宝龙地产公司财务模型表.xls

1、宝龙地产（1238.HK）(单位:百万元)20062007200820092010一、盈利预测营业收入4031,0261,5844,1364,433(+/-%)154.70%54.39%161.13%7.18%EBIT2531,0281,2834,4834,490(+/-%)306.73%24.75%249.53%0.15%净利润1236079373,0413,185(+/-%)0.00%393.12%54.48%224.44%4.75%EPS0.030.150.230.750.79PE37.657.644.941.521.45毛利率51.23%59.75%45.13%55.76%54.20%

2、EBIT Margin62.76%100.22%80.99%108.40%101.29%净利率30.55%59.15%59.18%73.53%71.86%二、NAV估值及敏感性分析资本成本假定估值结果无风险利率4.00%NPV物业开发17,09152.1%股票风险溢价6.50%投资物业15,73747.9%Beta1.20合计32,828Ke11.80%净债务18,188Kd11.00%NAV14,640T25.00%NAV/share3.62E/(D+E)42.36%股价1.14D/(D+E)57.64%总市值4,633WACC9.75%折让68.35%房价变动幅度0.00%-5.00%-1

3、0.00%-15.00%-20.00%WACC8.75%3.893.292.682.081.479.25%3.753.162.561.961.369.75%3.623.032.441.851.2610.25%3.482.902.321.741.1610.75%3.352.782.211.641.06三、净现金流及敏感性分析20112012201320142015物业开发-1,100-1,093 4,8659,4906,600投资物业195332629719829净现金流-905-761 5,49410,2097,429房价下跌幅度10.00%20112012201320142015物业开发-1

4、,563-1,791 3,7118,1115,786投资物业195332629719829净现金流-1,368-1,459 4,3408,8306,615房价变动对2012年现金之影响变动幅度0.00%-5.00%-10.00%-15.00%-20.00%净现金流-761-1,110-1,459-1,808-2,157 年初现金及等价物1,4111,4111,4111,4111,411现金盈余/缺口650301-48-397-746 2012/3/2920112012E2013E5,0557,66412,74714.05%51.60%66.33%5,2875,89611,76817.75%11

5、.52%99.61%3,5504,0098,00211.46%12.92%99.61%0.880.991.981.301.160.5836.46%40.14%73.82%104.58%76.93%92.32%70.23%52.31%62.78%20163,697862物业开发,52.1%投资物业,47.9%4,55920163,3078624,169项目地点用途拿地日期建设建设周期开工日期 竣工日期福建省泉州晋江宝龙金色家园晋江住宅2002/112003/82005/41.7泉州安海宝龙豪苑泉州住宅2004/32004/72005/30.7福州宝龙城市广场福州商业2003/92004/1120

6、06/112.0安溪宝龙城市广场安溪住宅、商业、酒店2010/12010/62012/122.4厦门湖里项目厦门住宅、商业2010/112012/62014/62.0晋江宝龙城市广场晋江住宅、商业、酒店2011/32011/52013/62.1江苏省苏州太仓宝龙城市广场一期太仓住宅、商业、酒店2005/32005/72009/124.4二期太仓住宅、商业、酒店2007/72010/52011/121.6无锡玉祈宝龙湖畔花城一期无锡住宅、商业2006/112007/102009/91.9二期无锡住宅、商业2009/62010/82012/82.0无锡宝龙城市广场一期无锡住宅、商业2006/820

7、07/52008/71.2二期无锡住宅、商业2006/82008/62010/122.5宿迁宝龙城市广场宿迁住宅、商业2007/122008/122010/101.9盐城宝龙城市广场盐城住宅、商业、酒店2008/62009/102012/42.5常州宝龙城市广场常州住宅、商业、酒店2008/62009/122013/124.0镇江宝龙城市广场镇江住宅、商业2011/102012/62014/62.0山东省青岛宝龙城市广场一期青岛住宅、商业2006/72007/42009/122.7二期青岛住宅、商业2006/72007/42010/53.1泰安宝龙城市广场一期泰安住宅、商业2006/32006

8、/112008/122.1二期泰安住宅、商业、酒店2006/72007/72009/102.3烟台海阳宝龙城市广场烟台住宅、商业2007/122010/112012/91.8青岛李沧宝龙城市广场青岛住宅、商业2008/12009/102011/122.2青岛即墨宝龙城市广场青岛住宅、商业2009/122010/62012/62.0河南省郑州宝龙城市广场郑州住宅、商业2005/32006/72008/122.4洛阳宝龙城市广场一期洛阳住宅、商业2006/22006/112009/102.9二期洛阳住宅、商业2006/22010/32012/122.8新乡宝龙城市广场新乡住宅、商业2008/120

9、09/112012/92.8天津市天津宝龙国际中心天津住宅、商业2010/62010/112013/92.8天津市北绿地天津住宅、商业2011/22012/62014/92.3宝龙欧洲公园天津住宅、商业、酒店2011/12012/52014/122.6上海市上海宝龙天地上海住宅、商业、酒店2010/62011/122014/32.2上海市曹路镇上海住宅、商业2011/22012/122015/62.5浙江省杭州宝龙城市广场杭州住宅、商业2010/112011/42013/62.2安徽省蚌埠宝龙城市广场一期蚌埠住宅、商业2005/122006/92008/122.3二期蚌埠住宅、商业2005/1

10、22006/92010/23.4重庆市重庆合川宝龙城市广场重庆住宅、商业2010/92011/122015/63.5吉林省长春宝龙中心长春住宅、商业、酒店2010/122011/122014/123.0合计建筑面积完成进度占地面积 （平方米）2010201120122013201420152016.-37,478-35,952-72,874-332,769-86,902-53,660-29,767-810,000-135,402-118,117-54,223-12,634-64,810-262,928-147,649-5,060273,848-71,960491,925-220,201-488

11、,661-221,184-798,900-270,120-556,000-231,650-274,31667,145-45,492-70,586-166,929-950,472-668,249-363,664-107,150-516,200-152,178-113,984-115,243-502,705-240,364-881,765-299,980-374,363-30,141-70,000-73,367-695,000-528,900-52,742-30,096-116,000-71,200-270,800-90,036-90,522295,666-101,791-614,861-180,

12、181-312,000-26,9191,128,584417,887#730,86105,239,384总建筑面积（平方米）容积率土地出让金（万元）楼面地价成本应占权益应占建筑面积预售日期计划总销售面积143,5443.81,500104100%143,5442003/11143,54454,2101.52,080384100%54,2102004/1054,210215,3533.011,940554100%215,3532005/9121,000332,7693.88,62025985%282,8542010/11250,00053,6601.875,70014,107100%53,660

13、2013/153,660810,0006.0104,7001,293100%810,0002011/12607,500213,5221.89,830367100%213,5222009/6160,00054,2234.3100%54,2232010/1254,223128,1052.04,750371100%128,1052009/6128,105262,9281.810,140386100%262,9282011/8262,92810,3392.011,29039780%8,2712007/110,339273,8483.880%219,0782009/6181,000491,9252.23

14、3,840688100%491,9252008/6360,000488,6612.243,790896100%488,6612010/6400,000798,9003.022,290279100%798,9002010/10721,000556,0002.423,10041510%55,6002012/5432,000638,3812.332,820514100%638,3812009/6460,00067,1451.57,0301,047100%67,1452009/667,14569,9351.022,290738100%69,9352009/60232,0101.4100%232,010

15、2009/6191,000950,4721.418,040190100%950,4722011/12950,472363,6643.445,4901,251100%363,6642010/11242,000516,2003.422,827442100%516,2002010/11485,000247,1952.212,590509100%247,1952007/12143,000372,2633.214,340164100%372,2632008/1309,000502,7052.1100%502,7052010/11440,000881,7652.927,000306100%881,7652

16、011/12881,765374,36312.490,0952,40765%243,3362011/8289,00070,0001.014,0502,007100%70,0002013/1270,000695,0001.384,8601,221100%695,0002013/12580,00052,7421.820,2003,830100%52,7422012/1244,000116,0001.660,9905,258100%116,0002013/1298,600270,8003.0220,0008,124100%270,8002011/5201,000195,5432.219,620399

17、100%195,5432009/6105,000295,6662.9100%295,6662009/6220,000614,8613.416,200263100%614,8612011/10518,000312,00011.67,591243100%312,0002012/12250,00012,726,6971,099,60311,988,517#销售面积占比累计销售面积累计销售进度20102011201220132014201520162010100%143,544143,544143,544143,544143,544143,544143,544100%100%54,21054,2105

18、4,21054,21054,21054,21054,210100%56%97,00099,220101,640104,060106,480107,690108,90080%75%0050,000125,000150,000175,000200,0000%100%00016,09826,83037,56242,9280%75%00121,500303,750425,250486,000486,0000%75%132,800136,000136,000136,000136,000136,000136,00083%100%0010,84527,11237,95643,37843,3780%100%9

19、6,07999,922102,484108,889108,889108,889108,88975%100%0052,586131,464184,050210,342210,3420%100%10,33910,33910,33910,33910,33910,33910,339100%66%108,600112,220117,650121,270124,890135,750144,80060%73%90,000126,000144,000216,000252,000288,000288,00025%82%88,000120,000180,000240,000280,000320,000360,00

