金都会较高，对于回收投资十分有利。2.4.1.Market positioning 市场定位市场定位 Based on the above analysis and positioning114、 of the whole project,we recommend,that the subject service apartment s target market is:根据以上对项目的分析，以及结合整体的规划定位，我们对公寓部分做出如下的建议：Chapter 2 Recommendations 项目开发规划建议 20Mid to high quality landscaped service apartments rented to senior business people生态精品服务式酒店公寓，高级商务人士长租首选；Mid to high quality landscaped 115、strata-titled service apartments sold to the contemporary“white-collar”community 生态景观产权式酒店公寓，现代的知识型白领社区 Strata-titled service apartment 产权式酒店公寓：产权式酒店公寓：We recommend selling this kind of service apartment.Convenient location and transportation facilities,large demand and support from the whole projec116、t will guarantee good potential for the strata-titled service apartment.我们建议这部分酒店公寓以出售为主，自住或投资均可，由于项目的地理位置属于徐汇区，附近交通特别便利，居住需求良好，以及整体项目规划的支持，未来本产品颇具出售潜力。Landscaping 生态景观：生态景观：Large green area ofland is highlighted around the building,which is rare in urban areas.We recommend taking advantage of such 117、an environment as an advantage to improve the quality of the whole project.主要体现周围的绿地景观的优势，在靠近中环线区域中，这 样大面积的景观绿地并不多见，我们建议充分利用这样的生态环境，可以提升整 体的档次。Service apartment 服务式酒店公寓：服务式酒店公寓：Mainly refer to the property management and community facilities.The subject service apartment project will be strictly abi118、ding by the standards of service apartment because of the existing competition from the adjacent hotel project to live up to the demand of short,medium asnd long term tenants.主要指社区的配套以及物业管理。由于东侧酒店竞争关系，本项目完全按照酒店式公寓的标准，在物业管理以及配套上尽量的周到，以满足长租住户的需求。Modern 现代：现代：Refer to the architecture style.Glass and m119、etal material are suggested to embody the modern style to be harmonious with the whole planning.主要指建筑风格，多利用玻璃及金属等有质感的材质以体现现代感，还要和整体规划相配合，和周边的酒店以及办公楼形成统一的风格，以利于整体形象的包装。Knowledge white collar community 知识型白领社区：知识型白领社区：Since the subject site is located in Caohejing Park,where knowledgable people Chapte120、r 2 Recommendations 项目开发规划建议 21gather together and also there are five famous universities nearby,the strata-titled service apartment will be popular among highly educated people.由于项目所处的漕河泾开发区属于知识型人才的汇集地，也属于上海居住层次和品位相对较高的一个区域，周围有 5 所上海市著名大学，因而这里的产权式酒店公寓将是未来很受知识型人才欢迎的白领社区。2.4.2.Price/rent 售价售价/租金租金 O121、rdinary residential apartments near the subject project have sold for 10,700 RMB/square meters in the current market.From experience,the price of a small unit is higher than ordinary apartments usually.Therefore,we give a conservative estimation of the price at 11,000RMB/square meters for the strata122、-titled service apartment plus 1,000 RMB/square meters for decoration.在目前区域市场的住宅售价上，因此靠近本项目的普通住宅的平均售价可以达到 10700 元/平方米以上。从市场上来讲，小户型产品要比正常户型的单价略高，但考虑到区域内位于虹桥古北区域的住宅售价较高，因而拉升了区域整体的均价水平。因此我们保守的估计，本项目的产权式酒店公寓单价可以达到 10000元/平方米，在加上 1000 元/平方米的装修，项目的单价应该在 11000 元/平米。The average rent for service apartment in123、 the regional market area is$19.4 per sq.m./month,.The subjected service apartment project has larger scale of 40,000 square meters and so the rent shouldnt be too high.Considering the time and better facilities,we suggest the rent for the service apartment is$20 dollars/per month,.目前区域市场内，服务式酒店公寓的平124、均租金为 19.4 美金/月，平方米，项目的规模 4 万平方米属于较大型的服务式酒店公寓，租金不易过高，但考虑到项目推出的时间和拥有更好的硬件品质，因而出租型的服务式酒店公寓来说，租金定位在 20 美金/月，平方米。According to our market survey and estimation for future development,we recommend,that the price for the subject strata-titled service apartment project is 11,000 RMB/square meter(decoration c125、ost:1,000 RMB/square meter).因此根据对现有市场的调查以及对未来发展的预测，我们建议本案的均价定位在 11000 元/平方米（装修 1000 元/平方米）Therefore,the total sale value for the strata-titled service apartment will be 1.056 billion RMB.这样，就产权式酒店公寓项目的总销售金额可以达到 10.56 亿元 2.4.3.Suggested area 面积设定面积设定 Chapter 2 Recommendations 项目开发规划建议 22The subject s126、trata-titled service apartments are mostly small units.So we recommend,that most units are a one room package plus a few two room packages and duplex units so as to cap the total sales price and guarantee investment return.本项目的产权式酒店公寓侧重于小户型的产品，因此我们建议将面积尽量的做小，主要以小面积的一房为主，并有二房和复式的设计。这样可以使总价降低，以确保投资回报。127、Chapter 2 Recommendations 项目开发规划建议 23 房型房型Type 面积（平方米）面积（平方米）Area(m2)占总面积比例占总面积比例 Ratio to total area 总面积（万平方米）总面积（万平方米）Total area(thousand m2)总户数总户数（户）（户）total tenants(unit)占总户数比占总户数比例例 Ratio to total units 一房single room 45-60 50.0%4.8 900 60%二房double rooms 65-80 35.7%3.4 470 31.3%复式 duplex(double 128、floors)100-120 14.3%1.4 130 8.7%合计total 100%9.6 1500 100%Three 18 floor buildings are recommended,1-16 floor are standard floors,17-18 floor are duplexes.60%are single room units and 40%are double rooms units.产品为 3 幢 18 层的小高层，116 层为标准层，17-18 层为复式。一房户数比例占 60%，二房比例占 40%左右。Service apartment are mainly 129、single-bedroom，and plus a few double-bedrooms units.服务式酒店公寓侧重配套齐全的一房，并辅以一定数量的二房。房型房型 Type 面积（平方面积（平方米）米）Area(m2)占总面积比例占总面积比例Ratio to total area 总面积（万平方米）总面积（万平方米）Total area(thousand m2)总户数总户数（户）（户）total tenants(unit)占总户数比占总户数比例例 Ratio to total units 一房 single room 80 60%2.4 300 69.2%二房double rooms 1130、20 40%1.6 133 30.7%总计 total 100%4 433 100%Chapter 2 Recommendations 项目开发规划建议 242.4.5.总价设定总价设定 我们建议产权式酒店公寓一房的总价不要超过 70 万，二房的总价不要超过 95万，而复式产品总价在 135 万左右。房型房型 Type 面积（平方米）面积（平方米）Area(m2)均价（元均价（元/平方米）平方米）Average price(RMB/m2)总价（万元总价（万元/户）户）Total price(10 thousand RMB/unit)一房 single room 45-60 54-72 二房 d131、ouble rooms 65-80 78-96 复式 duplexes(double floors)100-120 10000（带装修11000）10000(plus decoration,11000)120-144 2.4.6.Investment return analysis 投资回报分析投资回报分析 Average occupancy of service apartments in the regional market area is 87.5%,which means relatively strong demand in the market.Average rent is$1132、9.4/month,/square meter.Sales rate and speed of representative residential projects highlight,that demand exceeds supply in the market.The subject project will be supportable by three major factors:目前区域内服务式酒店公寓的平均入住率为 87.5%，说明区域市场服务式酒店公寓租房市场十分旺盛，整体呈现供不应求。平均租赁价格为 19.4 美金/月，平方米；区域市场内的代表性楼盘销售率和去化速度也显示该133、区域住宅出售需求旺盛，在本项目推出后，将有以下三点对本项目形成支持：Medium to Strong Demand 充足的客源充足的客源 The subject project has outstanding advantages of environment,facilities and service in Caohejing Park.Large numbesr of potential customers will be attracted by the project.Moreover,demand exceeds supply in the whole renting market134、.Therefore,large capacity of potential market will guarantee the high occupancy of the subject project.无论从景观、配套以及服务上，本项目在漕河泾开发区内都将是首屈一指的，大量的客源将被本项目吸引。而且目前租赁市场处于供不应求的状态，因此，将有足够的客源保持本项目未来的入住率。Non expensive rent 并不高昂的租金并不高昂的租金 Given the brand new decorated rooms,landscaping,facilities and service advan135、tages,the subject service apartments will have promising market at the Chapter 2 Recommendations 项目开发规划建议 25reasonable rent of$20 dollars/month/square meter.There should be rental growth with the commercial development and the opening of the retail project.以本案的全新装修房，以及景观、配套、服务等目前周边不可比拟的优势，本案服务式酒店公寓未136、来二房的租金达到 20 美金/月，平方米是十分有市场的。如果等本案周边的商业设施完毕后，租金还有望进一步提升。Owner-occupier Demand 主力自住客源主力自住客源 Because of the relatively low total price,the subject strata-titled service apartments will be very attractive to owner-occupiers.Convenient transportation and location will make the subject strata-titled servi137、ce apartment more attractive to single while collar employees who prefer convenient transportation to large living area.对于不高的总价，本案对于自住客源是十分有吸引力的。交通便利、地段较距离徐汇中心城区、虹桥古北高尚住宅区都在 10 分钟车程内、周边的配套还十分齐全，对于单身的白领和对面积要求不是很高，而对交通要求较高的客源来讲，本案无疑是较好的选择。2.4.7.Description of potential market 客源描述客源描述 We estimate,that138、 most customers of the subject strata-titled service apartments will be owner-occupiers and a few investors.The customers of service apartment will mainly come from companies and office buildings in and around the Caohejing Hi-Tech park.对未来购买本案的客源，我们预测将产权式酒店公寓以大部分的自住客源及少量的投资客源为主。对于服务式酒店公寓以周边开发区内电子科技139、类、通讯类企业住户、周边写字楼租户的商务长住客源为主。Most potential customers will come from Caohejing Hi-Tech Park and a few come from other areas.Of course,the resources of potential customers will be highly related to the target area of advertisement.所有的客源都将以漕河泾开发区为主，少部分来自与市区其他区的自住客，当然，客源的区域性质还将和广告投放的区域相互影响。2.5.Recommenda140、tions for Retail Development 商业开发建议商业开发建议 2.5.1.Definition of the Retail precinct 商圈界定商圈界定 Many factors need be taken into consideration to decide the area of the precinct,such as location,scale,ratio of functions,local competition,and transportation.零售业商圈的划定需要综合考虑到地理位置、项目规模、物业类型配比、区域Chapter 2 Recom141、mendations 项目开发规划建议 26竞争环境、项目交通情况、消费者可接受交通成本等因素。