1、Clinician of the FutureHealthClinician of the Future 2023Elevating global voices in healthcareClinician of the Future 20232ContentsForeword 3Summary 4Introduction 6Chapter 1:Clinicians are seeking balance 8Chapter 2:Technology and AI are empowering clinicians 19Chapter 3:Knowledge and technology are
2、 transforming the clinicianpatient relationship 32Chapter 4:Clinicians imagine a value-based future 42Conclusion 51Methodology 52Acknowledgments 53Appendices 54Clinician of the Future 2023Clinician of the Future 20233Clinician of the Future 2023ForewordThe future of health is being profoundly shaped
3、 by a convergence of key factors that are redefining how we approach healthcare on a global scale.First and foremost,advancements in medical technology are driving unprecedented innovations,allowing for more accurate diagnoses,personalized treatments,and enhanced patient outcomes.Cutting-edge techno
4、logies such as artificial intelligence,genomics,telemedicine,and wearable devices are revolutionizing patient care by enabling healthcare professionals to make data-driven decisions and tailor interventions to individual needs.Additionally,the increasing emphasis on preventive healthcare is reshapin
5、g the landscape,with a shift towards proactive measures aimed at identifying and addressing health risks before they escalate into more serious conditions.This preventive approach,coupled with greater patient empowerment through health education and awareness,is fostering a new era of self-managed w
6、ellness.Last year,we launched the Clinician of the Future report to explore emerging trends shaping the future of healthcare and elevate the voices of thousands of clinicians around the world on the opportunities and challenges they are facing in their roles.Since the world were living in is changin
7、g rapidly,were pleased to share with you the latest findings and insights from the Clinician of the Future 2023 report.In this report,you will learn more about key priorities for the future of health,including clinicians concerns on the ongoing nursing and doctor shortage,their interest and apprehen
8、sion on the fast-moving world of artificial intelligence,their views on improving the continuous training of clinicians,and perspectives on the integration of scientific research in clinical practice.At Elsevier Health we support current and future healthcare professionals by providing trusted,evide
9、nce-based content and data analytics to help inform clinical decisions.As part of our company mission,we are committed to identifying and providing solutions to address the changing healthcare landscape today and tomorrow and will continue to listen and amplify the voices of those on the frontlines
10、of patient care.I hope you enjoy reading this report and if youre interested in learning more about upcoming Clinician of the Future reports and events,please sign up to be a part of the Clinician of the Future community.Sincerely,Jan HerzhoffPresident,Elsevier HealthClinician of the Future 20234Sum
11、maryTodays clinicians are enthusiastic about their roles,but many are acutely aware of the challenges facing healthcare,including staff shortages.They are keen to balance this and can see the potential of technological solutions,including artificial intelligence(AI),to ease their work burden.These a
12、re all drivers of change,helping shape tomorrows healthcare landscape one in which the clinician of the future will work.Elsevier Health developed the inaugural Clinician of the Future report in 2022;this 2023 survey explores the latest trends in clinicians perspectives.This new report takes a snaps
13、hot of clinician behavior and opinion that shows progress or not toward the possible futures we envisioned in the Clinician of the Future Report 2022.Through an online survey;2,607 clinicians around the world shared their experiences and views.This report focuses on four themes that emerged strongly
14、 from the results.Clinicians are seeking balanceFor details,see Chapter 1 on page 8Clinicians enjoy their work,but more are considering leaving their roles(37%)than in 2022(33%),and 13%are considering leaving healthcare altogether,with many(9%)retiring.Clinician shortage is a concern,particularly in
15、 the UK and the USA,and many are worried that newly qualified doctors did not get enough hands-on training due to COVID-19.Digital technology,including artificial intelligence(AI),could be part of the solution as we move toward the Future Balanced Clinician envisioned in the Clinician of the Future
16、Report 2022.86%enjoy their jobs but they continue to worklong hours49 hours is the average working week37%are considering leaving their jobs in thenext 2-3 years13%are considering leaving healthcare in thenext 2-3 years54%rate tackling the shortage of nursesas a top priorityTechnology and AI are emp
17、owering cliniciansFor details,see Chapter 2 on page 19The dependency on technology has always been high among clinicians but the appetite for it as an enabling tool is increasing,as it is perceived to help address time pressures,create efficiencies and enhance clinical practice.There is an appetite
18、to use generative AI tools to learn and inform their decision making,and a growing desire among clinicians to have digital technology expertise,especially as they anticipate using patient-collected data to help make decisions.The Future Tech-Savvy Clinician is closer than clinicians may have imagine
19、d:many of their predictions for healthcare a decade in the future now seem to be on the 2-3 year horizon.This includes using generative AI tools,though there are differences of opinion and debate around future use of AI.48%find it desirable for physicians to use AIin clinical decision making11%of cl
20、inical decisions are currently assistedby generative AI tools51%consider AI desirable for training doctors,50%for training nurses73%consider it desirable for doctors to be digitalexperts,and 71%for nurses68%find it desirable that patient-collected datainforms clinical decisionsClinician of the Futur
21、e 2023Clinician of the Future 20235Knowledge and technology are transforming the clinicianpatient relationshipFor details,see Chapter 3 on page 32There is a trend towards patient empowerment,with clinicians expecting their health literacy,knowledge of social determinants of health(SDOH)and proactive
22、 health management to grow in the coming five years.As the use of digital technologies(e.g.wearables)increases and interactions become more virtual,clinicians may need to upskill.This progress toward the Future Partner for Health that we envisioned in the Clinician of the Future Report 2022 will be
23、supported by developments in digital technology.Clinicians think that:Two in five(41%)patients are health literate todayHalf(49%)of patients will be health literate in 2028Knowledge of SDOH:35%today 48%in 5 yearsActive management of health:38%today 49%in 5 yearsUse of monitoring tools:27%today 45%in
24、 5 years55%find telehealth desirable as the main mechanismfor routine check-ups61%of clinicians have enough time to provide goodpatient careClinicians imagine a value-based futureFor details,see Chapter 4 on page 42Overall,clinicians have a positive sentiment toward value-based care,with most expect
25、ing it to reduce burden on secondary care and improve the patient experience while saving costs.They recognize the importance of moving to a preventive and personalized approach,noting there is still a journey ahead,including improving preventive care.Although value-based care is not yet a broad rea
26、lity in most countries,some are moving towards it,and clinicians generally see this positively.74%of clinicians think more should be donein preventive care73%of clinicians expect that most patients willbe managed in primary care settings69%of clinicians expect hospital stays to be shorter67%expect i
27、nstitutions to monitor patients socialdeterminants of health51%of clinicians expect value-based careto lower costs40%of clinicians consider personalized treatmentapproaches a top priorityThis is a dynamic picture,and as new clinicians enter the workforce,the landscape will continue to shift.We condu
28、cted this 2023 survey to keep listening to clinicians,and were not stopping here.Our next step on this journey is a survey of students on AI and a number of other topics.We invite you to share your thoughts and input with us.With these insights,we can continue to develop solutions that help clinicia
29、ns and their Follow Elsevier Connect on Twitter,Facebook and LinkedInClinician of the Future 20236Healthcare continues to change,and were taking its pulseIn the Clinician of the Future Report 2022,we looked at the future clinician from five angles,and identified the different skills,profiles,and rol
30、es that could meet the challenges clinicians identified ahead.We established a baseline by asking clinicians about their current experience,and we asked them to look a decade ahead to build a picture of what might be coming.One year on,we have taken a pulse of the evolving world of healthcare.We hav
31、e followed up on some previous findings,looked from different angles at others,and opened new lines of investigation.In this report,you can read the results and find out how the landscape is shifting.IntroductionClinician:In this report,when we talk about clinicians we are referring to physicians an
32、d nurses in primary and secondary care.The Clinician of the FutureLooking at the clinician of the future from five angles highlights how multifaceted their work is,today and in the future.It also shows the multiple challenges clinicians face,and the range of solutions they will need access to in ord
33、er to navigate the world of healthcare tomorrow.The Future Clinician as a Partner for Health will work collaboratively with patients,who are informed,empowered members of their own care team.The Future“Total Health”Clinician will help people stay healthy rather than waiting until they become ill,by
34、focusing on preventive healthcare.The Future Tech-Savvy Clinician will improve patient outcomes by using data and the latest digital health technologies,which are constantly evolving.The Future Balanced Clinician will have a better worklife balance if staff shortages are addressed,helping avoid the
35、burnout prevalent today.The Future Accessible Clinician is aware of health inequities and works in a system that makes care more available to diverse populations.In this report,we have the future clinician in mind,and we refer to these five perspectives within the four main trends that came through
36、in the latest survey.Clinician of the Future 20237Clinician of the Future 2023In this study,our objective was to take the pulse of attitudes and perceptions among healthcare professionals,to see where we stand one year on.The aim was to uncover shifts in expectations that could impact the way health
37、care is delivered in the future and consider what clinicians might do as those changes progress.Clinician surveyThe world today is quite different to the one in which we captured clinicians views for the inaugural Clinician of the Future report:in late 2021,many countries were experiencing ongoing m
38、easures to deal with the COVID-19 pandemic.Although still affecting many people,the COVID-19 pandemic has further abated,and we have increasingly adjusted to a new post-pandemic life.Some of the changes the pandemic brought in have remained permanent,notably the rise of telehealth.One of the biggest