20、022%90%0072,100216,300432,600576,800576,8000%78%0043,200129,600259,200345,600345,6000%72%211,600230,000253,000322,000368,000368,000368,00046%100%67,14567,14567,14567,14567,14567,14567,145100%0%000000082%166,170171,900171,900171,900171,900171,900171,90087%100%095,047285,142475,236570,283712,854760,37

21、80%67%36,30084,700108,900145,200193,600193,600205,70015%94%0145,500218,250291,000339,500388,000412,2500%58%111,540114,400117,260120,120122,980125,840128,70078%83%241,020247,200253,380259,560265,740271,920278,10078%88%066,000132,000220,000308,000330,000352,0000%100%00220,441440,883661,324705,412749,5

22、000%77%057,80072,250101,150187,850231,200231,2000%100%000021,00035,00056,0000%83%0000174,000290,000464,0000%83%00013,20022,00035,20035,2000%85%000029,58059,16078,8800%74%020,10050,250120,600160,800160,800160,8000%54%105,000105,000105,000105,000105,000105,000105,000100%74%154,000158,400162,800167,200

23、171,600176,000176,00070%84%0051,800155,400259,000388,500414,4000%80%00050,000125,000200,000200,0000%#8,674,884销售面积20112012201320142015201620102011100%100%100%100%100%100%0100%100%100%100%100%100%082%84%86%88%89%90%2,2200%20%50%60%70%80%00%0%30%50%70%80%00%20%50%70%80%80%085%85%85%85%85%85%3,2000%20%

24、50%70%80%80%078%80%85%85%85%85%3,8430%20%50%70%80%80%0100%100%100%100%100%100%062%65%67%69%75%80%3,62035%40%60%70%80%80%36,00030%45%60%70%80%90%32,0000%10%30%60%80%80%00%10%30%60%80%80%050%55%70%80%80%80%18,400100%100%100%100%100%100%0累计销售进度090%90%90%90%90%90%5,73010%30%50%60%75%80%95,04735%45%60%80

25、%80%85%48,40030%45%60%70%80%85%145,50080%82%84%86%88%90%2,86080%82%84%86%88%90%6,18015%30%50%70%75%80%66,0000%25%50%75%80%85%020%25%35%65%80%80%57,8000%0%0%30%50%80%00%0%0%30%50%80%00%0%30%50%80%80%00%0%0%30%60%80%010%25%60%80%80%80%20,100100%100%100%100%100%100%072%74%76%78%80%80%4,4000%10%30%50%75

26、%80%00%0%20%50%80%80%0551,300销售价格20122013201420152016201020112012201300000000002,4202,4202,4201,2101,21018,50018,50019,42520,39650,00075,00025,00025,00025,0004,5004,5004,7254,961016,09810,73210,7325,36618,50018,50019,42520,396121,500182,250121,50060,75005,5005,5005,7756,064000000029,50029,50028,0252

27、6,62410,84516,26710,8455,422017,50017,50018,37519,29402,5626,4050005,1505,1504,8934,64852,58678,87852,58626,29305,1505,1504,8934,64800000005,4303,6203,62010,8609,0509,1009,1009,55510,03318,00072,00036,00036,00007,0007,0007,3507,71860,00060,00040,00040,00040,0007,7507,7508,1388,54472,100144,200216,30

28、0144,20007,5007,5007,8758,26943,20086,400129,60086,40006,0006,0006,3006,6150023,00069,00046,000006,0506,0505,7485,460000006,0506,0505,7485,460销售面积0000000000006,0006,0005,7005,415190,094190,09495,047142,57147,5241,7501,7501,6631,57924,20036,30048,400012,10026,80026,80025,46024,18772,75072,75048,50048

29、,50024,2506,0506,0505,7485,46002,8602,8602,8602,8602,86014,20014,20013,49012,81606,1806,1806,1806,1806,1806,0006,0005,7005,41566,00088,00088,00022,00022,0006,0006,0005,7005,415220,441220,441220,44144,08844,0886,5006,5006,1755,866014,45028,90086,70043,350015,00015,00015,75016,5380021,00014,00021,0001

30、5,00015,00015,75016,53800174,000116,000174,0008,0008,0008,4008,8200013,2008,80013,200015,00015,00015,75016,5380029,58029,58019,72018,50018,50019,42520,396030,15070,35040,2000015,00015,00015,75016,53800000009,2009,2009,66010,1434,4004,4004,4004,40009,2009,2009,66010,143051,800103,600103,600129,50025,

31、9006,0006,0006,3006,6150050,00075,00075,00005,5005,5005,7756,064#480,248房价变化幅度0.00%-5.00%-10.00%-15.00%销售收入201420152016201020112012201300000020,39620,39620,39641,070,00047,008,50049,358,9254,9614,9614,9610236,250,000372,093,75020,39620,39620,39600328,338,8336,0646,0646,0640701,662,5001,105,118,43826

32、,62426,62426,62494,400,0000019,29419,29419,2940199,269,525313,849,5024,6484,6484,64819,792,22312,535,07429,770,8014,6484,6484,6480257,275,048366,616,94300010,03310,03310,03332,942,00051,883,65036,318,5557,7187,7187,718252,000,000132,300,000555,660,0008,5448,5448,544248,000,000488,250,000512,662,5008

33、,2698,2698,2690567,787,5001,192,353,7506,6156,6156,6150272,160,000571,536,0005,4605,4605,460111,320,000132,192,500376,748,6255,4605,4605,4600000005,4155,4155,41534,380,000001,5791,5791,579166,332,600316,031,940300,230,34324,18724,18724,1871,297,120,000616,132,000877,988,1005,4605,4605,460880,275,000

34、418,130,625397,224,09412,81612,81612,81640,612,00038,581,40036,652,3305,4155,4155,41537,080,00035,226,00033,464,7005,4155,4155,415396,000,000376,200,000476,520,0005,8665,8665,86601,361,224,7191,293,163,48316,53816,53816,538867,000,000227,587,500477,933,75016,53816,53816,5380008,8208,8208,82000016,53

35、816,53816,53800218,295,00020,39620,39620,39600016,53816,53816,538301,500,000474,862,5001,163,413,12510,14310,14310,14300010,14310,14310,14340,480,00042,504,00044,629,2006,6156,6156,6150326,340,000685,314,0006,0646,0646,06400303,187,5004,860,303,823 7,331,394,981 12,118,442,246-20.00%土地出让金支付201420152

36、01620102011201200000049,358,92524,679,46324,679,463124,031,250124,031,250124,031,25086,200,000218,892,555218,892,555109,446,278757,000,000736,745,625368,372,81301,047,000,000000209,233,001104,616,5010000244,411,296122,205,648000036,318,555108,955,66590,796,388277,830,000277,830,0000341,775,000341,77

37、5,000341,775,0001,788,530,625#0857,304,000571,536,0000231,000,000251,165,75000000000000150,115,172225,172,75775,057,5861,170,650,8000292,662,700264,816,063264,816,063132,408,03136,652,33036,652,33036,652,33033,464,70033,464,70033,464,700476,520,000119,130,000119,130,0001,293,163,483258,632,697258,63

38、2,6971,433,801,250716,900,6250900,950,000347,287,500231,525,000347,287,500140,500,0001,534,680,000#848,600,000145,530,000218,295,0000202,000,000603,321,075603,321,075402,214,050609,900,000664,807,500002,200,000,00000044,629,20044,629,2000685,314,000856,642,500171,328,500162,000,000454,781,250454,781

39、,250075,910,00014,475,130,904#2,184,060,000 5,077,000,0000建安成本2013201420152016总计649,219,490269,247,5001,431,600,00000437,106,415140,573,1280268,278,825546,717,5200698,312,400936,915,563828,953,6431,780,341,7501,493,990,000001,218,277,97389,505,100土地出让金支付0562,044,225829,476,500627,000,4001,088,040,00

40、00514,953,0380726,764,7631,260,532,7881,941,025,7380117,317,36067,750,0001,219,025,000096,124,155252,850,0000907,430,00000277,502,918728,816,69001,432,027,1430706,430,000000024,804,745,363项目建设进度建安成本支出每平方米20102011201220132014201520162010100%100%100%100%100%100%100%1,95120%50%80%100%100%100%100%5,0180

41、%0%30%60%80%100%100%1,7670%30%60%80%100%100%100%2,047100%100%100%100%100%100%100%2,59350%80%100%100%100%100%100%2,094100%100%100%100%100%100%100%2,07920%50%80%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%2,550100%100%100%100%100%100%100%1,90580%100%100%100%100%100%100%1,69670%85%100%100%100%100%100%2

42、,22820%45%70%100%100%100%100%2,6870%0%30%50%80%100%100%1,908100%100%100%100%100%100%100%1,333100%100%100%100%100%100%100%建安成本100%100%100%100%100%100%100%2,423100%100%100%100%100%100%100%87320%50%80%100%100%100%100%1,72460%80%100%100%100%100%100%2,10820%40%60%80%100%100%100%2,083100%100%100%100%100%1

43、00%100%1,952100%100%100%100%100%100%100%2,50830%50%80%100%100%100%100%2,20160%85%100%100%100%100%100%31310%30%60%100%100%100%100%9680%0%40%70%100%100%100%1,7540%0%40%70%100%100%100%1,8230%0%40%70%90%100%100%2,1800%0%0%40%60%80%100%3,3510%30%50%80%100%100%100%1,419100%100%100%100%100%100%100%2,465100