The area of the subject retail precinct is defined as the following:本物业的零售商圈界定如下：Core catchment area:residents in and near Caohejing Hi-Tech Park Western area.核心商圈：漕河泾开发区西区及临近居民区；Radius of core catchment area:north to Yanan(W)elevated road,south to Hum142、in Road,west to Huanxi Road,east to Zhongshan(W)Road and Humin elevated road.辐射商圈：北至延安西路高架，南至沪闵路，西至环西大道，东至中山西路高架及沪闵路高架。We need to refer that in the above catchment area,there are several competitive retail precincts,which will confine the effective catchment area of the subject retail development.Gu143、bei precinct,Hongmei Xiuxian Street,Guilin kangjian precinct and Tianlin(E)precinct around the area will capture part of the retail demand of the subject catchment area.Differentiation positioning will help the subject retail project to avoid direct competition.有必要指出的是，在上述辐射商圈范围内，竞争项目的存在将大大限制本开发项目的实144、际商圈辐射范围，目前在本项目周边，古北商圈、虹梅休闲街、桂林康健和田林东路商圈等的存在可能在一定程度上与本项目商业开发造成一定的替代作用，限制本项目的辐射范围，对此可以通过合理的差异化的定位弥补上述不确定性竞争因素。2.5.2.Target consumers 目标消费群：目标消费群：The target market is classified into two categories for retail supply:retail tenants and end consumers.End consumers have decisive influence on property tena145、nts in the current market.商业物业的客户定位分为两个主要的层次：物业客户和目标消费者，由于目前的商业零售市场是典型的买方市场，因此后者对于前者具有决定性的影响力。Most potential end cusumers will come from the core catchment area,which means the residents and employees in the Caohejing Hi-Tech park will be the main customers.We outline the following characterirstics 146、of the identified target market:本项目商圈的划定后，本项目的潜在主要客户及购买力支撑将绝大部分来自于项目的核心商圈，该区域内的居民，尤其是漕河泾开发区的大量员工将是本项目主要的潜在客户来源。我们认为该区域的消费者将呈现以下特点：low price sensitivity 价格敏感度较低 consumption emphasis moved from daily needs to selective commodity 商品消Chapter 2 Recommendations 项目开发规划建议 27费重点从日用品向价格弹性更高的选择性商品转移 more deman147、d for dining out,entertainment and leisure consumption 餐饮、休闲、娱乐方面的消费趋于增加 higher demand for shopping environment and service 对购物环境和服务水平具有较高要求 significant amount of demand generated from business activities within the Hi-Tech park 存在相当数量的需求产生自开发区内企业的商务活动 more people own private automobiles 私人驾车购物比例上升 148、The above features comprise the basic assumption of the targeted consumers.以上构成了我们对目标消费者消费习惯基本特征的预测。Meanwhile,the proposed development of service apartments,hotel and office buildings at the subject project will help improve consumption level and structure of consumers in the area.同时，未来本案项目内新增的服务式公寓149、，酒店和办公项目具有提升本案所在区域内消费人口层次及消费能力的作用。As the result of research,target consumers for the subject retail project are identified as the following:经过研究，本项目的目标消费者包括以下人群：residents in the core catchment area 核心商圈的居民，company consumption from the nearby companies and institutions 周边企业、机构的集团消费 employees in the s150、ubject office building and other companies in the area 本项目写字楼及周边企业的办公人群 theming consumers(sport,entertainment)主题消费人群（运动、娱乐）hotel guests and tenants of the service apartment 酒店的客人和酒店式公寓的租户 2.5.3.Retail Market positioning and development recommendations 市场定位及开发建议市场定位及开发建议 Based on our analysis and the151、 market,we recommend,that the subject retail development be positioned as:an integrated restaurant strip,retail,sport center and Chapter 2 Recommendations 项目开发规划建议 28entertainment facilities to serve as the middle-high end business,residential,shopping and entertainment functions for the area of the152、 Caohejing Hi-Tech Park.根据以上的分析结论，并初步考虑项目自身的区位条件，本报告初步确定项目商业定位如下：集餐饮、零售、健身、休闲为一体，服务于该地区的中高档商务、居住、购物、休闲娱乐消费中心。We recommend a theme of business leisure consumption for the subject retail.The development should be carried on by several phases in order to control risk and returns.我们建议本案项目商业部分整体定位以商务休闲消费153、为主题，分期开发以控制风险及获得投资回报。We recommend,that a large supermarket,department store and specialized market are not suitable for the subject project development because of their low rent and special request for transportation,required land area and existing local competition.Developers financial returns can 154、not be guaranteed by these competition.有必要指出的是，单一的大型超市、百货店及专业市场物业将压低商业物业的单位租金水平，从而影响到发展商的经济收益；同时，大型专业市场对交通、建筑结构、有效辐射范围内竞争情况等具有特殊的要求，且不利于同中高档综合性物业的协调，不适合本项目的发展。We recommend a Retail Shopping plaza concept with a total GFA of 9,000 square meters in which there is a high-end supermarket like Watsons,se155、veral specialised shops,and other general merchandise like hairdressing,bookstores,and service oriented facilities such as banks,post office,dental and medical clinics and a cinema.休闲购物广场，包括特色超市，如 Watson 等，专卖店、零售、美容美发、电影院等。在环绕的中心，建造休闲市民广场。总建筑面积为 9000 平方米，单层面积为 1500 平方米。Food City(food court):There ar156、e various countries and regional flavor foods,as well as several featured restaurants.The food court is aimed to satisfied the persons working in Caohejing Hi-Tech Park.中档美食城，汇集各国各地风味，以快餐为主，辅以若干特色餐厅。以满足周边厂房办公楼职工就餐需求为主。Food and Bev.Streetscape:in which people can enjoy cafes,bistros and other fashion157、 snacks as well as for business or friends get-togethers.2,500 GFA.The Caohejing leisure street is different from the general F&B streetscape by the excellent surrounding green view as well as the garden environment with large Chapter 2 Recommendations 项目开发规划建议 29landscaped spaces.漕河泾休闲街，以休闲茶吧、咖啡吧、时158、尚小吃为主，档次中高档，以满足商务、朋友聚会需求为主。面积共计 2,500 平方米，拥有与众不同的开放式花园的开放式用餐环境 Food and Bev.Streetscape including entertainment.The projected entertainment outlets should include themed restaurants,e.g.Paulauner,etc.KTV,6-7 bars etc.These entertainment facilities should be dispersed within the F&B streetscape preci159、nct.The target clients of this entertainment specialty would be foreigners working in the Caohejing Hi Tech Park from all parts of the world,such as America and Europe,Japan and Korea,Hong Kong and Taiwan.This target market is predominantly mid to senior management as well as the wealthy residents i160、n the nearby service apartments or the guests in the nearby hotel.娱乐，考虑建造主题餐厅，如宝莱纳等，KTV 娱乐城，6-7 个酒吧，休闲吧等等。布置的位置考虑沿街分布，和餐饮交错分布。这部分商业以吸引漕河泾高科技开发园区中欧美、日韩、港台等外籍人士及中高层管理人员、附近高级酒店、公寓中住客工作之余的休闲娱乐生活为主。Recommended Sports Center,a total GFA of 8,000 square meters.The Sports centre is targeted at the medium-to161、-high market and will comprise of a specialised”Racquet Club”including indoor tennis,squash and badminton courts.The gymnasium will include a fitness center,swimming pool,spa/sauna and an aromatheraphy centre.There will be a Health bar and sports shop.The sports center is projected to attract 1-2 an162、chor clients,such as Megfit fitness group,Physical fitness group,etc.which are already quite a popular fitness center in Shanghai.The demand for this recommended center is projected to emanate from the mid to senior staff working in the Caohejing Hi-Tech park and wealthy nearby residents.大规模的运动休闲中心：163、消费档次中高档，8000 平方米，分 2 期推出。可容纳室外网球场，室内游泳池、篮球场、壁球馆、羽毛球场，健身中心，美容设施，配套餐饮等。布置的位置考虑放在虹梅路附近的地块。运动休闲中心以吸引 1-2 家关键住商为关键，例如 Megfit,Physical 等已经在上海较有知名度的连锁健身中心，满足开发区内员工及周边高档住宅人群运动休闲健身的需求。10.5.4.Tenant mix 客户组合建议客户组合建议 According to the different retail types suggestions as well as the positioning constrains,we s164、uggest the various tenants mix as follows:针对商业业态及定Chapter 2 Recommendations 项目开发规划建议 30位的不同，我们建议各种客户组合如下所示：Retail Shopping Plaza Tenant Suggestion Type of Tenant 可选择客户种类可选择客户种类 Brand/Commodity Examples 品牌品牌/商品举例商品举例 Ladys Clothes 女士服装 Prada（普拉达）,Ports（宝姿）,Burbery（百宝丽）,Versas（范思哲）,Jessica（洁西卡）,Aquasc165、utum（雅格师丹）,Kenzo,Givenchy（纪凡希）,Bally（百丽）,Mango,New Yorker（纽约客）,Gap（盖普）,United Colors of Benneton（班尼顿）,Sisley,Amarni Exchange,Escape,Guy Laroche,Rex&Co,Bianco（范怡文）,Miamia（美亚美亚）,Yes or No,LouisaM（路易萨 M）,Layefe（逸飞）,Moissele,Pelletteria（帕拉西亚）,Betty Cooper,Franck Muller,Max&Co,Betu（百图）,Etam（艾格）,Michiel,R166、ebecca（丽贝卡）,ladyscottage（淑女屋）,JNBY（江南布衣）,Audry（奥黛莉）Mens Clothes 男士服装 Boss,Ports（宝姿）,Polo,Burbery（百宝丽）,Salvordore Ferregamore,Cerruti,Cabbeen,Pierre Cardin（皮尔卡丹），Gutte,MGB,Golden Fox（金狐）,Lanbao（蓝豹）,Golden lion（金利来）,Montagut（梦特娇）,Balenciaga,Romaster（罗马世家）,Tony wear（汤尼威尔）Leisure Clothes 休闲服饰 Levis（李维斯）167、,Apple（苹果）,U2,Replay,Guess（盖斯）,Gas,G2000,Miss Sixty,Killah,Only,Vero mode,Fashion Factory,Giordano（佐丹奴）,Baxton（霸狮腾）,Esprit（埃斯普利特）,Jack&Jones,Bossini（堡狮龙）,the 5th street（第五大道），B-line,Heib,Lee（李）,G star,Nike 360（耐克 360）,Addidas（阿迪达斯）Leather Product皮具 Elcanto（阿尔看特）,Belly（百丽）,Nine West,Geox,Skap,Teenix,168、Hush puper,Joy&Peace（真美诗）,Le Saunda（莱尔斯丹）,Senda（森达）,Cele（策乐）,Aukaso（奥卡索）Jewelry 饰品 Tiffanys Co（蒂凡尼）.Italina（伊泰莲娜）,Sichuibiyin（思彼垂银）,Pirates boat（海盗船）Cosmetics 化妆品 Cristine Dior,Helena