39、 shifts we have seen in the healthcare sector in the last year has been the emergence and rapid growth of AI,particularly generative AI tools like ChatGPT and Bard.To ensure we have a representative picture of clinicians experience today and expectations of the future,we have asked a number of quest
40、ions about their attitudes to AI.Alongside the survey results,we have explored aspects of todays healthcare landscape,putting a spotlight on three markets:China,the UK and the USA.Each country and region has its own context,and this has an influence on clinicians responses.While we have tried to int
41、erpret responses within context,we are taking an objective view of the survey data.We share the results in the text and highlight some in visuals;you can explore the full results at 2023 report takes a snapshot of clinician behavior and opinion that shows progress or not toward the possible futures
42、we envisioned in the 2022 report.By continuing to elevate the voices of clinicians,we can better understand the challenges they expect to face in the years ahead and consider how all healthcare stakeholders can partner with doctors and nurses to support them in providing the best care possible for t
43、heir patients.10-15-minute online survey n=2,607 clinicians from 116 countriesApril and May 2023See the Methodology(page 52)and Appendix(page 54)for a more detailed breakdown.Clinician of the FutureHealthClinicians are seeking balanceClinician of the Future 2023Chapter 1Clinicians are seeking balanc
44、e 86%enjoy their jobs but they continue to work long hours 49 hours is the average working week 37%are considering leaving their jobs in the next 2-3 years 13%are considering leaving healthcare in the next 2-3 years 54%rate tackling the shortage of nurses as a top priorityClinicians enjoy their work
45、,but more are considering leaving their roles(37%)than in 2022(33%),and 13%are considering leaving healthcare altogether,with many(9%)retiring.Clinician shortage is a concern across most markets,particularly in the UK and the USA,and many are worried that newly qualified doctors did not get enough h
46、ands-on training due to COVID-19.Digital technology,including artificial intelligence(AI),could be part of the solution as we move toward the Future Balanced Clinician envisioned in the Clinician of the Future Report 2022.In the 2022 Clinician of the Future survey,clinicians shared that they love wh
47、at they do.Despite experiencing the COVID-19 pandemic and facing a range of challenges and frustrations,clinicians are enthusiastic about their jobs.The Clinician of the Future 2023 survey shows that the vast majority of clinicians still enjoy their jobs:86%of clinicians globally agreed,the same lev
48、el of agreement as the 2022 survey.Most clinicians enjoy their rolesAgreement is high across different regions;it is highest in South America,where 94%of clinicians reported enjoying their jobs(95%of doctors and 93%of nurses).Although most respondents agree,there was a significant drop in job enjoym
49、ent since the previous study in China,where 86%of doctors and nurses enjoy their jobs,down from 91%and 90%respectively in 2022.Job enjoyment is significantly lower among doctors in the USA(80%)and the UK(76%).Given the backdrop of overstretched healthcare systems,with widespread striking in the USA1
50、 and UK,2 clinicians have had a challenging year.In the Clinician of the Future Report 2022,we saw a picture of clinicians around the world burning out due to pressure from the COVID-19 pandemic,coupled with feeling undervalued.Although the height of the COVID-19 pandemic is now further behind us,cl
51、inicians are still feeling the pressure.According to the Physicians Foundations 2022 Survey of Americas Physicians,capacity issues mean one-third of physicians are overextended and overworked today,and nearly half are at maximum capacity.3 Almost half of respondents do not have high professional mor
52、ale,and more than half lack positive feelings about the profession.The result?Half of respondents would not recommend a career in medicine.Similarly,research published in Mayo Clinic Proceedings showed that in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic,“only 57%of doctors would choose medicine again.”4Clinic
53、ian of the Future 20239Many clinicians are considering leaving healthcare in the near futureIn this years survey,we have seen an increase in the percentage of respondents considering leaving their roles in the next 2-3 years,with 37%considering this in 2023;the comparable figure was 33%in 2022.The i
54、ncrease since last year is being driven by more nurses considering leaving(increasing from 34%to 42%),with the proportion of doctors remaining at 33%.Europe(51%)and North America(52%)have the highest rates of nurses considering leaving,both significantly higher than the global average.It is similar
55、for doctors in both regions(39%and 47%respectively).The largest shift among nurses since last year is in Asia Pacific(from 17%to 30%in 2023).The proportion considering leaving their roles is highest for nurses in the UK(54%).Statement:I am considering leaving my current role within the next 2-3 year
56、sQuestion:B1.To what extent do you agree or disagree with each of the following statements with regards to healthcare?Please think about your current experience working in healthcare.Region and Country%Nurses Agree(n=657)2022%2022%2022%Doctors Agree(n=1,950)%Clinicians Agree(n=2,607)Base SizesTOTAL2
57、,607Asia Pacific807Europe912North America394South America345Mid.East&Africa120China418UK272USA3653333232040454850333346151444494850524230515238Low BaseLow Base14544237274550411548503323394745211548Dr3417AP49AP,SA513314CH55CH51APAPAP,EUAP,SAAPAPCHCHCHCHSignificantly higher or lower than totalSignific
58、antly higher or lower than 2022Significantly higher than Role/Region/Country(indicated by first two letters e.g.AP=APAC)Asia Pacific=APEurope=EUMid.East&Africa=MEANorth America =NASouth America=SAChina=CHUK=UKUSA=USDr=DoctorsNu=NursesWe also asked survey participants what they are most likely to do
59、next.Of the 37%considering leaving their roles,24%plan to move to another role in healthcare,and 13%plan to leave healthcare altogether,either by moving to a non-healthcare-related job or retiring.(Please see the full research analysis accompanying this report for more detail.)Again,there are signif
60、icant regional differences.In North America,where 50%of respondents are considering leaving their jobs,almost half of them(24%)are planning to leave healthcare or retire.Similarly in the UK,48%are considering leaving their jobs and 24%plan to leave healthcare or retire.At the other end of the spectr
61、um,clinicians in APAC are much more likely than those in other regions to remain in healthcare,with only 5%saying they plan to leave.Looking at the differences between roles,nurses are much more likely to be considering leaving their roles and leaving healthcare:33%of doctors may leave their roles,b
62、ut only 11%plan to leave healthcare or retire.This is significantly higher for nurses,with 42%considering leaving their roles and 16%planning to leave healthcare or retire.(You can find more detail in the full research analysis accompanying this report.)Notably,30%of nurses in the UK and 25%of nurse
63、s in the USA are considering leaving healthcare altogether in the near future.Clinician of the Future 202310Retirement,promotion or frustration:why are clinicians planning to leave?There are many reasons for leaving a role,and in the case of clinicians looking to move within healthcare,they could be
64、 pursuing the next step on their career ladder.For those who are considering leaving healthcare,the growing frustration with systems under pressure could be having an impact.A 2023 study conducted in China revealed that less than half of the medical staff studied expressed job satisfaction,pointing
65、to salary and benefits as a major contributing factor.5 According to the National Governors Association,almost 20%of the US healthcare workforce left their jobs at the start of the pandemic,and another 20%were considering doing the same in the subsequent months.6Theres a similar picture in the UK,wh
66、ere GPs are most likely to plan to stop seeing patients in the near future,according to the Commonwealth Funds 2022 International Health Policy Survey of Primary Care Physicians.7 The survey linked this directly to stress:35%of the doctors who were extremely or very stressed planned to stop seeing p
67、atients,compared to 23%of those who found their jobs less stressful.This is indicative of a broader picture of job mobility.In the cross-sector Hopes and Fears survey of 54,000 employees in 46 countries,PwC found that 26%of people expected to change jobs within a year an increase from 19%in 2022.8We
68、 also know that many clinicians are planning to retire.In the USA,more than a quarter of doctors are older than 60,and the average age of a nurse is 50.9 In the Commonwealth Fund survey,doctors aged over 55 were more likely(67%)to plan to stop seeing patients regularly compared to those aged under 3
69、5(15%).10Statement:I am considering leaving my current role within the next 2-3 yearsQuestion:B1.To what extent do you agree or disagree with each of the following statements with regards to healthcare?Please think about your current experience working in healthcare.85%15%42%48%86%58%46%52%48%19%30%
70、22%25%13%10%23%24%26%27%2%4%1%0%5%8%8%8%2%Leave Healthcare4%Leave Healthcare19%Leave Healthcare30%Leave Healthcare22%Leave Healthcare25%Leave Healthcare1%4%14%22%14%17%63%37%24%4%RetireLeavehealthcareConsidering leaving roleStay in roleMove to anotherhealthcare role9%13%NotRetire14%54%52%ChinaTotalU
71、KUSA%Doctors%Nursesn=279n=139n=2,607n=164n=108n=232n=133Clinician of the Future 202311The Physicians Foundation research echoed this:among the 21%of doctors who want to retire in the next year,30%were aged 46 and over,compared to 12%aged up to 45.11And in the UK,the BMJ reported that the number of d
72、octors choosing to retire early has increased by 9.3%a year on average,from 376 in 2008 to 1,424 in 2023.12 In total,the number of doctors has grown from 2,431 in 2008 to 3,277 in 2023 a rise of 35%in 15 years.A positive shift in the clinicians daily role“Whether through reduced hours or retirement,
73、the loss of expertise of our most senior doctorswhether in hospitals or GP practicesis a huge loss for patients,colleagues,and the future of the NHS.”Vishal Sharma,chair of the BMA Consultants Committee and pensions committee,talking to the BMJ.12In the Clinician of the Future Report 2022,we identif
74、ied adjusting roles as a driver of change:many clinicians felt their roles had worsened over the previous 5 to 10 years.However,overall,the 2023 survey reveals a slightly positive shift in the way clinicians see their daily roles and responsibilities.Clinicians have registered a move toward preventi
75、ve care;74%of clinicians think there is not enough being done on preventative care in 2023,an improvement on 80%who thought this in 2022.Clinicians are also overwhelmingly confident in the sources of information they are using to make clinical decisions,at 89%of clinicians feeling confident globally