44、%100%100%100%100%100%100%2,3290%0%30%50%80%100%100%2,2640%0%30%50%70%100%100%201120122013201420152016000000194,765,847194,765,847129,843,898000080,774,25080,774,25053,849,50053,849,5000429,480,000429,480,000286,320,000286,320,0000000000042,171,93828,114,6260000000000164,015,256164,015,256109,343,504

45、000000000000000187,383,11300000124,343,046124,343,0460000445,085,438445,085,438534,102,5250000448,197,000298,798,000448,197,000298,798,0000000000000000建安成本支出000000000000248,842,950248,842,950165,895,300000125,400,080125,400,0800000217,608,000217,608,000217,608,000217,608,00000000000000000252,106,558

46、378,159,836252,106,558000485,256,434291,153,861000023,463,47235,195,20846,926,944000027,100,00020,325,00020,325,000000487,610,000365,707,500365,707,50000038,449,66228,837,24719,224,8319,612,416000101,140,00050,570,00050,570,00050,570,000272,229,000181,486,000272,229,000181,486,000000000000000000429,

47、608,143286,405,429429,608,143286,405,42900211,929,000141,286,000141,286,000211,929,0000#911,164,34450,570,000总开发成本毛利率总计每平方米2010201120122013201420152016275,500,0001,91994,800,0001,749758,200,0003,52181%81%82%83%83%83%83%865,199,4002,60045%48%48%48%48%1,207,350,00022,500-10%-10%-10%-10%2,916,000,0003,

48、60038%41%41%41%41%629,889,9002,95089%89%89%89%89%165,380,1503,05083%84%84%84%84%371,504,5002,90041%38%38%38%38%762,491,2002,90041%38%38%38%38%30,500,0502,950821,544,0003,00069%70%70%70%70%1,500,371,2503,05059%60%60%60%60%1,490,416,0503,05063%64%64%64%64%2,356,755,0002,95063%64%64%64%64%2,029,400,000

49、3,65042%45%45%45%45%1,819,385,8502,85050%48%48%48%48%188,006,0002,80051%49%49%49%49%195,818,0002,800#661,228,5002,85050%47%47%47%47%1,188,090,0001,25025%21%21%21%21%1,272,824,0003,50086%86%86%86%86%1,548,600,0003,00048%45%45%45%45%753,944,7503,05077%76%76%76%76%1,023,723,2502,75052%49%49%49%49%1,482

50、,979,7502,95048%46%46%46%46%2,601,206,7502,95052%50%50%50%50%1,197,961,6003,20080%81%81%81%81%245,000,0003,50078%79%79%79%79%2,432,500,0003,50058%60%60%60%60%350,734,3006,65058%60%60%60%60%1,015,000,0008,75055%57%57%57%57%3,655,800,00013,50014%18%18%18%18%557,297,5502,85070%72%72%72%72%857,431,4002,

51、90070%71%71%71%71%1,875,326,0503,05052%54%54%54%54%920,400,0002,95049%51%51%51%51%#总开发成本支出201020112012201320142015259,559,820 259,559,820 173,039,880000362,205,000 362,205,000 241,470,000 241,470,000874,800,000 874,800,000 583,200,000 583,200,00000000049,614,04533,076,03000000000228,747,360 228,747,

52、360 152,498,2400000000300,074,2500000223,562,408 223,562,408000589,188,750 589,188,750 707,026,500000608,820,000 405,880,000 608,820,000 405,880,00000000000000000000000356,427,000 356,427,000 237,618,00000254,564,800 254,564,800000309,720,000 309,720,000 309,720,000 309,720,00000000000000296,595,950

53、 444,893,925 296,595,95000650,301,688 390,181,013000239,592,320 359,388,480 479,184,64000098,000,00073,500,00073,500,00000973,000,000 729,750,000 729,750,00000140,293,720 105,220,29070,146,86035,073,43000406,000,000 203,000,000 203,000,000#731,160,000#731,160,000000000000000562,597,815 375,065,210 5

54、62,597,815 375,065,2100276,120,000 184,080,000 184,080,000 276,120,000#土地增值税支出2016201020112012201320142015410,700470,085493,589493,589246,795002,362,5003,720,9381,240,3131,240,3130003,283,3882,188,9262,188,926007,016,62511,051,1847,367,4563,683,7280944,0000000001,992,6953,138,4952,092,3301,046,16501

55、97,922125,351297,70800002,572,7503,666,1692,444,1131,222,056000000329,420518,837363,186363,1861,089,55702,520,0001,323,0005,556,6002,778,3002,778,30002,480,0004,882,5005,126,6253,417,7503,417,750005,677,87511,923,53817,885,30611,923,538002,721,6005,715,3608,573,0405,715,36001,113,2001,321,9253,767,4

56、862,511,65800000000000000343,800000001,663,3263,160,3193,002,3031,501,1522,251,728012,971,2006,161,3208,779,88111,706,508008,802,7504,181,3063,972,2412,648,1612,648,1610406,120385,814366,523366,523366,5230370,800352,260334,647334,647334,64703,960,0003,762,0004,765,2004,765,2001,191,3000013,612,24712

57、,931,63512,931,6352,586,32708,670,0002,275,8754,779,33814,338,0137,169,00600003,472,8752,315,250000015,346,80010,231,2000002,182,9501,455,3002,182,950203,000,0000006,033,2116,033,21103,015,0004,748,62511,634,1316,648,07500000000404,800425,040446,292446,292446,292003,263,4006,853,1406,853,1408,566,42

58、50003,031,8754,547,8134,547,813203,000,00048,603,03873,313,950121,184,422144,751,30985,423,318所得税税支出2016201020112012201320142015246,7951,540,1251,762,8191,850,9601,850,960925,4801,240,31308,859,37513,953,5164,651,1724,651,1721,094,4630012,312,7068,208,4718,208,4710026,312,344 41,441,941 27,627,961 1

59、3,813,98003,540,0000000007,472,60711,769,3567,846,2383,923,1190742,208470,0651,116,40500009,647,81413,748,1359,165,4244,582,712000000907,9641,235,3251,945,6371,361,9461,361,9464,085,83709,450,0004,961,25020,837,250 10,418,625 10,418,6253,417,7509,300,00018,309,375 19,224,844 12,816,563 12,816,563002

60、1,292,031 44,713,266 67,069,898 44,713,2660010,206,000 21,432,600 32,148,900 21,432,60004,174,5004,957,21914,128,0739,418,716000000000000001,289,2500000750,5766,237,47311,851,198 11,258,6385,629,3198,443,9782,926,62748,642,00023,104,950 32,924,554 43,899,40501,324,08033,010,31315,679,898 14,895,9049

61、,930,6029,930,602366,5231,522,9501,446,8031,374,4621,374,4621,374,462334,6471,390,5001,320,9751,254,9261,254,9261,254,9261,191,30014,850,00014,107,500 17,869,500 17,869,5004,467,3752,586,327051,045,927 48,493,631 48,493,6319,698,726032,512,5008,534,53117,922,516 53,767,547 26,883,7733,472,87500013,0

62、23,2818,682,18815,346,80000057,550,500 38,367,0000008,186,0635,457,3758,186,0634,022,14100022,624,540 22,624,540011,306,25017,807,344 43,627,992 24,930,281000000001,518,0001,593,9001,673,5951,673,5951,673,5951,713,285012,237,750 25,699,275 25,699,275 32,124,09400011,369,531 17,054,297 17,054,29740,9

63、42,465#净现金流201620102011201220132014925,48039,119,17544,775,59647,014,37647,014,3764,651,172(259,559,820)(34,531,695)181,379,417118,139,7664,104,2350(362,205,000)(49,462,262)(32,974,841)0(874,800,000)(206,466,469)469,425,312118,550,208089,916,0000000(49,614,045)156,728,193298,941,651199,294,434018,85

64、2,09211,939,65828,356,68800(228,747,360)16,307,123196,704,399232,801,759000003,404,86531,377,25549,419,17734,593,42434,593,4240(60,044,250)126,015,750529,266,150264,633,07512,816,56312,657,593241,495,718488,311,031325,540,6880(589,188,750)(48,371,156)428,690,4471,703,575,42000(349,587,600)138,508,04

65、0207,762,0600106,032,300125,913,356358,853,065239,235,3770000000000032,746,9500002,814,659(197,995,199)(55,406,577)48,351,402142,984,70110,974,851980,942,000332,300,930836,283,6651,115,044,8874,965,301528,741,93888,549,42068,635,949(57,482,700)1,374,46238,682,93036,748,78434,911,34434,911,3441,254,9

66、2635,318,70033,552,76531,875,12731,875,1274,467,37580,594,050(86,563,425)157,289,350453,885,3009,698,726(650,301,688)906,385,532#1,231,738,2170586,225,180(142,611,386)(23,952,743)1,365,695,69113,023,2810(98,000,000)(73,500,000)257,291,34457,550,5000(973,000,000)#732,032,70000(140,293,720)102,705,698

67、68,470,46515,083,02700#371,663,3240(809,561,250)(278,853,469)11,411,002(97,930,856)00000038,557,20040,485,06042,509,31342,509,3136,424,8190(251,758,965)277,696,37590,163,77000(276,120,000)104,706,094249,099,141#9,490,117,511NPV201520162011201223,507,18823,507,188168,983,815146,347,138118,139,766118,