Rubinstein（赫莲娜）,Guerlain（娇兰）,Clarins（娇润诗）,Lancome（兰蔻）,Chanel（夏奈尔）,Clinique（倩碧）,Loreal（欧莱亚）,Shiseido（资生堂）,Aupres（欧珀莱）169、,Za,UP2U Mobile Phone 手机 Motorola（摩托罗拉）,Nokia（诺基亚）,Sumsung（三星）,Alcatel（阿尔卡特）,TCL,Haier（海尔）,Sony Ericsson（索爱）Book Store 书籍 Xinhua book store（新华书店）,Sanlian bookstore（三联书店）,Scholar book store（思考乐书店）Small Convenience Store 小型便利店 Lianhua（联华）,Hualian（华联）,Watsons（屈臣仕）,Haode（好德）,Kedi（可的）Pharmacy 药店 Kaixinre170、n drug store（开心人药店）,Jianmin drug store（健民药店）Bank 银行 Standard Chartered（渣打银行）,Citigroup（花旗银行）,China Industry Chapter 2 Recommendations 项目开发规划建议 31and Commerce Bank（工商银行）,China Merchants Bank（招商银行）,Bank of China（中国银行）others 其它服务 beauty parlor（美容院）,hair dresser（理发店）,massage（按摩保健）,cinema（电影院）Streetscape171、 Retail Tenant Suggestion Type 可选择客可选择客户种类户种类 Example 品牌品牌/产品举例产品举例 Restaurant 餐饮 Chinese Restaurant 中餐饭店 Shanghai restaurant,Cantonese restaurant,Sichuan restaurant,seafood restaurant 本邦菜、广邦菜、川菜、海鲜等 Foreign Flavor Restaurant 海外风味餐厅 Japanese restaurant,Korean restaurant,American restaurant,French re172、staurant 日本料理、韩国料理、美式西餐、法式西餐 Coffer Bar/Teahouse咖啡馆/茶坊 Starbucks（星巴克）,Kanabe（真锅）,Bifengtang teahouse（避风堂）,Yuanyuanyuan teahouse（圆缘园）,Dennis coffee（丹尼斯咖啡厅）Bar 酒吧 Hardrock（硬石）,paulaner（宝莱纳）Ppastry 面包店/Macopolo（马可波罗）,Le cossont（可颂坊）,Leisure Entertainmentx休闲娱乐设施 Ballroom,Karaok,舞厅、歌厅 Food City Tenant Su173、ggestion Type 可选择可选择客户种类客户种类 Example 品牌品牌/产品举例产品举例 First Floor:Middle scale Supermarket Citymart（雅克多）,Hualian（华联）,Lianhua（联华）,post office（邮局），Yonghe（永和大王），Ajison Noodles（味千拉面），Rogers（罗杰斯）Second Floor:Cuisine Square/Street美食广场/街 Megabite（大食代）,KFC（肯德基）,Mcdonald（麦当劳）Sports Center Tenant Suggestion Type174、 可选择可选择客户种类客户种类 Example 品牌品牌/产品举例产品举例 Sports Facilities 运动娱乐设施 Gym,Badminton court,Pingpang court,Cards and chess room,Snork,Raquet court,Tennis court,Yoga room,swimming pool,健身房，羽毛球球场，乒乓球场，棋牌室，台球室，壁球馆，网球场，瑜伽室，游泳中心，Chapter 2 Recommendations 项目开发规划建议 32Sport Wear&Equitment Store Nike（耐克）,Addidas（阿迪达斯175、）,Northface,The right tenants/commodity mix can guarantee success of the subject retail project.After full development of the whole subject project,the office buildings become a symbol as well as improving the reputation of the subject project improved.本案项目商业部分及休闲娱乐部分成功的主要因素是确保其客户组合和商品组合能购吸引周边住宅消费者以176、及本案办公楼和开发区内的工作人群。随着本项目办公楼和酒店部分成为该区域地标型建筑，在长期内本案商业的知名度、声誉将有所提高；商圈辐射范围将有所扩大。2.6.Phasing Recommendations 项目分期开发建议项目分期开发建议 We recommend to develop the subject property in four phases.The.Food Court and phase one of the sports center and the four star hotel near Hongmei Road Tianlin Road will be develope177、d in the first phase.This phase should create an attractive environemnet,well landscaped and provide commercial facilities,which are currently in demand but not available within the subject market area currently.Phase Two would comprise of One of the twin office buildings(Tower One)near Hongmei Road178、.This development would satisfy the existing office demand,create an Icon building as well as block the noisy traffic from the Middle Ring Line.Phase two would also consist of a portion of Streetscape Food&Beverage.The Third Phase would consist of,the service apartment,the second phase of the sports179、 center,the remainder of the Streetscape Food&Beverage development,50%of the Strata-titled Apartments and phase one of the Shopping Plaza.Phase Four would consist of the second Office Tower,the remaining 50%of Strata-titled Service apartment and the second phase of the Shopping Plaza.The remaining s180、trata-titled service apartment and shopping plaza(shopping plaza phase two)will be developed to achievet the short term financial returns.From the developers orientation,we recommend leveraging off the existing environment of nearby large green areas and parks,the existing demand generated from the 181、industrial corporations in the Caohejing Hi-Tech park and the existing culture and training facilities such as the nearby universities.从项目的整体考虑，我们建议共分为四期开发，从东至西，从北至南的推进式开发。先开发虹梅路田林路四星级酒店以及美食城和一期休闲运动中心，为整体定位打下良好的人气基础；再开发东面标志型写字楼区隔项目周边的中环线人流较杂的影响，辅以一部分休闲餐饮和娱乐；随后开发服务式酒店公寓、二期运动休闲中心，部分休闲购物广场、产权式酒店公寓和另一幢标182、志性写字楼，Chapter 2 Recommendations 项目开发规划建议 33全面提升整个区域的商业配套设施品质，着眼区域长期竞争力和投资价值。最后在真个区域价值得到最大的提升之后，开发剩余部分产权式酒店公寓和休闲购物广场，获得短期最大的利润值。从产品的角度，充分利用地块内部的公共绿地和周边的漕河泾公园等自然环境和漕河泾开发区电子产业特征以及上海西部多所大学共同营造的高科技人才聚集的人文环境，突出项目独特优势和定位，以得到最大利润。Development Phasing 开发分期开发分期 Phasing分期分期 Development Component 项目项目 Phase 1 一期183、一期 Food and Beverage Facilities(Food City),Sports Center and Hotel 部分餐饮（美食城）部分餐饮（美食城）+部分运动休闲中心部分运动休闲中心+酒店酒店Phase 2 二期二期 Office(Tower One)and Food and Beverage Facilities(Streetscape)部分标志型办公部分标志型办公+部分餐饮（休闲街）部分餐饮（休闲街）Phase 3 三期三期 Sport Center,Food and Beverage Facilities(Streetscape),Service apartment184、,Office(Tower Two),Strata-titled Apartment and Supporting Shopping Facilities(Shopping Plaza Phase One)部分运动休闲中心部分运动休闲中心,部分餐饮（休闲街）部分餐饮（休闲街）+服务式酒店公寓服务式酒店公寓+部分标志型写字楼部分标志型写字楼+部分产权式酒店公寓部分产权式酒店公寓+部分休闲购物广场部分休闲购物广场 Phase 4 四期四期 Strata-titled Apartment and Supporting Shopping Facilities(Shopping Plaza Phase 185、Two)部分休闲购物广场部分休闲购物广场+部分产权式酒店公寓部分产权式酒店公寓 Phasing schedule 开发时间开发时间 Car Parking 停车场Sports Center 运动休闲Retail/F&B/Supermarket餐饮（包括1个中型超市）Retail/Entertainment 娱乐Retail/Retail Services 休闲购物广场Strata-tilted Apartment 产权式酒店公寓（出售）Serviced Apartment 服务式酒店公寓（出租）Twin Office Towers写字楼Hotel 酒店201020092008200720062186、0052004Recommended Development Components 物业物业Car Parking 停车场Sports Center 运动休闲Retail/F&B/Supermarket餐饮（包括1个中型超市）Retail/Entertainment 娱乐Retail/Retail Services 休闲购物广场Strata-tilted Apartment 产权式酒店公寓（出售）Serviced Apartment 服务式酒店公寓（出租）Twin Office Towers写字楼Hotel 酒店2010200920082007200620052004Recommended D187、evelopment Components 物业物业 We recommend,that in order to maximize the profitability of the development,that the strata-titled development takes place in the later phases,when the sites value has Chapter 2 Recommendations 项目开发规划建议 34been enhanced through Phase One and Two commercial developments.The 188、whole positioning and atmosphere of the site can be value-added and enhanced by such a phased development schedule.从项目未来预期升值空间考虑，我们尽量把可售的产品放在最后，以使得产品市场价值最大化，并形成区域鲜明商务专业性和商业配套主题，服务和提升周边地块。Phase 1:Food and Beverage Facilities(Food City),Sports Center and Hotel 部分餐饮（美食城）部分餐饮（美食城）+部分运动休闲中心部分运动休闲中心+酒店酒店 189、We recommend,developing the hotel,food city and phase one of the sports center in first phase.The focus of this initial phase to to create a theme of attractive landscaping and high level development positioning,which will be anchored by the hotel development.The development of the hotel will create190、 a good image of the site for customers and create the high end positioning of the northeast corner of the site.The Food City will satisfy food and beverage needs and some selective need of employees in the area,which will create more recognition of the subject site.This is turn should enhance marke191、t recognition of the site as a“commercial hub”.从项目的整体推广的策略考虑。我们建议将酒店、美食城和一期休闲运动中心作为第一期。本项目的卖点在于生态绿化景观和高档的定位，而本项目的酒店作为未来漕河泾开发区域最高标准的酒店之一，无疑是这些卖点的最好体现。酒店的落成能够确定项目的整体定位，首先在客户心中留下良好的印象，并使其认可本地块东北角高档的定位，对未来的其他产品打下良好的基础。美食城主要满足目前周边办公楼区员工午间餐饮多样化和可选择性需求，并能将漕河泾新谷公司管理下辖的办公楼人群等吸引过来，为未来其他产品打下良好的人气基础。We recommen192、d,that the hotel commence construction in 2006 and be completed in 2008.The hotel could be operational in 2008.Food City should commence construction,once the land is available.On the removal of existing occupants and buildings on the subject site,the Food Court facility should be developed.The firs193、t level should be a mid sized supermarket and the second floor of food city should be a food court.我们建议酒店在 2006 年开始建设，2008 年建成，当年即可投入使用，美食城在地块拆迁完成后即开始建设，从地块拆迁完成后到 2007 年，陆续打造美食天地起，吸引人气和提升认可度，并在底层引进一家中型超市。Phase 2:Office(Tower One)and Food and Beverage Facilities(Streetscape)部分标志型办公部分标志型办公+部分餐饮（休闲街）部分194、餐饮（休闲街）Chapter 2 Recommendations 项目开发规划建议 35We recommend developing one of the twin office buildings as well as the streetscape Food&Beverage in the second phase.Hongmei Road is the future Middle Ring Line under construction,so the office buildings located here can benefit from the transportation fa195、cilities as well as to block the relatively disarrayed persons flow for W19 site.Although office building projects are highly demanded in the Caohejing Hi-Tech park,there will be a number of pure office buildings developed before the beginning of 2006,so we recommend building the subject office buil196、ding in 2007 to avoid an oversupply situation.We recommend developing the subject office tower as a Icon(symbol)office building for Shanghais electronic industry in Caohejing Hi-Tech Park.Tower One is expected to be in the market by 2009 and the operation of the office building will cooperate with t197、he four star hotel in the south to make the site develop into symbol commercial center in the Caohejing market area.