76、.This is significantly higher among doctors in the Middle East and Africa(95%),and nurses in the UK(94%)and UK clinicians overall(94%).More clinicians have sufficient time to provide good patient careGlobally,61%of clinicians say they have enough time to provide good patient care,up from the compara
77、ble figure of 52%in 2022.It is worth noting that the 2022 findings were based on a survey conducted closer to the height of the COVID-19 pandemic,when clinicians were focused on managing the pandemic,overstretched and likely to have a limited amount of time spend with individual patients.Looking at
78、their roles today more broadly,clinicians globally reported spending almost two-thirds(65%)of their time directly caring for patients,with 19%of their time spent on indirect patient care and 16%on non-care-related tasks.The proportion of time spent on direct care is lower in Europe(58%)and South Ame
79、rica(56%).Across the remaining regions,clinicians spent more time on direct patient care.This is significantly higher than the global average in North America(69%),particularly among doctors(72%),and in Asia Pacific(70%),particularly among nurses(75%).At 69%and 68%,USA and UK clinicians spend more t
80、ime than average directly caring for patients.And in China,nurses report spending 90%of their time on direct patient care.In Europe and South America,clinicians spend about one-fifth of their time(18%and 21%respectively)on tasks not involving patient care.There is potential for digital technology to
81、 reduce this.Clinicians work-balance improves but remains a challengeIn the Clinician of the Future Report 2022,we saw clinicians often feeling overworked,overwhelmed and burned out.The full-time employed clinicians surveyed worked 50 hours on average in a typical week,and only 57%agreed they had a
82、good worklife balance.This has improved in the last year,with 63%of clinicians now agreeing they have a good worklife balance.The groups reporting the best worklife balance are nurses in China(79%)and nurses in the USA(75%).Worklife balance remains a greater challenge in Europe,where just over half(
83、51%)of clinicians agree their balance is good;49%of doctors and 53%of nurses agreed.Looking at hours worked for those working full-time,there has been a decrease in the average,now at 49 hours one hour less than in the 2022 report.The average working hours are a little higher in Asia Pacific,at 50 h
84、ours(though this is a reduction compared to 52 last year).Doctors work longer hours than nurses,at 52 hours for doctors and 42 hours for nurses globally,and doctors consistently worked longer across all regions.Clinician of the Future 202312Although this suggests a slight positive step forward for c
85、linicians over the last year,zooming out to the broader evidence base,clinicians have been struggling especially in the UK and USA.In a 2022 CHG Healthcare survey of over 500 physicians,43%changed jobs,8%retired and 3%left healthcare during the pandemic.13 In line with our current Clinician of the F
86、uture survey,13%of CHG respondents plan to leave healthcare in the near future.Their biggest reason for doctors making a career change is wanting a better worklife balance.Clinician shortages:a major prioritySimilarly,McKinsey reports that 20-38%of nurses in the USA,the UK,Singapore,Japan,France,and
87、 Australia said they were likely to leave their current role in direct patient care in the next year.14 Their reasons for leaving included the pandemic and salary,and reasons to stay included engagement with meaningful work.In 2022,the Clinician of the Future survey showed that most clinicians expec
88、ted staff shortages,with 74%of clinicians agreeing there will be a shortage of nurses and 68%that there will be a shortage of doctors.“Nurse shortages and overall staff shortages are the normal now.Most are retiring within the next 10 years and new graduates seem to not have the drive.”Nurse(USA),20
89、23 surveyClinicians priority concern is needing more colleaguesThose shortages are now having a significant impact on clinicians in many regions,and as a result,this is number one concern globally.The shortage of nurses ranks#1(54%selected it as a top priority)on the list of priorities for the next
90、2-3 years and the shortage of doctors ranks#5(45%).Statement:Tackling the shortage of nursesQuestion:D1.Thinking about your expectations of where healthcare should be in the next two to three years,what are the top 5 priority areas to be addressed?Region and Country%Nurses Select as a Top Priority(n
91、=657)%Doctors Select as a Top Priority(n=1,950)%Clinicians Select as a Top Priority(n=2,607)Base SizesTOTAL2,607Asia Pacific807Europe912934345120China418UK272USA365North AmericaSouth AmericaMid.East&AfricaSignificantly higher or lower than totalSignificantly higher than Role/Region/Country(indicated
92、 by first two letters e.g.AP=APAC)Asia Pacific=APEurope=EUMid.East&Africa=MEANorth America =NASouth America=SAChina=CHUK=UKUSA=USDr=DoctorsNu=Nurses7770559265Low BaseLow Base5193635441756943367870392858617822341859DrMEAAP,NA,SAAP,SACH,USCHSAAP,SAAP,SAAP,SAAP,SASACHCHCHCH,USNurse shortages are a conc
93、ern for most clinicians(54%)globally,but significantly more nurses(70%)than doctors(39%)are saying this is a top priority.There are significant differences between regions too.In Europe and North America,nurse shortages are a bigger concern for clinicians,at 75%and 69%respectively.Again,significantl
94、y more nurses say nurse shortages are a priority,at 92%(Europe)and 78%(North America).Clinician of the Future 202313However,there is relatively little priority given to nurse shortages in China,with 36%of clinicians ranking it as top priority issue.About half(51%)of nurses in China say tackling nurs
95、e shortages is a priority,compared to just 18%of doctors.“The drop in nursing staff compared to the increase in population will be a major problem in the next 20 years.”Doctor(France),2023 survey“The nursing shortage will continue to be a crucial problem unless educational programs increase enrolmen
96、t.”Nurse(USA),2023 surveyWe see a similar pattern for prioritizing the shortage of doctors.Globally,45%of clinicians say tackling the shortage of doctors is a priority issue for the next 2-3 years,with more doctors(48%)than nurses(42%)saying this.Fewer clinicians in Asia Pacific report this as a pri
97、ority(35%).However,at 68%,more clinicians in Europe prioritize this issue,again with more doctors(72%)than nurses(64%)agreeing.This is influenced by significantly higher agreement in the UK,where 78%of clinicians(81%of doctors and 74%of nurses)agree the shortage of doctors should be prioritized.93%o
98、f nurses in the UK and 77%of nurses in the USA say tackling nurse shortages should be a priority.As organizations address shortages,it will be important to consider representation.In the Clinician of the Future Report 2022,63%of clinicians said they expect the healthcare workforce will be more diver
99、se in the future to better represent the local population.Agreement is highest in Asia Pacific(75%),particularly in China(81%).Clinicians want greater diversity in the healthcare workforceWith ongoing inequities in the healthcare workforce and the impact that might have on patient care,this is a pri
100、ority for many clinicians.A quarter(24%)of respondents to the 2023 survey consider encouraging greater diversity in the healthcare workforce to better represent the local population a priority in the next 2-3 years.Echoing expectations of the previous year,this is highest in Asia Pacific(30%),partic
101、ularly among doctors in China(34%).You can explore priorities further in the accompanying full results released with this report.Whats behind the clinician shortages?We need more healthcare workers globally to work with our aging and growing population,which is estimated to reach 9.7 billion in 2050
102、.Yet in many countries,we are seeing negative trends.For example,according to WHO statistics,in the USA,there were almost 1 million fewer nurses in 2020(4.19 million)than there were in 2018(5.13 million).15 And in the UK,the number of GPs has fallen since 2015,with the shortage anticipated to grow t
103、o 8,800 by 2031,accounting for one vacancy in every four positions.16Predictions for clinician shortages vary.Deloitte estimates that we will need 80 million more healthcare workers globally by 2030 to meet the need for 23 skilled health professionals per 10,000 people.17 The WHO estimates we will b
104、e short 10 million health workers in the same timeframe.18In the USA,McKinsey estimates a nursing shortage of 200,000 to 450,000(10-20%)by 2025,19 and according to Association of American Medical Colleges(AAMC)projections,there will be a shortage of between 37,800 and 124,000 physicians by 2034.20 A
105、lthough unemployment in the sector fell over the last year from 803,000 in June 2022 to 733,000 in June 2023,and jobs are being added rapidly,the pressure is still on.21Clinician of the Future 202314According to the AAMC,if healthcare access were equitable across race,health insurance coverage,and g
106、eographic location today,the USA would need 180,400 more physicians.22And despite less concern about shortages in China,there has been evidence of shortages during the COVID-19 pandemic.24 For example,in one report,clinicians in Beijing had to work while infected,as up to 80%of staff had the virus.2
107、5“Physician shortages,already projected to be severe before COVID-19,have almost become a public health emergency.”Dr.Gerald E.Harmon,past president of AMA,speaking at the unveiling of an AMA recovery plan in June 2023.26Lack of control in an unprepared health systemAccording to NHS workforce projec
108、tions,the gap of 103,000 clinicians in 2021/22 will rise to about 179,000 by 2024/25 and settle at 156,000 in 2030/31,leaving the workforce 9%short.23 With the policies currently in place,the NHS might have a shortage of 36,700 nurses in 2030/31.As a result of the shortages,clinicians might be feeli
109、ng the impact of bigger administrative burden,and insufficient compensation and benefits,as evidenced by the Physicians Foundations 2022 survey.27 They are also concerned about other aspects of healthcare that are out of their control:namely,the systems inability to cope in extreme events and the in
110、sufficient practice-readiness of new clinicians.Many clinicians feel theyre working in an unprepared environmentIn the 2023 Clinician of the Future survey,globally,60%of clinicians say their institutions are prepared for health emergencies,with doctors(55%)less likely than nurses(64%)to perceive pre
111、paredness.Clinicians in South America(36%)and Europe(43%)are least likely to believe their institutions are prepared for health emergencies.Agreement is also low among doctors in the UK(43%)and UK clinicians overall(51%).In contrast,agreement is significantly higher in the USA(69%)and highest in Chi
112、na(75%),with 83%of nurses in China agreeing their institutions are prepared for emergency.Less than half of employers have sustainability and environmental targetsGlobally,45%of clinicians agree that their institution had set environmental sustainability targets.Agreement is significantly lower in S
113、outh America(32%),North America(36%)and Europe(39%).Clinicians in Asia Pacific are significantly more likely to agree(55%)with agreement highest in China(58%).There is evidence of this around the world even in environments where there are fewer targets,institutions are laying the groundwork for envi