68、139,76695,220,476364,067,999(32,974,841)104,247,579(321,888,356)(353,284,998)350,875,1040(311,371,914)533,057,20600000081,925,113099,647,2170510,933,474610,383,416000048,536,92534,419,072116,400,8800187,429,871434,458,937000000103,780,27186,483,559234,263,932225,736,527264,633,0750798,772,757936,728

69、,436325,540,688325,540,6881,196,367,7181,300,402,537#01,634,439,6892,383,049,916138,508,040044,704,77349,065,228000000637,437,911593,580,61400000000000029,836,7100214,477,05171,492,35084,290,811290,507,6440278,761,2222,730,102,6422,015,451,896252,237,300126,118,650798,099,615347,203,4490034,911,3443

70、4,911,344158,112,679134,851,8880031,875,12731,875,127144,361,719123,123,905113,471,325113,471,325569,509,192544,464,452246,347,643246,347,6432,236,084,2593,104,491,18200682,847,84501,767,573,0501,353,755,030220,527,563330,791,344368,087,501403,990,357974,521,800#592,995,160650,835,26500172,852,55801

71、16,942,497128,348,941371,663,324180,108,883285,460,234313,303,7160000#(318,671,651)0000000042,509,3130156,880,693133,625,46600440,886,771163,190,396433,384,090475,655,90500157,059,1410120,263,654131,994,040#项目地点总建筑面积（平方米）应占权益预售日期计划总销售面积销售面积占比福建省泉州晋江宝龙金色家园晋江143,544100%2003/11143,544100%泉州安海宝龙豪苑泉州54,2

72、10100%2004/1054,210100%福州宝龙城市广场福州215,353100%2005/9121,00056%安溪宝龙城市广场安溪332,76985%2010/11250,00075%厦门湖里项目厦门53,660100%2013/153,660100%晋江宝龙城市广场晋江810,000100%2011/12607,50075%江苏省苏州太仓宝龙城市广场一期太仓213,522100%2009/6160,00075%二期太仓54,223100%2010/1254,223100%无锡玉祈宝龙湖畔花城一期无锡128,105100%2009/6128,105100%二期无锡262,928100

73、%2011/8262,928100%无锡宝龙城市广场一期无锡10,33980%2007/110,339100%二期无锡273,84880%2009/6181,00066%宿迁宝龙城市广场宿迁491,925100%2008/6360,00073%盐城宝龙城市广场盐城488,661100%2010/6400,00082%常州宝龙城市广场常州798,900100%2010/10721,00090%镇江宝龙城市广场镇江556,00010%2012/5432,00078%山东省青岛宝龙城市广场一期青岛638,381100%2009/6460,00072%二期青岛67,145100%2009/667,14

74、5100%泰安宝龙城市广场一期泰安69,935100%2009/600%二期泰安232,010100%2009/6191,00082%烟台海阳宝龙城市广场烟台950,472100%2011/12950,472100%青岛李沧宝龙城市广场青岛363,664100%2010/11242,00067%青岛即墨宝龙城市广场青岛516,200100%2010/11485,00094%河南省郑州宝龙城市广场郑州247,195100%2007/12143,00058%洛阳宝龙城市广场一期洛阳372,263100%2008/1309,00083%二期洛阳502,705100%2010/11440,00088%

75、新乡宝龙城市广场新乡881,765100%2011/12881,765100%天津市天津宝龙国际中心天津374,36365%2011/8289,00077%天津市北绿地天津70,000100%2013/1270,000100%宝龙欧洲公园天津695,000100%2013/12580,00083%上海市上海宝龙天地上海52,742100%2012/1244,00083%上海市曹路镇上海116,000100%2013/1298,60085%浙江省杭州宝龙城市广场杭州270,800100%2011/5201,00074%安徽省蚌埠宝龙城市广场一期蚌埠195,543100%2009/6105,000

76、54%二期蚌埠295,666100%2009/6220,00074%重庆市重庆合川宝龙城市广场重庆614,861100%2011/10518,00084%吉林省长春宝龙中心长春312,000100%2012/12250,00080%合计12,726,69735#10,484,49130计划出租面积出租率租金（每月每平米）201020112012201320142015201620102011201220130094,35380%80%85%90%90%90%90%6568727582,76980%80%85%90%90%90%90%242526280202,5000%0%0%60%70%80%

77、90%2829313253,52280%80%85%85%90%90%90%24252628000092,8480%0%50%60%70%80%80%28293132131,92570%70%75%75%80%85%85%2425262888,6610%0%60%70%80%85%85%2425262877,9000%0%60%70%80%85%85%24252628124,0000%0%0%60%70%80%85%24252628178,3810%0%0%60%70%80%85%22232425069,9350%0%60%85%90%90%90%2021222341,0100%0%60%70

78、%85%90%90%202122230121,6640%0%0%60%85%85%85%2021222331,2000%0%0%60%80%90%90%20212223104,19585%85%90%90%90%90%90%4850535663,26390%90%90%90%90%90%90%2627293062,7050%0%60%70%85%85%85%20212223085,3630%0%0%60%70%85%85%505355580115,0000%0%0%0%0%60%85%303233358,7420%0%0%0%60%75%85%10811311912517,4000%0%0%0

79、%0%70%85%15616417218169,8000%0%0%60%75%85%85%12012613213990,5430%0%75%85%85%85%85%2425262875,6660%0%75%85%85%85%85%2425262896,8610%0%0%60%75%85%85%2021222362,0000%0%0%0%60%75%85%181920212,242,2065510161922231,0111,0621,1151,170实收租金2014201520162010201120122013201475757558,876,27261,820,08668,968,0337

80、6,676,22576,676,22528282819,069,97820,023,47622,338,69124,835,36824,835,36832323200047,258,88355,135,364000000000028282812,331,46912,948,04214,445,16015,167,41816,059,6190000000000000000000000000000003232320017,197,30721,668,60625,280,04128282826,596,08027,925,88431,416,62032,987,45035,186,614282828

81、0016,890,98420,691,45623,647,3782828280014,840,88518,180,08420,777,23928282800024,804,66228,938,773000000000025252500032,709,33238,160,88700000000002323230011,102,88116,515,53517,487,037232323006,510,7487,975,6669,684,73700000租金（每月每平米）23232300020,281,14528,731,6232323230005,200,9786,934,637000005656

82、5651,013,87253,564,56659,551,19462,528,75362,528,7530000030303017,764,25018,652,46319,585,08620,564,34020,564,340232323009,955,04612,194,93114,808,131000000000058585800035,574,60341,503,70400000353535000000000012512512500007,869,279181181181000000000013913913900069,813,12287,266,40300000000002828280

83、021,561,91025,658,67325,658,6732828280018,019,10121,442,73021,442,7300000023232300016,146,53520,183,1690000021212100009,301,7481,1701,1701,170#332,383,644628,876,497718,662,471租金回报率2015201620102011201220132014201576,676,22576,676,2254.2%4.4%4.4%4.4%4.4%4.4%24,835,36824,835,3686.7%6.7%6.7%6.7%63,011,

84、84470,888,3256.4%6.4%6.4%6.4%000016,059,61916,059,6191.0%1.0%1.1%1.3%1.3%1.3%00000000000028,891,47528,891,4753.7%3.9%3.9%3.9%3.9%3.9%37,385,77737,385,7774.1%4.3%4.3%4.3%4.3%4.3%25,125,33925,125,3393.7%3.9%3.9%3.9%3.9%3.9%22,075,81622,075,8163.8%4.0%4.0%4.0%4.0%4.0%33,072,88335,139,9384.8%5.0%5.0%5.0

85、%5.0%5.0%000043,612,44246,338,2204.4%4.6%5.1%5.6%5.6%5.6%000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0017,487,03717,487,03710,254,42710,254,4274.0%4.2%4.6%5.1%5.1%5.1%000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%28,731,62328,731,6230.9%0.9%1.0%1.1%1.1%1.1%7,801,4667,801,4664.0%4.2%4.6%5.1%5.1%5.1%0062,528,75362,528,7534.1%4.3%4.7%5.2%5

86、.2%5.2%0020,564,34020,564,3405.2%5.5%6.0%6.7%6.7%6.7%14,808,13114,808,1314.0%4.2%4.6%5.1%5.1%5.1%000050,397,35550,397,3554.0%4.2%4.2%4.2%4.2%4.2%000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%28,755,40540,736,8244.5%4.7%4.7%4.7%4.7%4.7%009,836,59911,148,1458.6%9.1%9.1%9.1%9.1%9.1%26,394,96132,051,02410.1%10.6%10.6%10.6%

87、10.6%10.6%0098,901,92398,901,9239.6%10.1%10.1%10.1%10.1%10.1%000025,658,67325,658,6733.1%3.3%3.3%3.3%3.3%3.3%21,442,73021,442,7303.1%3.3%3.3%3.3%3.3%3.3%0022,874,25822,874,2584.0%4.2%4.2%4.2%4.2%4.2%0011,627,18613,177,4773.9%4.1%4.1%4.1%4.1%4.1%828,811,657861,980,290NPV2016201120124.4%1,403,981,5901

88、,479,104,3476.7%334,552,952347,161,408006.4%847,784,479930,476,45900001.3%870,876,421942,872,7210000000000003.9%550,690,829604,404,6164.3%688,993,219728,270,9883.9%480,447,161527,309,4574.0%410,674,372450,731,1055.0%517,371,120567,834,93900005.6%624,776,073685,716,0550.0%000054,745,41960,085,2285.1%