在一期对项目整体定位确立的基础上，我们建议将一幢标志型办公楼和部分休闲餐饮街作为整体项目的二期。虹梅路是未来规划中的中环线，标志型办公楼靠近中环线交通便利，同时能够为地块阻隔相对杂乱的人流。办公楼的项目在漕河泾开发区内是有相当的接受度的，但考虑到 2006 年初以前即将推出的纯写字楼体量较大为了避免过度竞争，项目标志型写字楼建议在 2007 年开始建造，并利用园区电198、子产业聚集优势，打造上海电子城专业标志型写字楼，预计在2009年全部可以入市。标志型办公楼的建成和客户的入住同南部的四星级酒店相互呼应，形成漕河泾地标性商务中心，确立了项目的整体定位。We recommend,that the office building is only for lease.In this way,its easier for the developer to manage the building and to achieve a long-term stable profit.The recommended office positioning as a special199、ized office building for electronic companies can help improve/enhance the industrial positioning of Caohejing Hi-Tech Park and even take the lead position in Shanghai in electronic industry.办公楼我们建议采用出租的形式，对于开发商来说便于管理，由于有高质而稳定的客源，开发商也能获得长期而稳定的收益，同时其鲜明的电子产业专业写字楼特征也为提升整个漕河泾开发区的产业定位和确立在上海乃至长江三角洲电子科技类龙头200、地位作出贡献。We recommend,commencing phase 2 in 2007 and to end at the end of 2008.Tenant recruit can be started in the middle of 2008.我们建议二期在 2007 年开始建设，2008 年底完工，在 2008 年中即可开始招商。The speed of the development progress must be strictly controlled.Our recommendation is to attract several well known and larg201、e electronic companies as anchor tenants for the office building and then to attract some upstream and down Chapter 2 Recommendations 项目开发规划建议 36stream chain supply companies.Due to the increasing land value,areas that have good views are suggested be available for lease in the latter phase.在推案时尽量控制202、推案的速度，前期建议先引进一家到几家大型并有广泛知名度的电子科技产业的明星企业，作为整个专业写字楼的主要客户，后期根据市场竞争原则，再引进一些为电子科技类、通讯类密切服务的上下游企业，如电子贸易类等。同时由于后期土地价格的增长，尽量使景观较好的可租写字楼部分推后租赁，以使租金达到较为理想的位置。Phase Three:Sport Center,Food and Beverage Facilities(Streetscape),Service apartment,Office(Tower Two),Strata-titled Apartment and Shopping Plaza(Shoppi203、ng Plaza Phase One)部分运动休闲中心部分运动休闲中心,部分餐饮（休闲街）部分餐饮（休闲街）+服务式酒店公寓服务式酒店公寓+部分标志型写字楼部分标志型写字楼+部分产权式酒店公寓部分产权式酒店公寓+部分休闲购物广场部分休闲购物广场 We recommend,that phase three develop the phase two of the Sports Center,Food and Beverage Facilities(Streetscape),the Service apartment,Office(Tower Two),50%of the Strata-title204、d Apartments and phase one of the Shopping Plaza.部分运动休闲中心，部分餐饮（休闲街），服务式酒店公寓，部分标志型写字楼，部分产权式酒店公寓，部分休闲购物广场作为第三期，主要是从人气和项目综合商业配套提升的角度考虑，和办公楼、酒店一样，服务式酒店公寓可以为本案商业带来人气，而且可以和酒店产品形成时间上的互补，满足长租商务客源的需求。The large scale of the sport&entertainment center is a major focus and differentiation for the subject projec205、t.The goal of this development phase is to bring vigor to the area and satisfy the identified needs of the employees and residents in the subject market area.The center will attract some people on weekend,too.We recommend development of these properties in 2008 to be completed in 2010.大规模的休闲运动中心是本项目206、的一大卖点，也是上海西部生活的一个亮点，通过这个休闲运动俱乐部的营建，给漕河泾开发区的办公区（包括厂房办公楼和纯写字楼）、一般商业、酒店区带来了活力，让周边的员工及居民在工作之余能动静结合，并使整个项目地块保证长期的繁荣和人气，不至于在周末和非工作时间过于冷清。所有三期物业建议 2008 年开始建造，2010 年完工。Phase 4:Strata-titled Apartment and Shopping Plaza Phase Two 部分休闲购物广场部分休闲购物广场+部分产权式酒店公寓部分产权式酒店公寓 Phase Four of the project,is the strata-tit207、led service apartment and bars area start operation,the commercial atmosphere in the area will be mature and large popularity Chapter 2 Recommendations 项目开发规划建议 37already exist.Tenants from service apartment,guests from hotel and employees from office building will generate market demand for this ph208、ase of development and reduce the risk.The already completed projects will benefit from the promotion of the Shopping Plaza Phase Two,which in turn will further improve the business atmosphere of the area.作为项目的最后一期，其在开始对外招租的时候，周围的环境已经较为成熟，随着办公的交房和入住，商业的聚集，人气也开始逐渐提升。办公的人群和酒店、服务式酒店公寓住户可以为商业带来潜在的消费群，降低209、商业的投资风险，提高市场接受度。这些条件较利于休闲购物中心商业项目的推广，而休闲购物中心商业项目的成熟也可以推动项目整体环境和配套的档次的进一步提升。Owing to the favorable environment with green land and the suitable total price of the small units,the strata-titled service apartment project we anticipate will be popular in the market.It will be good choice for owner-occup210、iers as well asI investors.When the strata-titled service apartment are released in the market,the hotel is already operational and the office building has completed construction,the large area of retail is under construction as well,and all these factors will support the promotion of the strata-tit211、led service apartment to ensure the projects sales and good price.由于有绿地景观的支持，另外小户型产权式酒店公寓的总价合适，这部分产品将较受市场欢迎，无论投资或者自住，对于买家都是较好的选择。另外产权式酒店公寓的销售周期中，周边的酒店已经投入运营，办公楼已经基本完工，未来项目的大面积商业已经在建，这些对于产权式酒店公寓产品都是十分良好的支持。成熟的景观，未来综合的规划，对于自住客、投资客或未来的租客，吸引力都是十分巨大的，这样也可以使我们的产品价格提升。We recommend the commencement of const212、ruction of phase four in 2009 to be completed by 2011.The sales promotion can be started in 2010.我们建议产权式四期产品 2009 年开始建造，2011 年完工。2010 年就可以开始预售和招商。The promotion strategy of the strata-titled service apartments will be similar to that of the office building.But as the residential projects are more eff213、ected by views of the environment,the price difference will be larger for the strata-titled service apartment,which also has more potential for the price increase in the future.Therefore,the sales of the service apartment should be under control in order to achieve the maximized profit.The developme214、nt schedules fit with each other tightly with the completion of office building,service apartment,four star hotel and Chapter 2 Recommendations 项目开发规划建议 38high-end retail project.在具体的推案过程中，产权式酒店公寓产品和办公产品的原则基本类似，但是该居住产品受到景观的影响较为严重，其价格差较大，未来升值也更具潜力，因此在项目销售的过程中要控制好景观房的销售。随着办公、服务式酒店公寓、四星级酒店企业租户及商务客源的入住，215、本项目的高档商业部分也可随后实现开业，时间上结合的十分紧密。Chapter 3 Macroeconomic and Policy Overview 宏观经济政策分析 39Chapter 3 Macroeconomic and Policy Overview 第三部分第三部分 宏观经济政策分析宏观经济政策分析 Shanghai is the largest economic centre and trade port in China.Being the trade,finance and information centre of China,Shanghai is also the larg216、est city in China.Many multi-national corporations and local companies have established their country headquarters in Shanghai,with some even setting up their Asia Pacific headquarters in the city.上海是中国最大的经济中心和贸易港口，是全国最大的综合性城市，更是全国的贸易中心，金融中心和资讯中心。目前有许多的跨国公司以及国内的大型公司都把中国总部甚至亚洲总部设在上海。Given the strateg217、ic location of the city,Shanghai has a long history of foreign trade.In the 1920s and 1930s,Shanghai was the largest international trade centre in the Far East.Currently,via the development of Pudong,the Shanghai Municipal Government has maintained a strategy to develop Shanghai as an international 218、finance and trade center.由于上海地域的独特性，所以上海对外贸易有着悠久的历史。早在上个世纪的 20、30 年代，上海就是远东地区最大的国际贸易中心。目前上海仍然以开发浦东和建设成为国际经济、金融、贸易中心的城市为发展策略。3.1 Macro economics in Shanghai 上海宏观经济分析上海宏观经济分析 3.1.1 Gross Domestic Product(GDP)上海国内生产总值及增长率上海国内生产总值及增长率 As illustrated in Figure1,Shanghai experienced a period of rapid econ219、omic growth between 1992 and 1997,with average economic growth of approximately 14%per annum.After a period of rapid growth,the economic base of Shanghai was strengthened.From 1998 onwards,the growth rate of GDP in Shanghai has been maintained at 10%per annum.In 2003,Shanghai has achieved GDP of RMB220、 625.081 billion in total with 15.57%growth rate,and will reach RMB 700 billion in the year of 2004 as expected.In the light of the continued economic development of the city,entry into WTO,and the positive impact of the World Expo to be hosted by Chapter 3 Macroeconomic and Policy Overview 宏观经济政策分析221、 40Shanghai in 2010,it is anticipated that the growth rate of GDP in Shanghai will continue to equate to above 10%per annum in the medium to long term.从图 1 中可以看出，经济快速发展阶段是在 1992 年至 1997 年间，平均年增长率在 14%左右。在经过一段时间的快速增长后，上海经济发展速度的基数也随之增大，所以从 1998 年以后，上海国内生产总值的年均增长率一直保持在 10%以上。2003 年上海实现国内生产总值人民币 6250.81222、 亿元，增长 15.57，据预测，2004年上海实现的国内生产总值有望接近人民币 7,000 亿元。由于上海世博会等发展因素，预计在中长期时间内，上海国内生产总值的年增长率将继续保持在 10%以上。The per capita GDP of Shanghai has also increased rapidly,from RMB8,652(US$1,042)per annum in 1991 to RMB46,227(US$5,589)per annum in 2003,with an average growth rate of 17%per annum over the past 13 y223、ears.上海人均国内生产总值也从1991年的8,652 元/年(1,042美元/年)快速增长到2003年的 46,227 元/年（5589 美元/年），这 13 年间的平均年增长速度为 17%。