114、ronmental sustainability.For example,in the UK,the NHS has set itself the target of becoming the worlds first net carbon zero health service through the Greener NHS programme.28This reflects institutions concern for broader issues,which may also be indicative of other dimensions of sustainability,in
115、cluding social aspects such as employee engagement.Clinician of the Future 202315Newly trained clinicians are perceived to be unprepared for clinical practiceStatement:Newly graduated clinicians lack hands-on practical training due to COVID-19,which is impacting care for patientsQuestion:B1.To what
116、extent do you agree or disagree with each of the following statements with regards to healthcare?Please think about your current experience working in healthcare.Region and Country%Nurses Agree(n=657)%Doctors Agree(n=1,950)%Clinicians Agree(n=2,607)Base SizesTOTAL2,607Asia Pacific807Europe9129343451
117、20China418UK272USA365North AmericaSouth AmericaMid.East&AfricaSignificantly higher or lower than totalSignificantly higher than Role/Region/Country(indicated by first two letters e.g.AP=APAC)Asia Pacific=APEurope=EUMid.East&Africa=MEANorth America =NASouth America=SAChina=CHUK=UKUSA=USDr=DoctorsNu=N
118、urses7072766474Low BaseLow Base7675596772556772676767636847637170705965DrEUEU,NAEUEUEU,NAEUEUEUMost clinicians globally(67%)believe their newly trained colleagues lack hands-on training due to COVID-19 pandemic preventing them from physically attending education.Agreement is significantly higher amo
119、ng nurses(72%)than doctors(63%).Although opinion in Europe varied between doctors(47%)and nurses(64%),clinicians in Europe are least likely to agree(55%).In Asia Pacific and South America,a significantly higher proportion of clinicians(72%)believe newly qualified colleagues lack hands-on training.“N
120、urses as well as new doctors are very undertrained today.”Doctor(USA),2023 surveyFuture proofing with trainingConsidering the shortages facing clinicians and the lack of hands-on training in new graduates,sufficient,appropriate training is critical to future proofing the sector.Unprepared graduates
121、put additional strain on supervisors,who want to protect the quality of patient care.And by fast-tracking junior doctors to fill resource gaps left due to the pandemic,some institutions around the world may have exacerbated the situation.29Data from the Association of American Medical Colleges(AAMC)
122、shows medical students in the USA who are satisfied with the quality of their medical education had risen back to 83%in 2022 after a dip during COVID-19.Importantly,nearly all respondents in 2022(97.7%),2021(97.7%)and 2020(98.3%)plan to have a career providing patient care.30So how can we ensure the
123、ir training is adequate?Clinician of the Future 202316Half of clinicians prioritize training,placing it at#2The#2 near-term priority clinicians set in the 2023 Clinician of the Future survey is improving the continuous training of clinicians,with 49%globally considering this a priority for the next
124、2-3 years.Significantly more doctors(56%)than nurses(42%)agree.Concern was highest in South America,with 67%of clinicians considering this a priority(74%doctors,60%nurses)and in Middle East and Africa,with 69%of doctors considering this a priority.Improving the continuous training of clinicians is l
125、ess of a priority in China,with 37%of clinicians agreeing,especially for nurses(24%).While it is lower priority in the UK(39%),almost half(48%)of clinicians in the USA consider it a priority,with significantly more nurses(55%)agreeing.Solution:AI-powered education“The future is bright especially wit
126、h advanced education and job responsibilities in the nursing profession.”Nurse(USA),2023 surveyThere is a potential facilitative role for digital technology,particularly AI,both in the delivery of continuous training and in helping improve newly qualified clinicians readiness.Clinicians see the bene
127、fits of students using AI to learn nursing and medicine.In the 2023 survey,50%consider using AI desirable to learn nursing,compared to 28%undesirable.Similarly,51%consider AI desirable for medical students,compared to 28%undesirable.(See chapter 2 for details.)They note that AI as a training tool co
128、uld help make learning time and cost efficient.“Medical students need to have a wide range of knowledge.AI can expertly give you comprehensive knowledge and can meet learning needs.This technology is convenient,mobile phone and computer can be used,and there is almost no learning cost.It is very con
129、venient.”Doctor(China),2023 surveyHowever,clinicians stress that it should be an adjunct not a replacement to face-to-face learning experiences.Some consider it posing as a danger of replacing hands-on experience,and others are concerned it may teach inaccurate or erroneous information,while hinderi
130、ng critical thinking and decision making in students.“My concern about this is how do we teach healthcare students nursing,medical,or allied professions to assess patients&make judgements if we merely instruct them to input data into an AI tool.”Doctor(Australia),2023 surveyAccording to Deloitte,31
131、healthcare providers are considering digital technology as a tool to increase efficiencies and lower costs,while helping reduce the administrative burden on clinicians.In essence,digital technology,including AI,has the potential to help clinicians do more with less.To make this work,clinicians will
132、need proper training.In the Clinician of the Future Report 2022,we saw that 69%of clinicians expected digital health technologies to be a challenging burden,and 69%already felt overwhelmed by patient data.Any upskilling that takes place will need to be done in a way that does not negatively affect t
133、hem or their work.Clinicians themselves are positive about digital upskilling.In the 2023 survey,73%of clinicians globally consider physicians having more expertise in digital health technology to be desirable,compared to 9%considering this undesirable.Similarly,71%say it is desirable for nurses to
134、be expert in the use of digital health technology,compared to 10%considering this undesirable.(Please see the full research analysis accompanying this report for more detail.)Clinician of the Future 2023171 Mensik H.The largest healthcare worker strikes waged and avoided in 2022.Healthcare Dive.17 J
135、anuary 2023.https:/ Essex R.et al.Strikes,patient outcomes,and the cost of failing to act.BMJ.10 March 2023.https:/doi.org/10.1136/bmj-2022-0727193 The Physicians Foundation.2022 Survey of Americas Physicians Part Three of Three:Assessing the State of Physician Practice and the Strategies to Improve
136、 It.15 November 2022.https:/physiciansfoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/PF22_Brochure-Report_Americas-Physicians-Part-3_V2b.pdf4 Shanafelt,T.D.et al.Changes in Burnout and Satisfaction With Work-Life Integration in Physicians During the First 2 Years of the COVID-19 Pandemic.Mayo Clinic Proc
137、eedings.Volume 97,Issue 12,P2248-2258.December 2022.https:/doi.org/10.1016/j.mayocp.2022.09.0025 Shi,X.et al.Analysis of factors influencing the job satisfaction of medical staff in tertiary public hospitals,China:A cross-sectional study.Frontiers in Psychology.Volume 14.2 February 2023.https:/doi.o
138、rg/10.3389/fpsyg.2023.10481466 National Governors Association.Next Generation Of The Healthcare Workforce Project.7 September 2022.https:/www.nga.org/projects/next-generation-of-the-healthcare-workforce-learning-collaborative/7 Beech,J.et al.Stressed and overworked:What the Commonwealth Funds 2022 I
139、nternational Health Policy Survey of Primary Care Physicians in 10 Countries means for the UK.The Health Foundation.March 2023.https:/www.health.org.uk/publications/reports/stressed-and-overworked8 PwC.PwCs Global Workforce Hopes and Fears Survey 2023.20 June 2023.https:/ National Governors Associat
140、ion.Next Generation Of The Healthcare Workforce Project.7 September 2022.https:/www.nga.org/projects/next-generation-of-the-healthcare-workforce-learning-collaborative/10 Beech,J.et al.Stressed and overworked:What the Commonwealth Funds 2022 International Health Policy Survey of Primary Care Physici
141、ans in 10 Countries means for the UK.The Health Foundation.March 2023.https:/www.health.org.uk/publications/reports/stressed-and-overworked11 The Physicians Foundation.2022 Survey of Americas Physicians Part Three of Three:Assessing the State of Physician Practice and the Strategies to Improve It.15
142、 November 2022.https:/physiciansfoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/PF22_Brochure-Report_Americas-Physicians-Part-3_V2b.pdf12 BMJ Newsroom.More doctors in England and Wales choosing to retire early.BMJ.28 June 2023.https:/ CHG Healthcare.Survey:Nearly half of physicians changed jobs during the
143、 pandemic.27 June 2022.https:/ McKinsey&Company.Around the world,nurses say meaningful work keeps them going.May 2022.https:/ World Health Organization(WHO).The National Health Workforce Accounts Database.https:/apps.who.int/nhwaportal and https:/www.who.int/activities/improving-health-workforce-dat
144、a-and-evidence16 Beech,J.et al.Stressed and overworked:What the Commonwealth Funds 2022 International Health Policy Survey of Primary Care Physicians in 10 Countries means for the UK.The Health Foundation.March 2023 https:/www.health.org.uk/publications/reports/stressed-and-overworked17 Allen,S.2023
145、 Global Health Care Outlook.Deloitte.2022.https:/ World Health Organization(WHO).Health workforce.https:/www.who.int/health-topics/health-workforce#tab=tab_119 McKinsey&Company.Around the world,nurses say meaningful work keeps them going.May 2022.https:/ Association of American Medical Colleges.The
146、Complexities of Physician Supply and Demand:Projections From 2019 to 2034.June 2021.https:/www.aamc.org/media/54681/download21 Bureau of Labor Statistics,U.S.Department of Labor.The Employment Situation June 2023.7 July 2023.https:/www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf22 Association of American Me
147、dical Colleges.Workforce Policy and Priorities.https:/www.aamc.org/advocacy-policy/workforce-policy-and-priorities23 The Health Foundation.NHS workforce projections 2022.July 2022.https:/www.health.org.uk/publications/nhs-workforce-projections-202224 Xue,X.In Rural China,Shortages of Treatment,Docto
148、rs Prove Deadly.Voice of America(VOA).3 February 2023.https:/ Davidson,H.Chinese doctors and nurses reportedly told to work while infected as Covid surges.The Guardian.15 December 2022.https:/ Fox,A.Physician burnout is at an all-time high,says AMA.Healthcare IT News.19 September 2022.https:/ The Ph
149、ysicians Foundation.2022 Survey of Americas Physicians Part Three of Three:Assessing the State of Physician Practice and the Strategies to Improve It.15 November 2022.https:/physiciansfoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/PF22_Brochure-Report_Americas-Physicians-Part-3_V2b.pdf28 NHS Confederatio
150、n.Sustainability in the NHS whats the theory and whats the practice?14 October 2021.https:/www.nhsconfed.org/articles/sustainability-nhs-whats-theory-and-whats-practice29 Ivana Kottasov.Thousands of medical students are being fast-tracked into doctors to help fight the coronavirus.CNN.20 March 2020.