89、155,913,840171,121,5070.0%001.1%1,640,211,6261,800,196,0915.1%114,346,964125,500,243005.2%1,018,279,8021,064,037,145006.7%281,251,474290,031,9755.1%226,689,320248,800,35000004.2%869,446,332954,251,1860.0%004.7%582,721,355639,559,365009.1%95,139,087104,418,85010.6%224,327,481246,208,1400010.1%847,721

90、,214930,407,02300003.3%575,944,554632,121,5623.3%481,311,870528,258,508004.2%395,549,984434,131,500004.1%221,906,305243,550,80514,515,654,844#估值结果 资本成本假定估值结果(单位：百万元人民币）无风险利率4.00%NPV物业开发17,091股票风险溢价6.50%投资物业15,737Beta1.20合计32,828Ke11.80%净债务18,188Kd11.00%NAV14,640T25.00%NAV/share3.62E/(D+E)42.36%股价1.1

91、4D/(D+E)57.64%总市值4,633WACC9.75%折让68.35%52.1%47.9%盈利预测(单位:百万元)200620072008营业收入40310261584增长率（YOY)154.70%54.39%营业成本196413869营业成本/营业收入48.77%40.25%54.87%营业毛利206613715毛利率51.23%59.75%45.13%投資物業公允價值收益121527818销售费用225861销售费用/营业收入5.39%5.65%3.85%管理费用5351141管理费用/营业收入13.15%4.96%8.90%EBIT25310281283EBIT/销售收入62.7

92、6%100.22%80.99%增长率(YOY)306.73%24.75%所得税130421345实际税率51.33%40.99%26.92%税后利润123607937净利率30.55%59.15%59.18%增长率393.12%54.48%发行在外股份数量(百万股）404840484048EPS0.030.150.23增长率PE37.657.644.94应付现金股利0330每股现金股利0.000.010.00现金股利分配率0.00%5.42%0.00%2009201020112012E2013E413644335055766412747161.13%7.18%14.05%51.60%66.33

93、%1829203032124587333844.24%45.80%63.54%59.86%26.18%2306240218433076941055.76%54.20%36.46%40.14%73.82%2,4262,5723,6193,8003,990661192082914841.60%2.68%4.11%3.80%3.80%17839550469011474.31%8.92%9.96%9.00%9.00%448344905287589611768108.40%101.29%104.58%76.93%92.32%249.53%0.15%17.75%11.52%99.61%1442130517

94、361887376632.17%29.05%32.84%32.00%32.00%3041318535504009800273.53%71.86%70.23%52.31%62.78%224.44%4.75%11.46%12.92%99.61%404840484048404840480.750.790.880.991.98224.44%4.75%11.46%12.92%99.61%1.521.451.301.160.582452442433016000.060.060.060.070.158.06%8.26%7.12%7.50%7.50%主要假设1、房价同比增长率201020112012E2013

95、E住宅20.00%0.00%-5.00%-5.00%商业15.00%5.00%5.00%5.00%2、租金同比增长率201020112012E2013E住宅10.00%5.00%5.00%5.00%商业10.00%5.00%5.00%5.00%3、经营活动201020112012E2013E管理费用/营业收入8.92%9.50%9.00%9.00%销售费用/销售收入2.68%3.96%3.80%3.80%所得税税率22.00%24.00%25.00%25.00%实际税率29.05%32.84%32.00%32.00%股利分配比率8.26%7.12%7.50%7.50%4、贴现率Beta1.20

96、无风险利率4.00%风险溢价6.50%公司股价1.14Kd11.00%T25.00%5、总股本201020112012E2013E总股本#送股乘数1发行融资额0发行股本价格0发行股数0 可转债转股：转股价0转股数0债转股减少02014E2015E2016E0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%2014E2015E2016E0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%2014E2015E2016E9.00%9.00%9.00%3.80%3.80%3.80%25.00%25.00%25.00%32.00%32.00%32.00%7.50%7.50%7.50%2

97、014E2015E2016E#111000000000000000000一、房价变动对净现金流之影响单位：百万元1、下跌幅度0.00%20112012201320142015物业开发-1,100-1,093 4,8659,4906,600投资物业195332629719829净现金流-905-761 5,49410,2097,4292、下跌幅度5.00%20112012201320142015物业开发-1,332-1,442 4,2888,8016,193投资物业195332629719829净现金流-1,137-1,110 4,9179,5197,0223、下跌幅度10.00%2011201

98、2201320142015物业开发-1,563-1,791 3,7118,1115,786投资物业195332629719829净现金流-1,368-1,459 4,3408,8306,6153、下跌幅度15.00%20112012201320142015物业开发-1,794-2,141 3,1347,4225,379投资物业195332629719829净现金流-1,600-1,808 3,7638,1416,2084、下跌幅度20.00%20112012201320142015物业开发-2,026-2,490 2,5576,7334,973投资物业195332629719829净现金流-1

99、,831-2,157 3,1867,4515,801二、房价变动对2012年现金之影响单位：百万元变动幅度0.00%-5.00%-10.00%-15.00%-20.00%净现金流-761-1,110-1,459-1,808-2,157 年初现金及等价物1,4111,4111,4111,4111,411现金盈余/缺口650301-48-397-746 三、房价与WACC变动对NAV之影响房价变动幅度0.00%-5.00%-10.00%-15.00%-20.00%WACC8.75%3.893.292.682.081.479.25%3.753.162.561.961.369.75%3.623.032

100、.441.851.2610.25%3.482.902.321.741.1610.75%3.352.782.211.641.0620163,6978624,55920163,5028624,36420163,3078624,16920163,1128623,97420162,9178623,7792006-12-312007-12-31资产负债表（单位：百万元）流动资产：现金及短期投资 48.531,162.57 其中：现金及现金等价物 48.531,162.57 短期投资-应收预付款项合计 923.61650.22 其中：应收贸易帐款-应收关联方款项-其他应收预付款 923.61650.22

101、发展中及待售物业 243.22829.99 存货-其他流动资产合计 843.38721.10流动资产合计 2,058.743,363.88非流动资产：物业，厂房与设备 24.06125.81 土地使用权 39.9238.86 商誉-无形资产-应占联营公司权益-应占合营公司权益-应占共同控制实体权益-投资物业 1,246.242,704.42 金融资产投资-递延所得税借项 23.1440.50 其他长期资产合计-非流动资产合计 1,333.352,909.59总资产 3,392.096,273.47流动负债：应付预收款项合计 1,327.79891.87 其中:应付贸易帐款 1,327.7989

102、1.87 应付关联方款项-其他应付款及应计费用-预收款项-短期计息负债合计 30.0042.44 其中:短期银行贷款 30.0042.44 融资租赁款-一年内到期非流动负债-其他流动负债 1,151.033,372.48流动负债合计 2,508.824,306.79非流动负债：长期计息债务合计 99.00717.85 其中:长期借款 99.00717.85 应付债券-应付融资租赁款-其他长期贷款-计息债务合计 129.00760.29长期应付款项-递延所得税债项 39.97163.54其他非流动负债-非流动负债合计 138.97881.38负债合计 2,647.795,188.17所有者权益(

103、或股东权益)：股本-0.00储备 719.491,049.65 其中：股本溢价-留存盈余 137.23707.67 其他储备 582.26341.98归属于母公司的权益合计 719.491,049.66少数股东权益 24.8135.65所有者权益合计 744.301,085.30权益与负债合计 3,392.096,273.47损益表（单位：百万元）总收入402.761,025.84 其中：销售收入402.761,025.84营业总支出271.10521.69 其中：销售成本196.43412.90 毛利206.33612.94 销售费用21.7057.94 管理费用/人工成本52.9650.8

104、5 折旧与摊销-利息支出_营运-研发费用-其他运营费用总额-其他收益(损失)_营运121.12527.38营运溢利252.781,031.52融资成本-3.40其他收益(损失)_非营运-税前利润252.781,028.12税项129.74421.38税后利润_持续经营业务123.04606.74少数股权损益5.683.40终止或非持续业务溢利-归属母公司净利润117.36603.34基本每股收益(元)-稀释每股收益(元)-股息-32.90每股股息(元)-现金流量表（单位：百万元）税前利润-折旧与摊销-其他非现金调整项目-未计算营运资金变动之经营现金流量-营运资本变动-营运产生现金557.271

105、,172.93已付税项57.04102.97其他调整项-9.35-22.57经营活动产生现金净流量490.881,047.39资本支出18.5286.06其他投资现金流合计-1,065.71-1,747.81投资活动所得现金-1,084.23-1,833.86现金分红总额-发行(偿还）股票，债务:净值608.151,915.33其他融资现金流合计-7.95融资活动中所得现金608.151,907.38现金及现金等价物增加净额14.801,120.91年初现金及现金等价物净额33.7348.53汇率影响-6.87影响现金的其他项目-年末现金及现金等价物净额48.531,162.572008-12

106、-312009-12-312010-12-312011/12/31205.301,775.742,761.51205.301,764.232,739.911,411.18-11.5221.601,528.211,800.204,400.06-1,528.211,800.204,400.061,577.231,210.071,924.72-1,565.332,814.674,203.794,876.077,600.6813,290.07226.15323.92904.1838.4961.34108.49-3,391.896,507.7910,088.06-38.4130.6075.51-3,69