Chart 3.1:Shanghais GDP and its Growth(1990 2004)图 3.1:上海国民生产总值及增长率(1990 2004)Chapter 3 Macroeconomic and Policy Overview 宏观经济政策分析 41 Source:Shanghai Statistics Yearbooks 资料来源：上海统计年鉴 3.1.2 Total Retail 224、Sales 社会消费品零售总额社会消费品零售总额 Total retail sales in Shanghai increased from RMB33.386 billion in 1990 to RMB222.064 billion in 2003,representing an increase of 13%per annum.The total retail sales within the period of the first half of year 2004 equated to RMB121.508 billion,accounting for 35.6%of the GDP225、 of Shanghai.上海社会消费品零售总额 1990 年为 333.86 亿元，2003 年为 2220.64 亿元，平均年增长率为 13%。2004 年 1-9 月，上海社会消费品零售总额为 1823 亿元，占上海国内生产总值的 35.6%左右。Chart:3.2 Total Retail Sales in Shanghai(1990 2004)图 3.2:上海社会消费品零售总额（1990-2004）上海 GDP 及增长率 Shanghai GDP 0.00 1000.00 2000.00 3000.00 4000.00 5000.00 6000.00 7000.00 1990 199226、1 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 1-9 年度 Year GDP 0.0%2.0%4.0%6.0%8.0%10.0%12.0%14.0%16.0%18.0%GDP 增长率 GDP increasement GDP 值(亿元）GDP 增长率 Chapter 3 Macroeconomic and Policy Overview 宏观经济政策分析 42 Source:Shanghai Statistics Yearbooks 资料来源：上海统计年鉴 3.1.3 Disposable Income 居227、民可支配收入居民可支配收入 According to the Shanghai Statistics Yearbook,the annual disposable income of urban residents in Shanghai increased from RMB2,182 in 1990 to RMB14,867 in 2003.Within the 14 years between 1990 and 2003,an average growth rate of 16.5%per annum was achieved in relation to the disposable i228、ncome of urban residents in Shanghai.根据上海统计年鉴的数据，1990 年上海城镇居民人均可支配收入为 2,182 元/年，2003 年城镇居民人均可支配收入已经增长到 14,867 元/年。在 1990 年至 2003 年的 14 年间，上海城镇居民可支配收入的年增长速度为 16.5%。Chart 3.3:Disposable Income of Urban Residents in Shanghai(1990-2004)图 3.3:城镇居民可支配收入（1990-2004）社会消费品零售总额(百万元)Retail Sales of Social Consu229、mer Goods 100 million yuan 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 1-9 社会消费品零售总额(百万元)Retail Sales of Social Consumer Goods 100 million yuan Chapter 3 Macroeconomic and Policy Overview 宏观经济政策分析 43 Source:Shanghai Statist230、ics Yearbooks 资料来源：上海统计年鉴 It should,however,be noted that the level of disposable income as published by the Government may not fully reflect the level of affordability and the living standard of the population as the income recorded by the Government does not include other additional welfare paymen231、ts and allowances enjoyed by employees such as housing and medical benefits,which are commonly offered to employees in Government Departments,as well as state owned,foreign and domestic private companies.无论如何，在此值得注意的是，统计年鉴中公布的人均可支配收入并不能真正地反映出上海居民的生活水平和实际收入，因为政府统计的数据中可能并不完全包括政府工作人员、外资和国营企业员工的金融收入，住房、232、医疗补贴，奖金等等。Based upon the analysis completed,it has been established that the average salary of employees retained by foreign companies in Shanghai is approximately RMB5,000-6,000 per month,which is higher than the figures published by the Government.根据统计计算，在外企工作的员工平均工资水平为每月 5,000-6,000 元，远远高于政府公布的平均233、收入数字。城镇居民人均可支配收入 Disposable Income of Urban Residents 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 1-9 年度 Year 元 Yuan Chapter 3 Macroeconomic and Policy Overview 宏观经济政策分析 44Table3.1 Annual Per Capita Disposable Income of Res234、idents in Shanghai Urban Area(19852003)(RMB)表 3.1 上海城市居民家庭每年人均可支配收入(19852003)(人民币)年份 Year 平均 Average 最低收入戶 Lowest Income 低 收 入戶 Low Income 中 等 收入戶Medium Income 高 收 入戶 High Income 最 高 收 入戶 Highest Income 1985 1075 665 818 1043 1377 1648 1986 1293 865 979 1256 1643 1970 1987 1437 920 1087 1380 1884 23235、04 1988 1723 1094 1278 1678 2284 2789 1989 1975 1226 1476 1919 3129 3104 1990 2182 1388 1634 2104 2845 3449 1991 2486 1519 2089 2434 3281 4163 1992 3009 1770 2168 2936 3952 5020 1993 4277 2312 3236 4017 5900 7547 1994 5868 2967 3761 5405 8234 11608 1995 7172 3486 4587 6600 10032 13796 1996 8159 4007236、 5147 7528 11147 15639 1997 8439 4080 5369 7939 11834 15916 1998 8773 4148 5626 8132 12126 16452 1999 10932 5655 6837 9534 15221 24006 2000 11718 6169 7607 10529 16135 23849 2001 12883 6103 7700 11155 16935 30615 2002 13250 5791 7574 11629 18750 31619 Chapter 3 Macroeconomic and Policy Overview 宏观经济237、政策分析 452003 _ _ 7463 11321 21296 _ Source:Shanghai Statistics Yearbooks 资料来源：上海统计年鉴 Before 2002,the income of all residents increased,and in 2002 the capita disposable income of the Lowest and Lower Income Residents decreased with the average income grew.The gap between the poor and the rich will be238、 widen further in the future in Shanghai.在 2002 前无论何种家庭的可支配收入均随着平均收入的增长而增长，但 2002 年和 2003 年连续两年最低收入与低收入家庭的可支配收入随着平均收入的增长而有所下降，由此上海的贫富差异将在未来有进一步的扩展。3.1.4 Consumer Price Index 消费价格指数消费价格指数 The Consumer Price Index in Shanghai decreased from 106.3 in 1990 to 100.1 in 2003.As illustrated in Figure 4,the239、 index has shown a downward trend since 1995,due to deflation.As in 2003,the Consumer Price Index was 100.1,representing a marginal downward adjustment as compared with the Consumer Price Index of 100.5 as at the end of 2002.It is anticipated that the Consumer Price Index will remain relatively stab240、le in the short to medium term.上海消费价格指数从 1990 年的 106.3 降至 2003 年的 100.1。如图 4 中所示，由于通货紧缩，上海消费价格指数呈下降趋势。2003 年的消费价格指数为 100.1，比2002 年底的 100.5 有所轻微下调。预计未来上海消费价格指数在中短期内将保持稳定。Chart 3.4:Consumer Price Index(1990 2004)图 3.4:消费价格指数（1990-2004）Chapter 3 Macroeconomic and Policy Overview 宏观经济政策分析 46*2004 年 1-9 241、月数据来源：上海统计局网站月度数据。Source:Shanghai Statistics Yearbooks 资料来源：上海统计年鉴 3.1.5 Foreign Direct Investment 外资企业外资企业 There has been a significant increase in the number of international companies in Shanghai over the past ten years.Between 1990 and 2003,there has been consistent growth in the number of compa242、nies with some form of foreign investment,equating to an annual average of 2,730 companies.The number of employees of international companies has also increased.上海外商投资力度持续增长，自 1990 年至 2003 年，上海每年新批三资企业数量一直在增加，平均每年新增为 2,730 家左右。三资企业雇员数量也在持续增加，带动上海整体消费水平的增加。At the end of the year of 2003,foreign direc243、t investments in Shanghai are from 108 countries and areas.More than 300 companies in the Fortune 500 invest in Shanghai.There are 56 regional headquarters,90 investment companies and 106 R&D centers of multinational companies in Shanghai.居民消费价格指数 Consumer Price Index of Residents*0 20 40 60 80 100 244、120 140 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 1-9 年度 Year 指数(以上年为 100)Index(Price level of the previous yr=100)居民消费价格指数 Consumer Price Index of Residents Chapter 3 Macroeconomic and Policy Overview 宏观经济政策分析 47至 2003 年末,在上海投资的国家和地区已达 108 个，财富 500 强企业已有 300 多家进入上海。245、跨国公司地区总部、投资性公司和研发中心分别达到 56 家，90 家和 106 家。The increase in foreign direct investment in Shanghai has facilitated the evolution of Shanghai into a world-class city,enhanced the economic growth of Shanghai(together with the growth of income of Shanghai residents),as well as facilitated the growth of the246、 commercial property market in Shanghai.跨国公司进入上海，不仅使上海挤入世界级城市的行列，同时使得上海的经济和人均收入都有快速增长的作用，同时更使得商业房地产市场日益繁荣。Chart 3.5:Foreign Direct Investment in Shanghai 图 3.5:上海外商直接投资 Source:Shanghai Statistics Yearbooks 资料来源：上海统计年鉴 The total level of foreign direct investment in Shanghai has increased significant247、ly in recent years,from US$0.214 billion in 1990 to US$11.064 billion in 2003.In 2003,Shanghai has attracted contracted foreign capital of US$11.064 billion with 23.5%growth in the same period last year.The actual foreign capital flow in is US$5.85 外商直接投资额 FDI 0.00 20.00 40.00 60.00 80.00 100.00 120248、.00 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 1-9 年度 Year 亿美元 100million yuan Chapter 3 Macroeconomic and Policy Overview 宏观经济政策分析 48billion with the growth rate of 30.1%compared to the previous year.It is expected that the level of investment will continue to grow i249、n the short to medium term.From January to September in 2004,the government has approved 3383 foreign investment projects,attracting contracted foreign capital of US$92.04.By the end of September 2004,there are altogether more than 35000 foreign invested companies in Shanghai.在过去几年内，上海外商投资金额有者快速的增长，250、1990 年上海吸收外资合同金额为 2.14 亿美元，到 2003 年上海吸收外资合同金额已达 110.64 亿美元，同比增长 23.5；实际到位金额为 58.5 亿美元，增长 30.1%。上海今年前三个季度吸收外资在高基础上实现稳步增长。19 月，本市共批准外商投资项目 3383 个，吸收合同外资金额达 92.04 亿美元。截至 2004 年 9 月底，上海市累计批准外商投资企业 35000 多家。3.1.6 Shanghai Tourism Economy 上海市旅游经济上海市旅游经济 In recent years,tourism in Shanghai keeps growing an251、d more and more tourists come here.The concept of city tourism is improving with the integrated elements of exhibition tourism,business tourism and leisure and vocational tourism.近年来，上海市旅游业持续良好运营，来上海旅游以及以上海为中心的旅游人数逐步增长，上海市的城市旅游概念正在逐步完善。