151、https:/ Association of American Medical Colleges.Medical School Year Two Questionnaire 2022:All Schools Summary Report.March 2023.Association of American Medical Colleges.Medical School Year Two Questionnaire 2021:All Schools Summary Report.March 2022.Association of American Medical Colleges.Medical
152、 School Year Two Questionnaire 2020:All Schools Summary Report.March 2021.https:/www.aamc.org/data-reports/students-residents/report/year-two-questionnaire-y2q31 Allen S.2023 Global Health Care Outlook.Deloitte.2022.https:/ 1:ReferencesClinician of the Future 202318Clinician of the FutureHealthTechn
153、ology and AI are empowering cliniciansClinician of the Future 2023Chapter 2Technology and AI are empowering clinicians Clinicians say its desirable for doctors(73%)and nurses(71%)to be digital experts 11%of clinical decisions are currently assisted by AI tools 48%find it desirable for physicians to
154、use AI in clinical decision making 68%find it desirable that patient-collected data informs clinical decisions 55%find telehealth desirable as the main mechanism for routine check-ups 51%consider AI desirable for training doctors,50%for training nursesThe dependency on technology has always been hig
155、h among clinicians,but the appetite for it as an enabling tool is increasing,as it is perceived to help address time pressures,create efficiencies and enhance clinical practice.There is an appetite to use generative AI tools to learn and inform their decision making,and a growing desire among clinic
156、ians to have digital technology expertise,especially as they anticipate using patient collected data to help make decisions.The Future Tech-Savvy Clinician is closer than clinicians may have imagined:many of their predictions for healthcare a decade in the future now seem to be on the 2-3 year horiz
157、on.This includes using generative AI tools,though there are differences of opinion and debate around future use of AI.Digital technology in healthcare covers a broad range of tools,devices and approaches,including telehealth,monitoring devices and wearables,data sharing,and AI.And its moving fast:th
158、e digital landscape has changed significantly since the Clinician of the Future Report 2022.For example,newly appearing technologies were evident in a Deloitte US Center for Health Solutions survey of over 600 physicians.1 In 2022,67%of respondents said they implemented video visits,up from 19%in 20
159、20 and 14%in 2018.Chatbots appeared as a new channel in 2022,though only 4%of physicians reported introducing the technology.Most notably,generative artificial intelligence(AI)has grown exponentially in the last year.ChatGPT,the generative AI platform from Open.ai,reached 100 million users within ju
160、st two months of launch.2 For comparison,it took YouTube 1.5 years and Twitter 5 years to reach that number.Although generative AI is still relatively young on the market,it has attracted attention across sectors,including healthcare,in particular for its ability to automate repetitive tasks,save cl
161、inicians time and create other efficiencies in the healthcare system.As of July 2023,AI adoption rates among 7,502 businesses surveyed by IBM varied geographically,with China far ahead 58%of businesses had adopted AI and 30%were exploring it.In comparison,just 25%of businesses in the USA and 26%in t
162、he UK had adopted AI.3Clinician of the Future 202320A digital tour of our focus countriesThe possibilities of digital technology in healthcare are almost unlimited,so rather than looking in detail at the full global picture,well take a snapshot of some of the projects and approaches happening in our
163、 three focus countries:China,the UK and the USA.ChinaAs part of Chinas 14th Five-Year Plan for National Health Informatization,the government published the Opinions on Promoting the Development of“Internet+Healthcare”outlining its approach to bringing health and tech together in a bid to counter the
164、 countrys weak primary care system.4,5 The intention is for a single platform for China to provide health information that is more unified and authentic,as well as in line with political requirements.Patients and clinicians in China are very familiar with internet-powered healthcare,having used inte
165、rnet hospitals since 2015.6 Just five years later,there were almost 55 million active internet healthcare users,accessing the full range of healthcare services.UKThe National Health Service(NHS)is running projects like the NHS AI Lab to extract the benefits of AI for patients,clinicians and the coun
166、trys wider health ecosystem.7 In particular,the project is supporting technological development for purposes like improving efficiencies,helping the workforce and improving patients experiences of the NHS.8 The NHS is also actively investigating opinions of AI,including with a survey of more than 1,
167、000 people in England.9 This revealed the importance of the patientclinician relationship in deploying AI successfully.USAWith increasing use of digital technology,for example for scanning,diagnosing and monitoring patients,more and more people encounter AI in healthcare.However,there has also been
168、widespread hesitancy reported:in a Pew Research Center survey of over 11,000 people,one-third said using AI to do things like diagnose disease and recommend treatments would lead to worse outcomes.10 Despite this,the USA is ramping up its AI efforts in 2023,with the U.S.General Services Administrati
169、on(GSA)launching the Applied AI Healthcare Challenge11 and Kaiser Permanente launching its$3 million AIM-HI program.12Clinician of the Future 202321The empowered clinician“It seems increasingly clear that AI systems will not replace human clinicians on a large scale,but rather will augment their eff
170、orts to care for patients.”13 Thomas Davenport and Ravi Kalakota,Future Healthcare JournalAs we have seen,there is considerable strain on many healthcare systems,with critical staff shortages projected globally(see chapter 1).By improving efficiencies across the system,from administration tasks to p
171、atient management,technology can reduce the burden on clinicians,potentially reducing stress and increasing job satisfaction.Today,technology is helping clinicians learn and make decisions.It is not displacing or replacing clinicians and their thought processes,but rather supplementing and supportin
172、g them,enabling clinicians to work more efficiently and effectively.While they are curious and sometimes hesitant about the newer generative AI tools,clinicians are open to the possibilities of the evolving technologies at their fingertips and willing to embrace them to improve patient care.This is
173、reflected in the pattern of desirability we see across the responses to this years survey.Overall,clinicians see it as positive to be experts in the use of digital health technology(73%for physicians to be experts and 71%for nurses)a recognition of the accelerating developments in this area.Clinicia
174、ns tend to be more positive about applications of technology in which the tools are supporting them as experts and for more routine tasks.For example,68%find it desirable to use data from wearables to inform their clinical decisions,and nearly half(48%)find it desirable to use generative AI to help
175、them make those decisions.They find it desirable to use telehealth for routine check-ups(55%),which is more than for initial consultations and diagnoses(50%),reflecting the importance of clinicianpatient contact.Question:D3.Thinking about healthcare in 2-3 years time to what extent do you believe th
176、e following are desirable or not desirable?Please consider the future of healthcare within the primary country that you work in.Expectations about healthcare in 2-3 years time%Undesirable%DesirablePhysicians are expert in the use of Digital Health TechnologyNurses are expert in the use of Digital He
177、alth TechnologyHealth data collected by patients is used to inform clinical decisions (e.g.data from wearables such as Fitbit,Apple Watch)Telehealth is the main mechanism for routine check-upsMedical students use AI-powered tools such as ChatGPT/Bard to learn medicineTelehealth is the main mechanism
178、 for initial consultations and diagnosing patientsNursing students use AI-powered tools such as ChatGPT/Bard to learn nursingPhysicians use AI tools such as ChatGPT/Bard to help make clinical decisions9731071146828552851325028502848This point comes through in many of the comments that clinicians sha
179、red in the survey:concern that the use of digital tools does not push the human connection out of clinical work,especially when it comes to the patientclinician partnership.This sentiment is expressed more widely,including in Deloittes 2023 Global Health Care Outlook:“Virtual health can only be effe
180、ctive if it retains a human element to care delivery.”14 The key is for patients to perceive these technologies the way clinicians use them:“as an enhancement to care.”“AI tools can help provide information and effective management and nursing work,but it cannot replace practical experience,interact
181、ion and communication with patients.”Nurse(China),2023 surveyn=2,607Clinician of the Future 202322Digital expertsClinicians have been developing their digital skills for many years,to keep ahead of the increasingly digitalized environment in which they work.Using electronic health records(EHRs),anal
182、yzing data from wearables and connecting with patients via telehealth are all common activities in a clinicians daily work.Most clinicians find it desirable for doctors and nurses to have digital expertiseOverall,most clinicians consider it desirable for physicians(73%)and nurses(71%)to be expert in
183、 the use of digital health technologies.They shared benefits,such as efficiencies in terms of time,resources and costs,and better outcomes for patients.Some believe digital expertise in doctors can make for better decision making.However,9%of respondents find it undesirable to have digital expertise
184、.They shared some potential negative impacts,such as doctors becoming too reliant on technology and losing empathy or the human touch and detracting from nurses patient interactions.Some respondents also pointed out the burden of learning,raising the issue that some nurses are over-stretched and lac