107、4.946,923.6411,176.248,571.0214,524.3224,466.3134,004.391,542.62901.831,536.011,542.62901.831,536.01-1,397.541,145.721,954.28563.731,145.721,954.28-833.81-2,672.422,259.343,959.995,612.584,306.887,450.28547.281,026.204,267.09547.281,026.204,267.09-1,944.822,171.926,221.37-367.69961.681,602.36-914.97

108、1,987.885,869.456,527.546,294.7613,319.7319,599.0626.663,172.403,107.461,982.315,030.237,771.46-1,640.334,437.757,149.29341.98592.48622.172,008.978,202.6310,878.9134.5026.93267.662,043.478,229.5611,146.5814,405.338,571.0214,524.3224,466.3134,004.391,583.774,135.744,432.665,254.031,583.774,135.744,43

109、2.665,254.031,070.902,077.512,544.643,673.02869.061,829.482,030.302,951.05714.712,306.262,402.362,302.9860.9366.22118.93207.90140.92178.25395.41503.62-3.55-10.45818.252,425.852,571.813,619.311,331.124,484.094,459.835,200.3233.660.85-30.13-86.56-14.83-1,282.634,483.244,489.955,286.88345.311,442.171,3

110、04.511,736.42937.323,041.073,185.443,550.464.66-1.60229.80135.23-932.663,042.672,955.653,415.230.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00-245.25244.11243.07-435.671,547.071,543.78134.5275.90230.20-169.89-132.44-176.63131.261,338.741,136.95108.36105.46494.12-1,741.85-1,688.50-3,473.20-1,850.21-1,793.97-3,967.3

111、2-245.25777.282,779.794,091.23-4.59-764.52-34.55772.692,015.263,811.44-946.261,560.03981.071,162.57205.301,764.23-11.01-1.11-5.39-205.301,764.232,739.91房地产开发投资累计完成额房地产开发投资累计完成额同比住宅开发投资累计完成额住宅开发投资完成额累计同比经济适用住房投资累计额经济适用住房投资累计同比(亿元）（%）(亿元）（%）(亿元）（%）1998-0279.211998-03190.151998-04307.401998-05443.78199

112、8-06619.621998-07775.241998-08950.981998-091,134.941998-101,327.681998-111,519.431998-122,117.941999-02184.4029.00112.5042.001999-03444.0628.30291.4744.701999-04691.1824.40455.2138.101999-05973.2024.70638.4737.601999-061,325.5024.60874.1038.101999-071,623.3624.801,078.7838.601999-081,940.8522.901,29

113、2.7135.301999-092,287.8421.601,522.9633.301999-102,634.4520.201,758.6831.701999-113,016.5420.502,016.0631.801999-124,010.1711.002,637.6324.502000-02246.0419.80165.3933.002000-03534.5020.40358.7523.102000-04834.8120.80567.1224.602000-051,175.8920.80808.2326.602000-061,622.6022.401,125.5428.802000-072

114、,014.5524.101,397.4229.502000-082,413.3824.301,668.1629.002000-092,860.6025.001,976.3129.802000-103,282.6524.602,272.1729.202000-113,744.2824.102,605.4529.202000-124,901.7319.503,318.7425.802001-02319.9323.00216.7331.002001-03677.2022.90461.3228.602001-041,057.2522.80721.9527.302001-051,534.8526.501

115、,056.7530.702001-062,122.5028.201,457.9829.502001-072,651.7531.601,820.0930.202001-083,187.9332.102,196.5431.702001-093,758.8231.402,604.0131.802001-104,305.7431.202,997.9231.902001-114,857.1629.703,400.1430.502001-126,245.4825.304,278.7428.902002-02416.5830.20287.0832.5016.842002-03922.3536.20631.1

116、436.8048.972002-041,467.4738.801,027.8242.4081.092002-052,097.8736.701,488.3640.80126.952002-062,821.2832.901,999.7137.20184.932002-073,466.7830.702,464.9635.40241.362002-084,143.7030.002,948.0534.20290.782002-094,862.6929.403,458.2232.80344.082002-105,587.9529.803,971.7532.50389.232002-116,228.0728

117、.204,405.5729.60438.402002-127,736.4221.905,267.3523.10580.682003-02598.2637.00411.0335.4029.9069.602003-031,285.1034.90882.3635.7066.4332.202003-041,980.3433.501,359.0230.80106.4931.402003-052,801.3732.901,902.9427.10158.9225.002003-063,816.8134.002,586.7928.00227.6622.602003-074,697.8934.103,199.7

118、228.30274.0313.002003-085,566.4833.103,814.2728.20332.3613.802003-096,495.0132.804,453.1028.00383.2311.302003-107,367.0831.305,036.0026.10443.3913.902003-118,284.8132.505,646.7827.50501.3914.302003-1210,106.1229.706,782.4128.60616.868.002004-02944.8157.10633.4953.2033.4611.902004-031,820.4041.101,20

119、3.0235.9070.025.402004-042,686.2334.601,814.6332.20117.6710.502004-053,703.2132.002,521.0132.20173.399.102004-064,923.6928.703,362.3529.70236.984.202004-076,055.2628.604,110.9328.10292.45-0.502004-087,184.5928.804,876.9427.70359.344.402004-098,356.7728.305,683.9227.40419.426.102004-109,526.4428.906,

120、460.9627.90472.215.002004-1110,738.3229.207,283.6628.70519.353.602004-1213,158.2528.108,836.9528.70606.39-2.502005-021,199.6527.00802.8726.7029.64-11.402005-032,323.5726.701,532.8626.6060.36-13.802005-043,405.3225.902,256.7924.0096.63-17.902005-054,644.1524.303,103.9321.80144.58-16.702005-066,193.06

121、23.504,147.1221.30204.32-14.602005-077,586.9923.505,089.0322.20260.00-12.102005-088,920.1222.306,009.8021.50314.60-13.802005-0910,377.5722.207,009.8621.50374.33-12.002005-1011,769.3521.607,998.8221.90426.16-11.102005-1113,239.9822.208,993.1522.30476.80-8.802005-1215,759.3019.8010,768.1921.90565.21-6

122、.802006-021,436.3919.70983.7322.5027.80-6.202006-032,792.6820.201,887.5423.1061.902.602006-044,130.9121.302,835.3325.60100.554.102006-055,657.6821.803,892.2825.40148.913.002006-067,694.5924.205,317.9228.20216.866.102006-079,411.4724.006,575.4129.20274.905.702006-0811,063.0724.007,761.9329.20348.5810

123、.802006-0912,902.4024.309,076.3529.50407.608.902006-1014,610.5524.1010,268.4828.40467.869.802006-1116,415.7324.0011,549.5328.40526.3910.402006-1219,382.4621.8013,611.6225.30689.1332.702007-021,785.6624.301,277.4329.9043.7557.402007-033,543.7826.902,461.9730.4087.6241.602007-045,264.6127.403,657.9329

124、.00149.2848.502007-057,214.3627.505,042.2629.50207.5839.402007-069,887.2328.506,954.8730.80291.5634.402007-0712,134.7228.908,593.7130.70366.4933.302007-0814,276.7529.0010,160.6930.90449.0328.802007-0916,814.0530.3012,049.9932.80531.8130.502007-1019,192.2131.4013,725.7833.70618.4632.202007-1121,631.8

125、831.8015,439.8933.70693.3831.702007-1225,279.6530.2018,010.2532.10833.8019.702008-022,373.7232.901,669.4530.7049.7613.702008-034,687.7532.303,316.4834.70119.7936.702008-046,952.0832.104,944.3835.20186.2024.702008-059,519.2831.906,806.2635.00256.0623.402008-0613,195.6733.509,497.0936.60382.4231.20200

126、8-0715,883.5430.9011,486.1733.70458.7225.202008-0818,429.9729.1013,384.8031.70546.6721.702008-0921,277.6926.5015,508.3128.70637.5519.902008-1023,917.7124.6017,482.3527.40729.1217.902008-1126,545.7322.7019,332.6625.20819.3718.202008-1230,579.8220.9022,081.2622.60982.6419.702009-022,398.151.001,682.35

127、0.8061.6723.902009-034,880.294.103,421.743.20126.805.802009-047,289.984.905,114.093.40203.559.302009-0510,067.225.807,104.594.40294.6815.102009-0614,295.418.3010,187.867.30440.5615.202009-0717,392.309.5012,426.228.20524.4914.302009-0820,740.9412.5014,844.6810.90632.9815.802009-0924,560.0015.4017,578

128、.4513.30761.5819.502009-1027,886.5816.6019,948.5314.10869.7819.302009-1131,270.9217.8022,368.9915.70976.2019.102009-1236,231.7116.1025,618.7414.201,138.5917.302010-023,143.6431.102,233.4232.8064.684.902010-036,594.4535.104,551.8333.00134.275.902010-049,932.0536.206,854.4834.00207.862.102010-0513,917

129、.4138.209,643.1835.70301.732.402010-0619,747.1238.1013,692.2934.40433.19-1.702010-0723,864.7737.2016,708.8034.50531.271.302010-0828,355.0536.7019,876.1833.90619.71-2.102010-0933,511.2536.4023,512.0533.80716.75-5.902010-1038,069.5236.5026,682.9233.80829.19-4.702010-1142,697.3336.5030,021.6334.20925.1