会展旅游、商务考察旅游、休闲度假旅游等构成上海都市旅游的主体内涵并逐步形成旅游经济新的增长点。Chart 3.6 People 252、Numbers and Tourism Expense of tourists from other cities of China in Shanghai(Based on the datum of 2004)图 3.6 国内旅游者来沪人数及人均在沪旅游消费支出（2004 年数据为预计数）Chapter 3 Macroeconomic and Policy Overview 宏观经济政策分析 49 国内旅游者来沪人数及旅游消费Domestic tourists&expenditure40005000600070008000900010000199920002001200220032004旅游253、者人数 Tourists020040060080010001200140016001800人均旅游消费Expenditure per capita 人均消费(元)expenditure per capita(Yuan)旅游者人数(万人)Tourist(10 Thousand)Data resource:Shanghai Tourism Administration Bureau 资料来源：上海市旅游事业管理委员会 Since 1999,the number of domestic tourists keeps increasing in Shanghai,with a growth rate 254、of about 4-6%annually(In 2003,the number of tourists dropped by 13.2%because of the crisis of SAS).It is expected that about 95 million domestic tourists will visit Shanghai in the year of 2004.In the future,more and more domestic tourists will visit Shanghai owing to many factors such as internatio255、nalization of Shanghai,the event of World Exhibition Conference and many international sports games,etc.从 1999 年开始，国内来上海旅游的人数持续增长，增长率一直保持在 4-6%（2003年受非典影响，国内来沪旅游人数锐减，下降了 13.2%）。2004 年预计全年来沪旅游人数将达到新高 9500 万人次。预计随着上海日益成为国际化大都市，世博会的召开，众多国际赛事的举办等因素影响，国内来上海旅游的人数将逐年增加。Table 3.2 The number of foreign touri256、sts visiting Shanghai in some years 主要年份来上海的国际旅游入境人数 Chapter 3 Macroeconomic and Policy Overview 宏观经济政策分析 50年份 Year 国际旅游入境人数（万人）Tourists from abroad(10 thousand)日均来沪旅游人数（人）Tourists from abroad per day 平均逗留天数（天/人）average days in Shanghai(day/person)旅游外汇收入（亿美元）Tourism income(100million dollars)1978 24257、.02 658 3.87 0.56 1980 31.18 854 3.96 0.86 1990 89.3 2447 2.83 2.31 1995 136.79 3448 3.81 9.44 2000 181.4 4970 3.92 16.13 2001 204.26 5596 3.87 18.08 2002 272.53 7466 3.61 22.75 2003 319.87 8764 3.61 20.53 2004*353.6 9589-26 The number of 2004 is estimated data.2004*年数据为估计值。Data resource:Shanghai To258、urism Administration Bureau 资料来源：上海市旅游事业管理委员会 Since Shanghais position as business,economic and financial center is set up,and also the city image is improving abroad,more and more foreign tourists come to Shanghai for business or vacation.From January to August in 2004,about 2.398 million foreign t259、ourists visit Shanghai,at the daily number of 9788 on average.It can be foreseen that more foreign tourists will come to Shanghai since Shanghai will be the“window”of China to the world,the international metropolitan and the economic center of China.随着上海商务、经济、金融中心的确立，以及上海城市形象在国际上的不断提升，来沪观光旅游、商务旅游的外国260、人不断增多，近年来一直保持了强劲的增长势头。2004 年 1 月至 8 月，共计有 239.8 万国际游客入境，平均每天达到 9788 人次。预计随着上海作为中国对外的窗口，日益成为国际化大都市，成为中国经济中心，国际上来上海旅游的人员将逐年增加。3.1.7 Summary 小结小结 Chapter 3 Macroeconomic and Policy Overview 宏观经济政策分析 51GDP of Shanghai has kept two-digit increase rate since 2000 and can be expected to keep the increase i261、n the future,which builds a strong foundation for the subjected project.上海自 2000 年至 2004 年前三个季度 GDP 保持了两位数的年均增长率，预计未来上海的经济仍将保持快速增长，上海国民经济的持续增长为本案房地产项目提供了有力的支持和坚实的基础。The retail sales of social consumer goods of Shanghai and disposable income of residents have increased fast in recent years,which prov262、ides large potential market for the retail development part of the subjected project.上海社会商品零售总额和居民可支配收入在近几年都保持了快速的增长，为零售商业的发展提供了具有潜力的市场。Shanghais attractiveness for foreign investment as well as expats and tourists is growing because of stronger city competitive advantage and improvement of investme263、nt environment,witch increases the demand for middle-high level serviced apartment,hotel,office building,restaurant and entertainment facilities.由于城市竞争力的不断加强，投资环境的不断优化，上海对外商投资的吸引力正不断增加。外资的大量进入对上海经济的发展将起到巨大的促进作用，并使得上海对外籍雇员及旅游者的吸引力不断增强，从而增加了对上海中高档服务性公寓、酒店、办公楼及餐饮娱乐设施的市场需求。Tourism economy of Shanghai is264、 developing fast in these years.More and more tourists come to Shanghai since Shanghai becomes the business,economic and financial center of China.Strong tourism economy and its promising future provide a favorable environment for the hotel development part of the subjected project.上海市旅游业持续良好运营，来上海旅265、游的人数逐年快速增长。随着上海商务、经济、金融中心的确立，以及上海城市形象在国际上的不断提升，会展旅游、商务考察旅游、休闲度假旅游等将使上海旅游经济保持高速增长。旅游经济的强劲发展将为上海的酒店业营造良好的外部环境。3.2 Macro economy of Xuhui District 徐汇区经济环境分析徐汇区经济环境分析 Xuhui district is one of the center districts in Shanghai,located in the southwest of the urban area and covering an area of 54.8 square 266、kilometers.About 1.06 million Chapter 3 Macroeconomic and Policy Overview 宏观经济政策分析 52residents live in the district.Xuhui district borders with Luwan district in the west,is close to Pudong area across Huangpu River in the southeast,neighbors with counties like Minhang and Songjiang in the south and267、 west,borders on Jingan and Changning districts in the north.徐汇区是上海市的中心城区之一，位于市区西南部，区域面积 54.8 平方公里，常住人口 106 万。东以陕西南路、日晖港与卢湾区毗连，东南隔黄浦江与浦东地区相望，南以淀浦河、西以虹梅路与上海县为邻，北以长乐路、淮海西路与静安、长宁两区接壤。是青浦、奉贤、松江、金山等郊县进入市区的咽喉，又是通往浙、闽、赣、皖等省的要道。3.2.1 Macroeconomy of Xuhui district 徐汇区总体经济徐汇区总体经济 The aggregate economy of Xuh268、ui district keeps growing,for example,regional economy added value increased to 7.574 billion RMB in 2003 by 3.84 billion RMB from 3.734 billion RMB in 1997,with an increase rate of 12.51%annually.The aggregate economy of Xuhui district leads among urban districts of Shanghai.The structure of econom269、y has been improved,too.经济总量持续快速增长，地区增加值从1997年的37.34亿元增长到2003年的75.74亿元，六年内净增 38.4 亿元，平均每年增长 12.51%。经济总量继续保持中心城区领先水平，经济结构得到进一步调整和优化。Chart 3.7 Ratio of the three industries in Xuhuiyear 1997 and 2003 图 3.7 徐汇区三次产业的比例1997 年与 2003 年 Chapter 3 Macroeconomic and Policy Overview 宏观经济政策分析 53徐汇区三次产业比例-1997年R270、atio of three industries in Xuhui-Year 1997第一产业First industry,0.01%第二产业Second industry,26.59%第三产业Third industry,73.40%徐汇区三次产业比例-2003年Ratio of three industries in Xuhui-Year 2003第二产业Second industry,19.95%第三产业Third industry,80.05%Resource:CBRE 资料来源：世邦魏理仕 Retailing and real estate industries play very 271、important role in the third industry of Xuhui economy.In 2003,the added value of retailing was 1.995 billion RMB and the added value of real estate was 1.151 billion RMB,equal to 26.34%and 15.20%of the total regional added value respectively.Other parts of the third industry have been developed,too.272、The economy has been increasing at a rate of around 12%annually on average in the past six years(varied at 1.5%).其中，在第三产业中，商业、房地产业支柱作用明显。2003 年商业实现地区增加值 19.95 亿元，房地产实现地区增加值 11.51 亿元，分别占区属增加值总和的26.34%和 15.20%，其他服务业也有了很大发展。经济抗波动能力增强，六年中经济增长始终保持在 12%上下，波动在 1.5 个百分点左右。3.2.2 Retailing 商业商业 Chapter 3 Macr273、oeconomic and Policy Overview 宏观经济政策分析 54Social consumer goods market has been increasing and the consumption structure has been improved.In the past six years,retail sales of social consumer goods have been accumulated to 57.048 billion RMB,with an annual increase rate at 11.66%on average.The retai274、l sales of the year 2003 were 12.712 billion RMB,5.72%of the total retail sales of Shanghai.The consumption structure has also been improved.Consumptions in regard to real estate,automobiles,telecom,etc are increasing fast.Accordingly,Xujiahui commercial center adjusts and upgrades commodity structu275、re and achieves more economic benefits.In 2003,Xujiahui commercial center(including Grand Gateway shopping mall,Eastern department store,No.6 department store,Huijin department store,Pacific department store and Bainaohui digital products store,etc.)achieved retail sales of 6.075 billion RMB.Other t276、ypes of retails are developed,too,such as produce market,IT products market,construction materials market.Communal retailing has been developed very well:communal supermarket like Jiadeli,Top and Fresh and Haoyouduo have developed into 137 retail chains by the end of 2003 and achieved sales of 2.56 277、billion,increased by 54.91%compared to the previous year.消费品市场稳步增长，消费结构升级明显。六年来，共完成社会消费品零售总额 570.48 亿元。其中 2003 年达到 127.12 亿元，占全市总额的 5.72%，比上年增长 15.36%，六年中平均年增长 11.66%。居民消费能级提升趋势明显，住房、汽车、通讯类产品及与住房相关的商品消费进一步扩大。徐家汇商圈实施商品结构调整，注重经济效益的提高，其市级商业中心功能进一步突现。2003 年，徐家汇商圈内港汇、东方、六百、汇金、太平洋、汇联等百货商厦及太平洋、百脑汇等电脑市场共实现社278、会消费品零售 60.75 亿元。各类专业市场日益兴旺。农贸市场、电脑市场、建材装璜市场等均有较大发展。社区商业规模迅速扩大，纳税在本区的家得利、顶顶鲜、好又多等超市至 2003 年末网点总数达到 137 个，社会消费品零售总额 25.6 亿元，并上一年增长 54.91%，发展速度高于平均水平，成为区域商业中一支重要的生力军。3.2.3 Real Estate industry 房地产业房地产业 Real estate industry in Xuhui district has been very active,achieving added value of 1.152 billion RM279、B in 2003,increased by 2.43%compared to the previous year.From 1997 to 2003,secondary market for residential real estate had sold area of 7.4379 million square meters,increased by 2.43%compared to the previous year and achieved sales of 40.737 billion RMB.Chapter 3 Macroeconomic and Policy Overview 280、宏观经济政策分析 55房地产行业持续活跃。