185、k digital knowledge.Notably,79%of doctors in the Middle East and Africa consider it desirable for doctors to have digital expertise.Nurses in North America(78%)and doctors in the Middle East and Africa(78%)find it desirable for nurses to have digital expertise.The picture is less clear cut in China,
186、with 81%of doctors considering expertise in physicians in digital health technology desirable and 4%undesirable,while only 46%of nurses consider it desirable in physicians and 5%undesirable.“Save time,improve efficiency,improve diagnosis and treatment.”Doctor(China),2023 surveyThese findings follow
187、the trajectory we identified in last years Clinician of the Future report,in which 10%of clinicians ranked data analytics/statistical knowledge in the top 3 skills of today,rising to 37%in 10 years.15 The 2023 survey reveals clinicians expectations that they will use digital health technologies more
188、 and more.Most clinicians welcome patients sharing health data collected on wearablesMost clinicians(68%)find it desirable that health data collected by patients is used to inform clinical decisions(e.g.data from wearables such as Fitbit,Apple Watch)in the next 2-3 years.Clinicians in Europe althoug
189、h supportive find this less desirable(61%)and almost one in five(19%)find it undesirable.Conversely,clinicians in North America are more positive about the move towards patient-collected data,with 71%finding it desirable and only 11%undesirable.Nurses in the USA(74%)and doctors in China(75%)are most
190、 likely to find this desirable,while nurses in China(48%)are significantly less enthusiastic.“Remote data acquired in real world settings with more than a snapshot of data available in person,also accurate data rather than only patient report.”Doctor(USA),2023 surveyClinicians in South America are m
191、ost likely to consider the use of wearables to collect data as undesirable,at 19%of doctors and 24%of nurses.Some of the major concerns that clinicians shared are around the inaccuracy of data from wearables and the risk of misdiagnosis.“Possibly incorrectly acquired data,through incorrectly applied
192、 tools and thus incorrect information false diagnoses,false therapies-dissatisfaction on all sides.”Nurse(Austria),2023 surveyNurses in China are similarly unconvinced of the desirability of their own expertise in digital health technology,with 48%considering it desirable,compared to a global averag
193、e of 71%of clinicians.Clinician of the Future 202323Using scientific research effectively in clinical practice is a priority,especially in ChinaEvidence is helpful in countering misinformation and inaccuracy,and this is reflected in clinicians priorities,The rise of telehealthIn the wake of the COVI
194、D-19 pandemic,in-person appointments are possible again,but telehealth has become a mainstay of modern healthcare.In the 2022 survey,63%of clinicians expect most of their consultations to be remote in 10 years.This years survey shows progression along that path:76%of interactions are still in-person
195、,but clinicians expect this to be closer to 64%in 5 years.However,this recognition is not without reservation:in 2022,51%of clinicians agreed telehealth will negatively impact their ability to demonstrate empathy with patients.Half of clinicians find telehealth for check-ups desirable,but opinion is
196、 dividedCompared to the use of wearables for collecting patient data,clinician opinion is more divided over the use of telehealth.Globally,55%of clinicians find it desirable for telehealth to be the main mechanism for routine check-ups in the next 2-3 years,while 28%find it undesirable.The increasin
197、g use of telehealth has implications both positive and negative for accessibility;see Chapter 4 for survey respondents views on this.Division is greatest in North America,where 44%find it desirable and 40%undesirable.Among doctors in North America,more find it undesirable(45%)than desirable(39%).Cli
198、nicians who find telehealth as a main mechanism for routine check-ups most desirable are nurses in South America(65%)and doctors in China(69%).Many clinicians welcome telehealth as an efficient way to connect with patients routinely,but they are mindful it wont be accessible for all patients and may
199、 hinder rapport.They also see the benefits of convenience and efficiency.“Physical examination cannot be done and there is the loss of human touch which is vital in healthcare.”Doctor(Philippines),2023 survey“Screening of patients on telephones will reduce the burden on healthcare provider and healt
200、h sector to focus on patients more desirable for health care”.Doctor(India),2023 surveyClinicians are less enthusiastic about telehealth for diagnosisClinicians are even more divided about the use of telehealth as the main mechanism for initial consultations and diagnosing patients in the near futur
201、e:50%of clinicians globally find this desirable versus 32%undesirable.This highlights some of the concerns of telehealth,such as missing important information for diagnosis that can only be collected in-person.“Many surgical specialties require face to face consultation for accurate examination find
202、ings.”Doctor(UK),2023 survey“The information obtained remotely is not comprehensive;doctor-patient relationship isnt strong.”Doctor(China),2023 surveyThere is a clear difference of opinion between doctors and nurses in Europe and North America:doctors find it more undesirable(53%in Europe and 52%in
203、North America)than desirable(33%in Europe and 32%in North America),while more nurses find it desirable(45%in Europe and North America)than undesirable(36%in Europe and 39%in North America).Similar to the use of telehealth for routine check-ups,its use in initial consultations is most desirable among
204、 nurses in South America(65%)and doctors in China(71%).This may reflect developments in Chinas internet healthcare,where remote triage is helping reduce burden on the system.16with utilizing scientific research in clinical practice more effectively ranking#3 on the list.Clinicians in China find this
205、 most important(52%),with concern lower in the USA(42%)and UK(32%).Globally,46%of clinicians ranked this as a priority,with doctors(51%)more likely to do so than nurses(41%).Clinician of the Future 202324“Through the initial screening can greatly reduce the problem of insufficient medical resources.
206、”Nurse(China),2023 survey“Triage and prioritisation of patients.Optimise time with patient and reduce hospital visits.”Doctor(Spain),2023 surveyClinicians recognize the need for virtual consultations.Despite some reservations about the impact of telehealth on the clinicianpatient partnership,more th
207、an a quarter(27%)of clinicians recognize managing consultations between clinicians and patients remotely as a top-five priority in the next 2-3 years.This is significantly higher among doctors(30%)than nurses(23%).And in China,almost half(48%)of doctors consider this a priority.Artificial intelligen
208、ce as an assistant in decision making“The era of AI in medicine,as well as new treatment options is coming.”Doctor(Serbia),2023 surveyArtificial intelligence(AI)and machine learning are developing at an unprecedented rate.AI tools can help clinicians analyze data,including medical images,make diagno
209、ses and put personalized treatment plans together.“AI can empower a trained physician to consider wider differential diagnosis and management plan”.Doctor(UK),2023 surveyLast year,about half(56%)of clinicians predicted they would be using AI-based tools in clinical decision making in a decade.The mo
210、st notable development since our last report has been in the field of generative AI.ChatGPT(OpenAI)17,18Bard(Google)19,20Launched:30 November 2022Launched:21 March 2023Users:100 millionUsers:30 millionCoverage:82%of the world(not China)Coverage:180 countries(including China)Top users:USA(12.31%),Ind
211、ia(7.6%),Japan(4.26%)Top users:US(62.6%),UK(8.29%),China(3.22%)Language model:GPT-3.5Language model:LaMDA(Language Model for Dialogue Applications)Data:Up to 2021Data:currentInformation correct as of July 2023Responses to the questions about generative AI in the 2023 Clinician of the Future survey g
212、ive a sense of how fast it is progressing;11%of clinical decisions are currently assisted by generative AI.Clinician of the Future 202325Few clinical decisions are made using generative AI,but this will shift in the futureWe are already seeing differences in how clinicians use generative AI tools li
213、ke ChatGPT and Bard:use of these tools to help clinical decisions is significantly higher among nurses(16%of their decisions)than doctors(7%of their decisions)globally.Use also differs greatly between regions.Significantly fewer clinical decisions use AI in Europe(6%)and North America(7%).However,in
214、 Asia Pacific,use of AI is much higher:19%of clinical decisions,including 28%of nurses decisions,use these tools today.Looking at the three focus countries,use of generative AI for clinical decision making is much more common in China(19%of clinical decisions)compared to the UK and USA(8%).Although
215、use is higher among nurses in all three cases,it is notably high in China (26%of clinical decisions).Statement:Your clinical decisions are assisted by AI tools such as ChatGPT/BardQuestion:B5.Today,what proportion of (Average calculated from response bands.)Region and Country%Nurses Current Experien
216、ce(n=657)%Doctors Current Experience(n=1,950)%Current Experience(n=2,607)Base SizesTOTAL2,607Asia Pacific807Europe912394345120China418UK272USA365North AmericaSouth AmericaMid.East&Africa91628713Low BaseLow Base26105111967919887946889126DrEU,NA,SAUK,USEU,NAEU,NA,SAEUEUEUUK,USUK,USSignificantly higher
217、 or lower than totalSignificantly higher than Role/Region/Country(indicated by first two letters e.g.AP=APAC)Asia Pacific=APEurope=EUMid.East&Africa=MEANorth America =NASouth America=SAChina=CHUK=UKUSA=USDr=DoctorsNu=NursesThis could indicate the potential the technology has to reduce administrative
218、 burden on clinicians,especially nurses.From voice-activated assistance systems to Internet of Things(IoT)devices,AI-powered technology could make a big difference while nurses continue to face shortages.21“Spend less time on papers doing the bureaucratic part and can have a better reading about the