130、8-5.202010-1248,267.0733.2034,038.1432.901,067.44-5.902011-024,250.3735.203,013.7034.9058.77-9.102011-038,846.3634.106,253.1337.40146.048.802011-0413,340.1634.309,497.3138.60236.9114.002011-0518,737.2334.6013,290.4137.80336.3511.502011-0626,250.4532.9018,640.6736.10471.788.902011-0731,873.0333.6022,

131、789.3836.40556.384.702011-0837,780.8433.2027,117.9836.40653.565.502011-0944,224.8432.0031,787.7735.20771.807.702011-1049,922.8231.1035,832.1234.30896.438.102011-1155,483.0329.9039,856.6432.801,014.309.602011-1261,739.7827.9044,308.4330.201,095.632.502012-025,431.0027.803,713.0023.20数据来源：WIND本年购置土地面积

132、累计值本年购置土地面积累计同比房屋新开工面积累计值房屋新开工面积累计同比住宅新开工面积累计值住宅新开工面积累计同比房屋施工面积累计值（万平）（%）（万平）（%）（万平）（%）（万平）-36.2037.5044.80-8.8033.0038.301.6044.0051.3041.4049.404.7040.2046.9016.6044.3050.3026.9046.9051.0033.4049.3053.5042.3052.2056.7050.2053.1057.8050.2046.3051.30380.8889.901,537.7275.401,285.5793.1017,338.89964.

133、2484.403,522.6553.102,966.7164.2025,756.551,670.8890.705,013.2041.204,237.4748.4029,960.122,185.1178.306,697.0437.105,636.1840.9033,758.002,898.8482.208,770.5434.207,377.3537.7037,094.503,533.3869.4010,227.6429.408,575.9031.4039,464.924,070.9061.7011,627.4324.409,738.7727.0041,277.964,509.1755.2013,

134、096.2823.0010,988.1326.4043,299.915,100.5047.8014,653.6920.3012,277.7723.3045,066.865,638.0640.5016,219.4720.9013,617.4524.0047,383.1110,903.0635.9021,632.7115.2018,049.3617.9055,105.11641.0068.302,206.2343.501,861.7044.8019,169.331,467.7952.204,747.1834.803,970.7833.8027,754.922,399.9143.606,697.66

135、33.605,654.6233.4032,351.133,378.4454.608,961.9133.807,559.0834.1036,463.574,229.2945.9011,621.4732.509,768.5332.4040,846.385,410.9653.1013,572.8432.7011,340.4332.2044,030.416,143.2950.9015,387.4732.3012,860.9932.1046,559.537,043.7056.2017,254.9531.8014,408.6131.1049,154.577,757.4352.1019,199.2731.0

136、016,006.5130.4051,567.638,692.1954.2021,338.6231.6017,822.2430.9054,134.6915,267.1840.0028,259.0330.6023,335.3329.3063,529.011,179.9884.102,873.6630.302,400.1428.9024,049.591,993.5535.806,142.2529.405,152.4529.8033,741.243,418.7242.508,677.9229.607,259.9328.4039,322.044,912.6745.4011,741.2631.009,78

137、9.2129.5044,394.026,666.4557.6015,477.5133.2012,817.1131.2049,523.898,201.3651.6018,458.4036.0015,239.0334.4053,829.419,613.2456.5021,022.8636.6017,327.9834.7057,115.9610,896.4254.7023,666.8937.2019,456.6935.0060,384.5312,803.1665.0025,893.5634.9021,278.7932.9063,184.0313,933.9860.3028,277.3732.5023

138、,232.4630.4065,851.5521,660.6041.9035,946.0327.2029,293.3125.5077,213.491,511.7928.103,750.7630.503,069.2127.9028,453.233,875.8293.207,744.9826.106,475.4525.7040,784.295,974.7274.8011,108.4628.009,269.1627.7048,546.947,199.4646.4014,355.8022.3011,873.4721.3054,111.989,736.5046.1018,534.6619.8015,277

139、.6519.2060,528.9511,939.6445.6021,779.1818.0017,947.3517.8066,031.4113,717.6542.3024,697.2117.5020,272.9017.0069,714.7515,954.9546.0027,980.8018.2022,988.2318.2073,749.1917,977.4340.1030,957.5419.6025,455.7319.6077,386.6120,239.7345.3033,675.8119.1027,647.9319.0080,730.0430,412.3240.3042,259.8517.60

140、34,224.1016.8092,756.992,700.2678.605,615.4649.704,624.6650.7037,464.595,379.7238.8010,528.6435.908,729.6434.8052,592.317,693.3128.8014,629.8731.7012,058.7930.1061,320.1811,280.2056.7018,948.7532.0015,527.4430.8069,463.3115,069.3854.7024,340.8931.0019,876.0830.1077,582.9218,511.3255.0028,520.0729.90

141、23,264.8229.6083,423.8620,191.5847.2032,472.5931.2026,375.3330.1088,296.5723,082.2044.7036,563.1330.4029,607.8128.8093,615.8625,345.9441.0040,226.5429.6032,474.4527.6098,234.1527,798.4137.3043,836.8929.9035,240.7427.50102,930.0236,965.0321.5054,319.1028.5043,676.4427.60116,907.463,916.1844.407,427.4

142、532.305,851.5526.5054,212.477,166.7133.2012,899.5422.5010,309.5818.1070,072.869,492.1323.4017,412.0619.3013,985.8516.2080,291.4012,380.459.8022,495.8118.7018,041.0116.2089,534.5615,489.412.8028,036.7415.2022,503.2813.2097,785.4118,739.406.0032,763.0014.9026,327.8713.20103,899.1721,411.496.0036,900.1

143、913.7029,590.6112.20109,988.1524,024.383.8041,070.2912.2032,786.8510.60115,680.8027,059.917.0044,987.6611.7035,860.1110.30120,484.9129,886.657.4049,015.6311.7039,000.4510.60125,532.3139,984.665.4060,413.8610.4047,949.019.30140,451.393,648.15-6.807,498.101.006,094.214.3063,848.407,374.163.9014,096.60

144、9.3011,408.4310.7083,558.649,716.362.4019,570.9312.4015,932.1213.9096,315.6112,833.253.7025,066.0511.4020,470.0613.50106,346.9416,299.693.9031,175.2510.9025,552.9013.30116,270.4319,448.323.9037,128.2113.3030,303.4215.10124,535.1222,015.632.7041,714.9013.0033,930.2014.70130,957.7624,805.013.1046,495.

145、5713.2037,716.5015.00137,325.2827,532.531.6050,681.0612.5041,103.0614.40142,968.6531,078.514.0055,126.0112.3044,646.2114.30148,851.1138,209.86-4.0066,840.0410.6054,033.9712.70164,444.973,460.94-5.109,617.2428.307,815.7528.2080,259.716,685.12-9.3017,215.9222.1014,151.9224.00103,062.079,221.74-5.1023,

146、882.8721.9019,575.6922.90117,564.6711,587.18-9.7030,246.5420.7024,826.7321.30128,577.0915,683.72-3.8037,904.6221.6031,041.4021.50140,551.8918,520.09-4.8043,575.5817.4035,797.2518.10148,498.8921,090.02-4.2048,740.9316.8039,999.8617.90155,122.5224,054.23-3.0054,885.4918.0044,930.5019.10163,273.6326,82

147、7.00-2.6059,847.5218.1049,050.3119.30169,840.6929,459.50-5.2065,048.3218.0053,178.2519.10176,169.7136,791.02-3.8078,131.3515.1063,567.5015.60194,090.162,409.02-30.409,966.743.608,347.896.8094,210.696,110.04-8.6019,044.2310.6015,909.4312.40124,377.139,162.95-0.6027,382.3114.7022,810.2816.50142,615.71

148、12,169.885.0035,510.3417.4029,717.4519.70156,739.8717,251.8210.0044,891.9718.4037,537.1420.90171,375.6020,880.4412.7052,557.6620.6043,797.7422.30181,937.8924,290.0715.2059,272.3721.6049,349.2423.40190,302.3628,346.3517.8066,727.9721.6055,531.5723.60199,866.6331,350.7916.9073,393.3222.6060,899.1924.2

149、0208,565.6934,031.0315.5079,935.5722.9066,232.4424.50216,629.2540,609.1811.0094,590.2019.4078,135.9821.30235,881.613,270.3135.8012,679.1027.2010,423.0724.90124,405.797,922.1429.7023,971.3625.9019,862.1724.80158,622.2810,175.6711.1032,969.9620.4027,422.3020.20178,864.3913,835.1713.7042,525.7119.8035,

150、265.5518.70195,699.3018,560.987.6053,472.7819.1044,309.1218.00212,660.4621,973.805.2060,509.9915.1050,170.6414.60222,896.7024,942.112.7067,048.6313.1055,567.3712.60231,607.9427,536.73-2.9073,521.2510.2060,840.179.60240,384.3829,596.12-5.6078,772.287.3065,113.226.90247,635.3532,016.50-5.9084,289.515.