2003年实现增加值11.52亿元，比上一年增长幅度达2.43%。1997 至 2003 年六年间，商品房二级市场销售面积为 743.79 万平方米，成交金额为 407.37 亿元。预售面积为 768.15 万平方米，成交金额为 418.62 亿元。住宅商品房向大房型、高品质发展。1.115 million square meters of nonresidential real estate such as office buildings and retailing stores have been completed in the year of281、 2002.Large number of high quality office buildings is under construction.Real estate industry has made significance contribution to the aggregate economy in the district.非住宅商品房发展加快，2002 年徐汇区共推出 115 万平方米办公楼，商场等各类非住宅房产。另有一批高档商务楼正在加紧建造中。房地产业对区经济贡献进一步增长，行业税收 12 亿元，比上一年增长幅度达 49.03%。3.2.4 The second indu282、stry 工业工业 The secondary industry keeps growing.In 2003,total production value reached to 10.872 billion RMB,resulting from an annual increase rate of 15.23%in the previous six years.The concentration rate of the industry has improved.There are 22 companies that have achieved sales of more than 100 m283、illion RMB in 2003.Some emphasized industries like automobile and equipments,electrics,food processing,construction materials and mechanics,etc have been developed significantly and the relative supporting companies conglomerate come into being.Hi-tech industries such as electronics,biology engineer284、ing and new materials are improved,too.By the year of 2003,production value of hi-tech industries has counted for 44%of the total production sales of the district.Hi-tech industry parks are developing fast to start the aggregate effect.工业稳步增长。2003 年完成工业总产值 108.72 亿元，自 1997 年六年中平均年增长 15.23%。工业集聚度增强，2285、003 年工业企业年产值超亿元的企业达 22 家。工业企业效益良好，2003 年工业产销率为 99.93%，实现工业增加值为 14.13 亿元。重点发展汽车零配件加工、电气机械及器材、食品加工、建筑材料、机械设备、金属制品加工等工业，扶持和培育了相关的产业群体。以电子信息、生物医药、新材料为代表的高新技术产业得到了较大发展，到 2003 年，高新技术产值已占区工业产值的 44%。“三区三园”在产业政策扶持下迅速成长，产业优势和园区集聚效应开始显现。3.2.5 Foreign investment 吸引外资吸引外资 Chapter 3 Macroeconomic and Policy Overv286、iew 宏观经济政策分析 56Foreign investment has been increasing fast in the district.From 1997 to 2003,altogether 323 foreign invested projects have been approved and total foreign investment capital amounted to 1.15 billion dollars.In 2003,104 foreign invested companies were set up and contractual foreign in287、vestment capital was 290 million dollars,increased by 16%and 7%respectively compared to the previous year.利用外资大幅增长。1997 至 2003 年六年来，全区累计批准外商投资项目 323 个，投资总额 11.5 亿美元。其中 2003 年全年引进外商投资企业 104 家，合同利用外资 2.9 亿元，分别比上年增长 16%和 7%，为六年来最高水平。2003 年引进的外商投资企业中，服务业项目居多，有 79 个；引进的外商独资企业居多，有 59 家。3.2.6 Population an288、d residents income 居民人口与收入居民人口与收入 By the end of 2003,resident population of Xuhui district was 885 thousand,with density of 16161 persons/square kilometer.The incomes of residents keep growing.Annual income per capita amounted to 22870 RMB in 2003,more than the number of Shanghai at 22160 RMB.Reside289、nts savings are increasing and reached to saving balance of 41.85 billion RMB and 2.045 billion dollars.截至 2003 年末，全区户籍人口为 88.5 万，区域人口密度为 16161 人/平方公里。居民收入水平稳步增长。全区从业人员 2003 年平均劳动报酬为 22870 元，高于全市平均劳动报酬水平 22160 元，比上年增长 12.94%。居民储蓄稳定增加。2003年末区域内居民人民币储蓄余额为 418.5 亿元，同比增长 23.5%。居民外币存款余额为 20.45 亿美元。3.2.7 290、Summary 小结小结 The fast growth and development of macro economy of Xuhui district,especially of real estate,retailing and hi-tech industries,etc,and increase of the consumption ability of residents provide the subjected project with promising macro economic environment.徐汇区的经济持续增长，尤其是房地产业、商业和高科技产业的快速发展291、以及居民消费力的不断提高，为本案房地产开发项目提供了良好的外部环境。3.3 Government policies analysis 宏观政策分析宏观政策分析 3.3.1 Macro economic policies 宏观经济政策宏观经济政策 From the first half of year 2004,central government laid out several policies aimed to control development speed of macro economy,which will have significant impact on real esta292、te industry.These policies include:Chapter 3 Macroeconomic and Policy Overview 宏观经济政策分析 572004 年上半年以来,政府出台了多项旨在抑制经济过快增长的宏观调控政策,对于房地产行业而言有较大影响。这些调控政策包括：Central bank has raised reserve rate for saving account by 0.5%since April 25,2004.央行自 2004 年 4 月 25 日起提高存款准备金 0.5 个百分点。State Department announced to293、 regulate on increasing capital ratio to total investment amount in some fixed assets investment projects in such industries as steel,electrolyzed aluminum,cement and real estate development.Specifically,capital ratio of real estate projects is regulated at 35%instead of the original 20%(economical 294、residential projects are excluded).国务院发出通知，决定适当提高钢铁、电解铝、水泥、房地产开发固定资产投资项目资本金比例。其中，房地产开发（不含经济适用房项目）资本金比例从 20%及以上提高到 35%及以上。The restraints to give loans are stringent according to the three“window guidelines”issued before National Day in 2004.五一前夕，银监会出台三条“窗口指导精神”，严控贷款。Most real estate developers rely o295、n loans from banks to finance the projects.Therefore,capital cost and development cost increase with the loan stringency,interest rate floating and price rising of construction materials.由于目前国内房地产行业的融资渠道过于单一，基本依靠银行贷款。随着银根紧缩、利率上浮，加之建筑材料的成本上升，房地产开发商资本成本和开发成本正在逐步提高。同时，宏观调控政策也使得市场上房贷加息预期的升级。3.3.2 Real e296、state policies analysis 房地产政策背景分析房地产政策背景分析 In the year of 2004,central government laid out a series of policies on real estate to curb the overheat development of the industry.2004 年，政府为了控制房地产投资过热的现象，出台了一系列的政策来规范房地产市场的健康运营。3.3.2.1 Policies 政策内容 A Regulation of prohibiting resale of uncompleted real 297、estate in Shanghai.上海市“期房限转”政策 Chapter 3 Macroeconomic and Policy Overview 宏观经济政策分析 58According to the latest,pre-purchased real estate can not be resold before completion of construction.When the real estate are sold after completion of construction,the transaction must be registered to relative ad298、ministration bureau.This policy is not applied to nonresidential real estate yet because the sales of nonresidential real estate only accounted for 6.4%of the sales of total real estate in 2003 and can not make impact on speculation in the market.根据最新的关于预售商品房转让问题的决定，“自 2004 年 4 月 26 日起，预购人购买的预售商品住房应299、当在竣工并取得房地产权证后进行转让，并按规定办理房地产转移登记；在取得房地产权证前，房地产登记机构不办理预售商品住房转让的预告登记。”由于非居住商品房，如办公用房、商铺等销售目前所占比重较小，去年仅占整个商品房总销售面积的 6.4%，因此对其期房转让行为，目前暂不作限制。B Regulation of website registration of real estate transactions in Shanghai 上海市“商品房销售网上备案登记”制度 According to the regulation,developers must announce all items of id300、entification of the new commercial real estate project in the website after trey acquire presale permission or property license of the real estate.The items of identification that need to be declared include layout plane drawing,layer structure plane drawing,building table of commercial real estate(301、including total units/sets),structure/position/area of every unit,real estate mortgage,seal-up,format transaction contract,preset price,etc.据规定，沪上新建商品房项目，在房地产开发企业取得预售许可证或者房屋产权证后，上网公布各项“身份资料”。内容有：商品房预售许可证或者新建商品房房屋产权证；规划平面布置图、建筑分层平面图；商品房的楼盘表，包括总的单元（套）数，以及每单元（套）的部位、结构、面积等测绘结果；房地产抵押、查封等权利限制情况；商品房销售合同的示范302、文本；商品房拟销售的价格等。C Higher threshold for loans in real estate industry 房地产行业贷款门槛提高 On June 15,2003,central bank set down a regulation of,i.e.Document No.121.The regulation raised the threshold of real estate industry:only good quality developers who have high credit rate and no bad debt records are gran303、ted with loans.Residential projects for low-middle income residents get priority to get loans and the loans for high-end residential projects and villa projects will be restricted.The loan for land reservoir is Chapter 3 Macroeconomic and Policy Overview 宏观经济政策分析 59confined as mortgage loans and the304、 loans are not permitted to exceed 70%of the value of the acquired land.As to individual loans,commercial banks are only permitted to give loans to the projects that already complete structure building and the interest rates are raised for the loans that are applied to buy the second property.2003 年305、 6 月 15 日，中国人民银行颁布了关于进一步加强房地产信贷的通知，即“121 号文件”。该文件主要提高了房地产贷款的标准：开发贷款的对象为具备开发资质、信用等级较高、没有拖欠工程款的房地产企业。贷款应重点支持符合中低收入阶层购买力的住宅项目，限制高档住宅、别墅项目的贷款；对土地储备贷款要审慎发放，且明确其贷款应为抵押贷款，贷款的额度不得超过所收购土地的评估值的 70%，贷款的期限不得超过 2 年；建筑施工企业不得利用贷款为房产项目开发垫资；在个人商业贷款上，商业银行只能对购买主体结构已经封顶住房的个人发放贷款，并提高购买第二套住房的首付比例和贷款利率。3.3.2.2 Background 306、analysis for these policies and regulations 政策出台的市场背景分析 Real estate price in Shanghai has been going up fast since 2003.Many factors contribute to the price soar,for example,structure and time problems of real estate market supply,large scale of investment purchase and speculation.2003 年以来上海出现了商品房价格307、持续上涨，局部地区涨幅过快的情况，原因是多方面的，除了商品房供应的阶段性、结构性矛盾外，投资性购房形成规模、短期炒作增多也是一个原因。