219、 patients conditions.”Nurse(Brazil),2023 survey“So that by the time they start work,they are already knowledgeable and equipped with the skills needed in using AI-powered tools.”Nurse(UK),2023 surveyLooking at desirability of clinicians to use AI in their clinical decision making,we can expect the c
220、urrent usage to increase over time.Indeed,the infancy of the technology was one of the concerns respondents raised.“These tools are not yet based on scientific evidence,do not provide references,and are not yet reliable.”Doctor(Brazil),2023 surveyClinician of the Future 202326About half of clinician
221、s find it desirable to use AI in future decision makingIn Europe,opinion is more divided,with 39%finding future clinical use of generative AI desirable,compared to 33%undesirable.More European doctors(45%)than nurses(33%)find it desirable.Similarly,in North America 42%of clinicians find it desirable
222、 and 31%find it undesirable.However,in this region,doctors(39%)are less likely than nurses(45%)to find it desirable.This concern among clinicians in the USA is echoed in other studies,for example,over three-quarters consider it very important(56%)or somewhat important(22%)for technology companies an
223、d governments to manage AI applications in disease diagnosis carefully.22When asked about physicians using these tools in clinical decision making in the future,almost half(48%)of clinicians globally find it desirable,while more than one-quarter(28%)find it undesirable.Chinas clinicians are most pos
224、itive:fewest clinicians responded that they find the future use of AI undesirable in China(17%),particularly among doctors(15%),who are also significantly more likely to find it desirable(61%).“Technologies like AI and big data used as auxiliary tools will reduce the chance of misdiagnosis and error
225、s.”Doctor(China),2023 surveyStatement:Physicians use AI tools such as ChatGPT/Bard to help make clinical decisionsQuestion:D3.Thinking about healthcare in 2-3 years time to what extent do you believe the following are desirable or not desirable?Please consider the future of healthcare within the pri
226、mary country that you work in.Region and Country%Nurses Considering(n=657)%Doctors Considering(n=1,950)%Clinicians Considering(n=2,607)UndesirableUndesirableUndesirableDesirableDesirableDesirableBase SizesTOTAL2,607Asia Pacific807Europe912394345120China418UK272USA365North AmericaSouth AmericaMid.Eas
227、t&AfricaSignificantly higher or lower than totalSignificantly higher than Role/Region/Country(indicated by first two letters e.g.AP=APAC)Asia Pacific=APEurope=EUMid.East&Africa=MEANorth America =NASouth America=SAChina=CHUK=UKUSA=USDr=DoctorsNu=NursesLow BaseLow Base484947282829555259232324394533333
228、2334239453132305555545732323127536145171522343335333729424045303130NA,EUEUEUNA,EUNA,EUNA,EUNA,EUNA,EUUK,USUK,USUKSignificantly more clinicians find the future prospect of AI use desirable in Asia Pacific(55%)and South America(55%),while fewer show concern in Asia Pacific(23%undesirable)than South Am
229、erica(32%undesirable).Clinician of the Future 202327Whos in control?One of the concerns raised was related to the role of AI.Clinicians are more positive when talking about it as an enabling tool under the control of the clinician.But if that control were to shift,for example by leading the diagnosi
230、s or even being used as the clinical expert in partnership with a non-expert,clinicians are more critical.“Eventually utilizing AI will help improve patient flow and effectiveness of visits;but I am somewhat concerned that healthcare corporations will use AI to save costs by pairing AI with non-phys
231、icians,rather than utilizing AI with physicians.”Doctor(USA),2023 surveyThis concern is echoed in patient feedback.There was backlash in the USA when it emerged that some healthcare organizations were using ChatGPT to draft clinician messages without telling patients.23 People are keen to know they
232、are in safe hands and many prefer those to be real.According to the Patients Association,4 in 10 patients believed a face-to-face consultation would have been better,compared to 1 in 10 favoring telehealth.24Although many patients recognize the value of technology for improving their health or incre
233、asing system efficiencies,they are much less convinced about it supporting clinical decisions.In an NHS survey of over 1,000 patients,41%would trust AI to help doctors and nurses make better decisions.25 But respondents number one option for increasing their confidence was “Easy access to speak to a
234、 doctor or nurse if I dont trust the results.”Similarly,in a survey of patients in Germany,although half(56%)recognized the benefit of AI,20%would refuse to be treated using AI-based applications,and almost all(96%)agreed AI needs to be controlled by the clinician.26Will AI support clinician trainin
235、g in the future?Clinicians often lack the right training to keep up with the evolving demands in healthcare,including the rise of digital health technologies.As we saw in chapter 1,many clinicians now consider continuous training a priority.In the Clinician of the Future Report 2022,we noted that th
236、e body of medical knowledge continues to grow,and combined with increasing specialization,which is often overwhelming,clinicians can no longer store everything in their memories.This has implications for training,which AI could help address.In the 2023 survey,clinicians identified many advantages to
237、 using AI tools in medical and nursing education,including increased efficiency and decreased cost,as well as supporting in-depth knowledge acquisition.But in line with use of AI in clinical decision making,global opinion is split on its desirability in clinician training,both for medical students a
238、nd nurses.Following the pattern of AI being more accepted in China,desirability of AI in medical training is highest among doctors in China,at 72%.Clinician of the Future 202328Clinicians in China are much more likely to find AI in education desirableStatement:Nursing students use AI-powered tools s
239、uch as ChatGPT/Bard to learn nursingQuestion:D3.Thinking about healthcare in 2-3 years time to what extent do you believe the following are desirable or not desirable?Please consider the future of healthcare within the primary country that you work in.Region and CountryBase SizesTOTAL2,607Asia Pacif
240、ic807Europe912394345120China418UK272USA365North AmericaSouth AmericaMid.East&AfricaSignificantly higher or lower than totalSignificantly higher than Role/Region/Country(indicated by first two letters e.g.AP=APAC)Asia Pacific=APEurope=EUMid.East&Africa=MEANorth America =NASouth America=SAChina=CHUK=U
241、KUSA=USDr=DoctorsNu=Nurses%Nurses Considering(n=657)%Doctors Considering(n=1,950)%Clinicians Considering(n=2,607)UndesirableUndesirableUndesirableDesirableDesirableDesirableLow BaseLow Base5050502828275955632121204044373435323833433642336057635227282726606555131117343435384332383443354132NA,EUNA,EUU
242、KNA,EUNA,EUNANA,EUNA,EUNAUK,USUK,USThe use of AI in nurse training is most welcomed by nurses in Asia Pacific and South America(63%desirable)and when looking at the focus countries least welcomed by doctors in the UK(43%undesirable)and USA(41%undesirable).Again,fewest clinicians in China find the us
243、e of AI in nurse training undesirable(13%),though the enthusiasm is more tempered than for medical student training(60%desirable).“Medical students will make maximum use of AI;they will save time and money and learn more advanced things that may not be available in the institution.”Doctor(Oman),2023
244、 survey“Medical students should learn the thinking process in basic Medicine.They shouldnt only seek the result.”Doctor(Japan),2023 survey“Human contact is essential for medical training and the exercise of medicine.”Doctor(Luxembourg),2023 surveyGlobally,51%of clinicians consider the use of AI desi
245、rable for training medical students,and 50%for training nurses.In both cases,28%of clinicians consider it undesirable.For medical student training,opinion is most split in Europe and North America.In both cases,more clinicians find it desirable(41%in Europe and 40%in North America)than undesirable(3
246、4%in Europe and 36%in North America).Looking at the focus countries,the UK is least enthusiastic about the future use of AI in medical training,with more clinicians finding it undesirable(38%)than desirable(33%).Doctors in North America(43%)and Europe(33%)find the use of AI in medical training least
247、 desirable and doctors in China find it most desirable(72%).When it comes to use of AI in nursing education,clinicians in Asia Pacific(59%desirable)and South America(60%desirable)are most positive,while those in North America(36%undesirable)and Europe(34%undesirable)are most concerned.Clinician of t
248、he Future 202329Solution:clinician-controlled AI built on trust“We can only achieve higher quality,lower cost health care by augmenting the physician-patient relationship with AI at the point of care.”27 Ronen Lavi,writing in RISEDigital health technology and AI will continue to evolve,and their use
249、 in healthcare will expand in the coming years.Their impact will depend on how they are developed and used.In order to reach the possible future we outlined where data is used for better patient outcomes,there is less administrative burden and more time for patients and learning,and the clinicianpat
250、ient relationship is maintained virtually there is still work to do.Training in the use of digital health technologies and in soft skills will continue to be critical,for example.In the recent Digital Doctor Survey of 3,428 physicians,62%shared their concern about having a lack of training.28Current
251、ly,digital health technologies and AI are welcomed more in China than the UK and USA.This is reflected across all sectors:according to PwCs Hopes and Fears research,people in the Asia Pacific region are considerably more positive about the benefits of AI compared to those in the UK:41%of respondents
252、 in Asia Pacific said AI will increase their productivity and efficiency at work,29 compared to just 19%in the UK.30This was also a pattern in the 2022 Clinician of the Future survey,which revealed less enthusiasm for the potential of digital health in the USA and Europe.Indeed,80%of clinicians in t
253、he USA agreed it will be a challenging burden in 10 years.Improved systems may help address this.With efficient,integrated systems and the time to learn them clinicians around the world may be able to use and benefit more from technology.To ensure it is beneficial for all,clinicians need to remain i