151、4069,537.705.00254,936.1436,785.37-8.6097,573.902.3079,889.101.40274,149.012,288.07-30.0010,798.40-14.808,457.28-18.90142,061.034,741.65-40.1020,082.36-16.2015,945.59-19.70178,718.137,266.10-28.6027,836.75-15.6022,332.27-18.60200,977.729,874.77-28.6035,652.20-16.2028,682.02-18.70218,526.9713,643.98-

152、26.5047,921.45-10.4038,487.29-13.10239,634.3016,308.50-25.8054,979.73-9.1044,182.22-11.90250,683.7018,630.67-25.3063,107.06-5.9050,616.41-8.90262,824.5221,451.10-22.1073,223.49-0.4058,696.80-3.50277,410.3324,071.65-18.7081,374.613.3065,391.600.40288,200.0327,091.47-15.4097,573.6515.8078,485.0812.902

153、98,839.8331,906.08-18.90115,385.3412.5092,463.4710.50319,649.542,406.6211.2014,914.3237.5011,834.3339.20209,687.376,165.9830.0032,288.6060.8025,945.9662.70242,202.689,182.5826.4045,686.8164.1036,372.4462.90264,631.1412,942.5431.1061,462.6472.4048,662.1269.70285,085.2418,501.2335.6080,450.9467.9063,6

154、63.6065.40308,427.7221,746.7033.3092,183.2767.7073,276.3465.90324,259.3925,691.0037.90104,847.4666.1083,244.4264.50339,180.7329,083.0935.60119,441.0063.1094,408.2360.80355,402.2032,800.0036.20131,800.0061.90104,171.7959.30369,800.0036,100.0033.20145,100.0048.70114,721.5346.20384,300.0040,969.5328.40

155、163,776.6740.70129,467.9338.80405,538.913,780.3557.1019,083.0027.9014,838.0025.40291,472.988,180.7832.7039,842.0023.4031,025.0019.60327,401.7611,970.0330.4056,841.0024.4044,088.6621.20352,471.6216,638.2428.6076,118.1623.8058,698.9720.60377,516.0421,909.8018.4099,442.5923.6076,865.7520.70405,737.5625

156、,089.0415.40115,169.1624.9089,117.8521.60424,195.2528,177.249.70131,880.6725.80102,089.3522.60442,615.9631,184.027.20147,774.6923.70114,479.7721.30460,785.5533,747.963.00160,362.0021.70124,115.0019.10474,785.6737,153.413.00174,952.0020.50134,940.0017.60491,311.0640,972.952.60190,082.7016.20146,034.5

157、712.90507,959.394,684.00-0.5020,049.005.1014,832.000.00394,901.00房屋施工面积累计同比房屋竣工面积累计值房屋竣工面积累计同比商品房销售面积累计值商品房销售面积累计同比（%）（万平）（%）（万平）（%）12.10-20.4037.506.20-16.9040.605.40-5.9039.909.501.6045.408.906.9051.7012.0013.2051.3011.5014.4052.0013.4013.2051.7014.2019.9050.8013.9020.1048.1011.5011.6034.8030.3052

158、4.8260.40415.059.7029.101,151.0953.001,025.7328.1024.101,745.0539.601,586.5421.6022.702,342.6935.402,146.0916.5021.103,403.1536.102,979.4113.3019.404,301.2327.103,633.969.2017.005,072.5124.004,287.358.3015.706,163.8023.505,102.309.9014.107,527.0722.206,061.5912.8015.108,974.4922.007,062.3915.8013.30

159、19,783.5728.0013,380.5825.2010.60668.3827.40636.1053.307.801,308.1213.601,391.5535.708.001,924.9810.302,153.9335.808.002,715.6115.902,958.1337.8010.104,119.1421.004,073.1836.7011.605,123.0219.105,014.8338.0012.806,173.3521.706,006.8840.1013.507,536.8522.307,088.7338.9014.408,893.3918.208,248.8036.10

160、14.2010,779.3220.109,553.2635.3015.3023,027.9216.4016,984.1426.9025.50760.3613.80877.9638.0021.601,698.0229.801,828.7231.4021.502,586.2934.402,800.7830.0021.703,433.8326.403,795.0528.3021.204,840.6617.505,126.5725.9022.306,044.7418.006,365.2926.9022.707,419.8720.207,603.8526.6022.808,975.8319.108,97

161、7.2726.6022.5010,555.5818.7010,168.9423.3021.6012,681.8417.6011,617.5521.6021.5027,303.1618.6020,779.2422.3018.30837.3410.10923.755.2020.902,050.9020.802,152.6617.7023.503,083.8119.203,395.5720.7021.904,075.5018.704,604.8520.3022.205,826.4320.406,311.2022.5022.707,516.5524.307,689.7020.8022.109,346.

162、2126.009,357.5722.3022.1011,342.0926.4011,174.1324.0022.5013,463.5727.5013,021.3227.6022.6016,270.6628.3015,117.3729.8020.1032,522.8119.1024,969.2720.2031.601,463.7174.801,556.9368.9029.002,989.6845.803,155.0745.2025.804,280.7938.004,632.5136.4028.105,791.3441.406,333.1637.5027.908,187.4040.408,672.

163、3537.4027.9010,367.9037.7010,657.1338.0027.7012,439.9832.8012,628.7035.0027.8015,325.8134.9015,189.2435.9027.6017,990.7433.3017,447.8934.0027.3021,006.9329.0019,950.2032.0026.0039,509.7521.5032,247.2429.1044.601,909.9330.302,221.5142.7032.803,680.6221.304,271.1635.4031.005,309.8422.906,200.7033.3028

164、.707,084.3121.408,310.0930.9025.809,552.9815.6011,009.8826.3024.3011,808.5112.9013,426.5825.2024.3013,989.1011.6015,595.9723.0023.3016,882.619.5018,201.7719.3022.3019,849.599.8020,681.6318.0021.7023,607.5411.7023,725.5118.5019.2042,464.872.1038,231.6413.7017.202,334.8421.302,596.4515.4019.204,161.33

165、13.105,172.6720.3020.005,999.1413.007,194.2716.0018.808,095.2713.809,484.8313.9018.8011,124.3616.3012,536.3514.0019.8014,700.5124.0016,526.9222.9018.9017,460.7324.7031,202.4724.3018.7020,250.0119.9034,725.6023.0018.5023,773.6919.6039,352.1922.2018.5028,010.6118.6043,388.2320.8017.1048,792.5214.9055,

166、769.1415.3025.703,368.3644.305,343.897.8023.305,657.1635.909,458.7110.2022.107,888.8831.5013,560.879.4020.9010,034.6624.0018,136.9614.7020.9013,390.8820.4022,976.6216.5019.2016,313.5711.0027,307.9812.6018.5018,919.348.4031,384.598.9018.9022,014.838.7035,883.3710.5018.8025,790.498.5040,780.6710.9018.

167、4030,471.508.8046,113.9312.0017.1053,019.36-0.6060,628.1412.2017.403,330.54-1.105,371.470.5020.706,192.199.5010,600.7712.8021.308,711.5710.4015,765.1616.4021.9011,196.8711.6021,148.0016.6021.9014,870.6611.1027,904.1521.5022.5017,939.4810.0034,137.2425.1022.7020,834.6510.1040,572.8129.3022.4024,436.6

168、211.0047,369.7132.1022.8028,134.759.1053,564.9631.3023.0033,061.218.5060,156.8930.5021.1058,235.884.3076,192.7023.2032.104,381.6531.605,144.15-4.2027.507,855.8526.9010,449.56-1.4025.4010,411.0319.5014,994.15-4.9024.9013,233.2218.2019,633.40-7.2024.1016,920.2813.8025,892.63-7.2022.5020,382.3913.6030,

169、453.96-10.8021.7023,371.4512.2034,592.28-14.7020.3026,804.669.7040,320.76-14.9018.7030,691.699.1044,722.96-16.5017.7035,084.236.1049,148.38-18.3016.0058,502.01-3.5062,088.94-19.7014.205,650.5729.005,131.23-0.3012.709,922.3326.3011,308.748.2012.4013,230.9727.1017,625.4517.5011.7016,218.7922.6024,644.

170、4425.5012.7020,668.4722.2034,108.5931.7012.5025,398.2524.6041,754.9837.1013.5029,222.7425.0049,416.0442.9015.4033,401.7524.6058,371.0244.8016.4037,671.4422.7066,368.7348.4017.2044,248.8726.1075,203.1553.0012.8072,677.009.2094,755.0043.6029.306,100.878.207,155.1838.2035.5011,116.9612.0015,360.9235.80

171、31.7015,020.0613.5023,412.1632.8030.5019,158.1118.1030,189.4322.5028.7024,423.5718.2039,352.5315.4029.4028,603.4812.6045,818.619.7029.1032,347.5910.7052,704.476.7028.1036,874.9610.4063,150.238.2028.3042,000.0011.4072,428.559.1028.6048,500.009.6082,541.279.8026.6075,960.974.50104,349.1110.1039.006,95

172、1.5213.908,143.0013.8035.2012,831.5115.4017,643.0014.9033.2017,126.9714.0024,898.006.3032.4021,620.5112.9032,931.649.1031.6027,558.0312.8044,419.3312.9030.8032,445.4313.4052,037.1213.6030.5037,094.9814.7059,854.1813.6029.7043,455.9817.8071,288.7512.9028.4049,720.6718.5079,653.0010.0027.9059,326.1722.3089,594.008.5025.3089,244.2513.30109,945.564.9035.5010,094.0045.207,004.00-14.00