According to a survey conducted by Shanghai Statistics Bureau,Shanghai Real Estate Association and Shanghai Real Estate Transaction Center,investment purchases of real estate account for 16.6%of the whole market.But if more factors a308、re taken into consideration,for instance,some of the residential real estates that have been vacant for more than half a year are investment purchase and some transactions of the registration fee for the presale real estate properties are speculated deals,the actual investment purchase would have ac309、counted for more than 16.6%of the whole market.据上海市统计局、上海市房地产协会和上海市房地产交易中心的一份课题调查显示，目前上海投资性购房比重为 16.6%，总体水平尚在警戒线内。不过如果加上一些不确定因素，比如空置半年的商品房中也存在一定比例的投资性购房情况，以及将预售前所谓的“炒楼花”计算在内，那么投资性购房的实际比重将超出16.6%的总体水平。According to the experience abroad,when investment purchases exceed 20%of the Chapter 3 Macroeconomi310、c and Policy Overview 宏观经济政策分析 60whole market,the real estate industry will be faced with high risk.Although such ratio hasnt gone above this alert ratio in Shanghai,the risk exists in this market.Therefore,Shanghai government laid out the regulations to curb speculation in the market and control re311、al estate price for sustainable development of the real estate industry.从国外经验看，当投资性购房比重超出总购房两成时，就意味着房产市场将面临较大风险。虽然本市投资性购房总体比重尚未超出经验警戒线，但其风险还是值得关注的。为抑制过度投机造成的房产市场非理性繁荣，控制房价的过快增长，维护市场的持续健康发展，上海市政府于近期做出了一系列上述政策调整。3.3.3.3 Impact on the market of the policies and regulations 新政策的市场效应分析 A Impact on the tr312、ansactions in real estate market 对房地产市场交易的影响分析 The regulation on prohibiting transactions of uncompleted properties will not have any fundamental effect on the market.The regulation on website registration of property transactions will basically keep the market in good order by eliminating speculati313、ons aimed at raising the price.“期房限转”不会对市场整体状况产生根本性影响，而商品房销售网上登记备案制度则是从根本上规范房产交易秩序，遏制“炒号”哄抬房价，维护市场健康发展的长期制度性举措。The regulations help to make sure that the real demand of the market will be reflected by market signals.有利于表达出真实市场需求信息。Investment purchase,especially speculation will be restricted.But ext314、ent of the impact vary with different types of properties.投资性尤其是短线投机性购房需求会有明显回落，但对不同类型物业影响度差别较大。In short term,potential consumers will hold back purchase and demand in some regional market will go down temporally.But because the aggregate demand will not reduce and future supply will be more stable 315、due to the regulations,real estate price will not diminish in the long run.Chapter 3 Macroeconomic and Policy Overview 宏观经济政策分析 61 短期内客户会持币观望，导致部分区域购房暂时性下降。但由于总体需求并未减少，且房产政策将使未来供应的增长势头区域平缓，因此从长期来看，房产市场的整体价格不会出现大幅回落。Market transactions will be more clear and normal.Future supply and loan granted will316、 be more favorable to low-middle residential projects and self-owned properties.市场交易将更透明规范，房产投资门槛提高使得投资性需求尤其短期投机需求下降，未来市场价格趋于平稳，产品供应结构和贷款政策将向中低价房、自住房倾斜。B Impact on real estate developers 对房地产开发商运营的影响分析 Investment return term will be longer and profit earning ability will be weaker.有可能导致开发商回款速度和盈利能力下317、降。Developers control on sales of the properties will be weakened.开发商的销售控制能力将受到削弱。The developers that rely too much on loans will be faced with the risk of breaking of the capital chain.会使得自有资本金严重不足高度依赖外来资金搞滚动开发的开发商有出现资金链断节的危险 Market share will be concentrated to large developers and industrial conce318、ntration rate will be higher,which will be good for the long-term development of the industry.市场份额将向大的品牌开发商集中，行业集中度会大幅提高，这也有利于行业的长期规范有序发展。Developers will pay more attention to marketing capability and financing capabilities in the future.The industrial order will be more healthy.未来的房产开发商将会更加重视企业的营销能319、力和融资能力，行业集中度提高，行业发展更趋规范。Chapter 3 Macroeconomic and Policy Overview 宏观经济政策分析 623.3.3 Summary 小结小结 Governments regulations will help curb the overheat investment of real estate industry by prohibiting short term speculations and restricting unqualified developers.政府的政策将使地产的投资趋势有所减缓，特别是限制一些不具资质的小型开发商和320、短期的房产投资行为，这样将有助于房地产市场的稳定增长。The government regulations will make the available land more scarce resources resulting in the price increase.Therefore,long-term investment will still be profitable,which is favorable to the subjected project.但与此同时，政府政策的限制使得可供开发的土地资源更为稀缺，未来的供应更少，从一定程度上反而刺激了物业的升值。因此，长期投资仍具321、有相当的潜力。对本案而言，未来的前景将长期看好。Transactions of real estate will be more clear and some marketing methods will not be applicable any longer.房产的销售将变得更加透明，以往的销售手段将会有部分失效。Chapter 4 Site Analysis 地块研究 63Chapter 4 Site Analysis 第四部分第四部分 地块研究地块研究 In this chapter,we conduct a detailed analysis to the subjected sit322、e,including:在此章节，我们针对项目用地进行了详细的分析，包括：The features of the site 该用地的特点 Industrial environment analysis of the site 该地块的产业环境分析 Living facilities around the site 周边区域的环境设施研究 Current transportation system analysis 现有交通环境分析 SWOT analysis of the site 地块 SWOT 分析 Summary 小结 4.1 Introduction of the site 地块简介地323、块简介 W19 plot locates in the west district of Caohejing Industrial Park,northwest to where Hongmei Rd and Caobao Rd cross,east to Hongmei Rd,west to Gumei Rd,south to Caobao Rd and north to Tianlin Rd.漕河泾开发区 W19 地块位于徐汇区漕河泾开发区西区虹梅路和漕宝路交汇点的西北方。东临虹梅路，西临古美路，南临漕宝路，北临田林路。W19 plot is under municipal adminis324、tration of Xuhui District,in the southwest of the district and adjacent to Minhang District.On the verge of the boundary of the two districts and within the hi-tech industrial park,this area is a virgin soil for commerce development.W19 地块由徐汇区管辖,处于徐汇区西南部，与闵行区相邻。作为两区交界的中心市区边缘，加之该区域定位于高科技开发区，产业密集，使得该区325、域的商业发展相对滞后。Located in the most famous and well-developed hi-tech industrial park,W19 plot has the aggregate effect of hi-tech companies,which results from the clear industrial positioning of the park and will result in great potential for further development.Large number of companies(mostly the R&D 326、center/department)in such industries as electrics,IT,biology engineering and chemical engineering cluster in the park.坐落在上海市最著名的，发展最早、最完善的高科技开发区内，W19Chapter 4 Site Analysis 地块研究 64地块享有高科技产业集聚的产业环境优势，产业定位清晰，发展潜力很大。漕河泾开发区内拥有一批电子、信息、生物工程、化工等高科技企业，且主要以研发中心或研发基地为主。From the perspective of local consuming 327、capacity,there are no mature residents area yet around the plot,except a few new residence buildings under construction to the south of the plot.Further in northeast to the plot,there are several newly built high-rise residence buildings and a block of villas conglomerate.There are a convenient stor328、e and a branch of Shanghai Bank to the north of the plot.Other than that,very few commercial facilities exist here,given the low density of local population.从区域人口消费能力来看，地块周边尚无成熟的居民住宅区，只在地块南边隔漕宝路相望有一个在建住宅区；地块东北方有新建的高层住宅和一个连体别墅区，地块及周边人口密度低，附近缺乏商业配套设施，只在地块北部有一家快客便利店和一家上海银行支行。There is big difference in 329、the area for people traffic between day and night,workday and weekend due to the lack of residents.There are very few people in this area in non-working time.区域内白天和晚上、工作日和休息日的人流差异很大。因缺乏常住人口，非工作时间内该区域有如空城。The subjected plot cover 46.47 hectors altogether and the planned gross construction area will b330、e 488.4 thousand square meters.To the east of the plot,on the other side of Hongmei Rd lies the isolation green belt and 50 meters away to the northeast of the plot is Caohejing garden.To the west of the plot,locates the“garden-type”Technology Green Land,with 50%of the area covered by green.Within P331、lot W19,the green rate reaches to 30%,other than the four green belts with 15m,20m,10m and 10m long each on four sides of the plot.Large area of green land provides the subjected plot with outstanding environmental advantage.整个项目总用地约 46.47 公顷，规划总建筑面积约 48.84 万平方米。与W19 地块隔虹梅路相望即为漕河泾开发区东西区间的隔离绿化带，地块东北方332、 50 米处即为漕河泾公园，地块西边是绿化面积近 50%的“花园式”科技园区“科技绿洲”。W19 地块除集中绿地之外的绿化率达 30%，在其东、南、西、北侧各设有 15、20、10 和 10 米宽的防护绿带。良好的绿化景观为本项目提供了显著的环境优势。Chapter 4 Site Analysis 地块研究 65In the southeast of the plot is Hongmei hospital,whose land can not be confiscated by the subjected project.The rest of the land is all subject333、ed land.For the time being,60%of the area has been ready for construction.In the south of the plot,there remain some resident buildings and temporary small restaurants.On the east side of the plot,there are Yongda Buick 4S store and Fiat exhibition store,with whom negotiation for confiscation is under way.As expected,all the land will be ready for construction by the end of Year 2005.As to part of