254、n control of the tools,and there should be transparency around this,particularly towards patients.Clinician of the Future 2023301 Allen S.2023 Global Health Care Outlook.Deloitte.2022.https:/ Ruby D.30+Detailed ChatGPT Statistics Users&Facts(July 2023).Demand Sage.7 July 2023.https:/ IBM.IBM Global
255、AI Adoption Index 2022.May 2022.https:/ Wang W.Y.China digitizing health care up and beyond Covid-19.Asia Times.2 March 2023.https:/ Cheng T.C.et al.Technology Platforms Are Revolutionizing Health Care Service Delivery in China.NEJM Catalyst.23 February 2022.https:/catalyst.nejm.org/doi/abs/10.1056/
256、CAT.21.04146 Cheng T.C.et al.Technology Platforms Are Revolutionizing Health Care Service Delivery in China.NEJM Catalyst.23 February 2022.https:/catalyst.nejm.org/doi/abs/10.1056/CAT.21.04147 NHS.The NHS AI Lab.https:/transform.england.nhs.uk/ai-lab/8 NHS.The National Strategy for AI in Health and
257、Social Care.https:/transform.england.nhs.uk/ai-lab/ai-lab-programmes/the-national-strategy-for-ai-in-health-and-social-care/9 NHS.Surveying public perceptions of AI.https:/transform.england.nhs.uk/ai-lab/ai-lab-programmes/the-national-strategy-for-ai-in-health-and-social-care/surveying-public-percep
258、tions-of-ai/10 Tyson A.et al.60%of Americans Would Be Uncomfortable With Provider Relying on AI in Their Own Health Care.Pew Research Center.22 February 2023.https:/www.pewresearch.org/science/2023/02/22/60-of-americans-would-be-uncomfortable-with-provider-relying-on-ai-in-their-own-health-care/11 U
259、.S.General Services Administration(GSA).GSA launches AI Challenge to drive better healthcare outcomes.9 February 2023.https:/www.gsa.gov/about-us/newsroom/news-releases/gsa-launches-ai-challenge-to-drive-better-healthcare-outcomes-0209202312 Kaiser Permanente.Kaiser Permanente announces new grant pr
260、ogram for artificial intelligence,machine learning in health care.17 May 2023.https:/permanente.org/kaiser-permanente-announces-new-grant-program-for-artificial-intelligence-machine-learning-in-health-care/13 Davenport T.and Kalakota R.The potential for artificial intelligence in healthcare.Future H
261、ealthc J.6(2):94-98.June 2019.https:/doi.org/10.7861%2Ffuturehosp.6-2-9414 Allen S.2023 Global Health Care Outlook.Deloitte.2022.https:/ Elsevier.Clinician of the Future Report 2022.Chapter 2,P47.March 2022.https:/ Cheng T.C.et al.Technology Platforms Are Revolutionizing Health Care Service Delivery
262、 in China.NEJM Catalyst.23 February 2022.https:/catalyst.nejm.org/doi/abs/10.1056/CAT.21.041417 ChatGPT.https:/ Ruby D.30+Detailed ChatGPT Statistics Users&Facts(July 2023).Demand Sage.7 July 2023.https:/ Mark.Google Bard Statistics&facts July 2023.MLYearning.18 July 2023.https:/www.mlyearning.org/g
263、oogle-bard-statistics-facts/20 Google.Bard.https:/ Rue N.How AI is Changing the Future of Nursing.IoT For All.25 January 2022.https:/ Beets B.et al.Surveying Public Perceptions of Artificial Intelligence in Health Care in the United States:Systematic Review.J Med Internet Res.4;25:e40337.April 2023.
264、https:/doi.org/10.2196/4033723 Hsu J.Doctors are using AI to draft messages without telling patients.New Scientist.9 May 2023.https:/ The Patients Association.Patient Experience Winter Survey.March 2023.https:/www.patients-association.org.uk/Handlers/Download.ashx?IDMF=290d57d3-9737-4dec-b44c-7bce5d
265、5f289b25 NHS.Surveying public perceptions of AI.https:/transform.england.nhs.uk/ai-lab/ai-lab-programmes/the-national-strategy-for-ai-in-health-and-social-care/surveying-public-perceptions-of-ai/26 Fritsch S.J.et al.Attitudes and perception of artificial intelligence in healthcare:A cross-sectional
266、survey among patients.Digital Health.8 August 2022.https:/doi.org/10.1177/2055207622111677227 Lavi R.Unlocking the potential of AI in value-based care.Rise.10 February 2023.https:/www.risehealth.org/insights-articles/unlocking-the-potential-of-ai-in-value-based-care/28 Sooch R.Ipsos finds doctors re
267、main wary over patient use of health data,but are excited about AI in diagnosis.Ipsos.29 March 2023.https:/ PwC.Asia Pacific Workforce Hopes and Fears Survey 2023.June 2023.https:/ PwC.UK Workforce Hopes and Fears Survey 2023.June 2023.https:/www.pwc.co.uk/services/human-resource-services/insights/u
268、k-hopes-and-fears-survey.htmlChapter 2:ReferencesClinician of the Future 202331Clinician of the FutureHealthKnowledge and technology are transforming the clinicianpatient relationshipClinician of the Future 2023Chapter 3Knowledge and technology are transforming the clinicianpatient relationshipClini
269、cians think that:Two in five(41%)patients are health literate today Half(49%)of patients will be health literate in 2028 Knowledge of social determinants of health(SDOH):35%today 48%in 5 years Active management of health:38%today 49%in 5 years Use of monitoring tools:27%today 45%in 5 years 61%of cli
270、nicians have enough time to provide good patient careThere is a trend towards patient empowerment,with clinicians expecting their health literacy,knowledge of social determinants of health(SDOH)and proactive health management to grow in the coming five years.As the use of wearables increases and int
271、eractions become more virtual,clinicians may need to upskill.This progress toward the Future Partner for Health that we envisioned in the Clinician of the Future Report 2022 will be supported by developments in digital technology,including artificial intelligence(AI).“The clinician of the future wil
272、l encounter the patient of the future,who will be more informed,engaged and empowered.”Clinician of the Future Report 2022In the Clinician of the Future Report 2022,we saw a strong trend toward patient empowerment.Clinicians were already observing a shift,with 56%globally agreeing that patients had
273、become more empowered to manage their own conditions over the preceding decade.The future,they predicted,would see the clinicianpatient relationship become more of a partnership.Despite foreseeing that patients would be more likely to manage their own health,clinicians recognized the continued impor
274、tance of soft skills like listening and being empathetic,and the need for sufficient time with their patients.Clinician of the Future 202333The rise of NCDs was one of a number of drivers of change that emerged in the Clinician of the Future Report 2022.With increasing empowerment comes greater cons
275、umer behavior,and 90%of clinicians in 2022 agreed that quality measures,including patient satisfaction,had driven change in healthcare in the last decade.Most clinicians(86%)also agreed that the rise of patients informed about their health conditions was driving healthcare change.In the 2023 survey,
276、we took the pulse of health literacy and other indicators of patient empowerment,showing the progress and projections.Question:B5.Today,what proportion of (Average calculated from response bands.)Question:D2.With regards to your expectations around patients and healthcare in the next 5 years,what pr
277、oportion of(Average calculated from response bands.)Proportion of.%Expect in 5 Years%TodayYour patient interactions are face-to-faceYour patients are health literateYour patients actively maintain their health(e.g.good nutrition and regular exercise)Your patients are knowledgeable of their Social De
278、terminates of Health(SDOH)Your patients use monitoring tools to assess their health and well-being(Including:wearables)64494948457641383527As we saw in Chapter 1,61%of clinicians believe they have enough time to provide good patient care,up from 52%in 2022.This provides an important foundation as cl
279、inicians move towards a stronger patient empowerment paradigm.The shift to patient-centered or patient-managed healthcare is a necessary response to the already overburdened healthcare systems around the world.With our growing,aging population,the number of people with chronic health conditions and
280、noncommunicable diseases(NCDs)is rising.In the empowered patient scenario,in which the clinician is a partner for health,patients are often looking for two distinct types of support:Empathetic clinicians employ their soft skills,such as listening and empathy,to support patients emotionally and provi
281、de comfort as well as more clinical support like diagnoses and treatments.Functional patients are informed and self-managing,and clinicians can support them functionally with regular check-ins(often facilitated digitally.n=2,607Clinician of the Future 202334Progress toward improved health literacyHe
282、alth literacy:In this report we define it as the degree to which individuals have the capacity to obtain,process and understand basic health information and services needed to make appropriate health decisions.Clinicians say theres room for improvement in patients health literacyLooking at the situa
283、tion today,on average,clinicians say 41%of their patients are health literate.Doctors estimated this percentage to be lower(37%)and nurses higher(44%).In Europe(37%)and South America(31%),clinicians estimated patients to be a little less health literate.Clinicians in Asia Pacific estimated more of t
284、heir patients are health literate today(45%),with nurses estimates high(51%).Agreement among clinicians is fairly consistent across the three key markets of China(45%),the UK(45%)and the USA(42%).Clinicians expect health literacy to rise in the next five yearsLooking to the future,clinicians expect
285、their patients will be more health literate.Globally,clinicians expect nearly half(49%)of their patients to be health literate by 2028.Echoing the current pattern,doctors are less optimistic(45%)and nurses more optimistic(52%)about future health literacy globally.Clinicians in Europe are least optim
286、istic,expecting 41%of their patients to be health literate in the next five years(38%for doctors and 44%for nurses).Clinicians in Asia Pacific are most optimistic about their patients future health literacy,expecting 56%of their patients to be health literate(doctors estimating 52%and nurses 60%).St
287、atement:Your patients are health literateStatement:Patients will be health literateQuestion:B5.Today,what proportion of (Average calculated from response bands.)Question:D2.With regards to your expectations around patients and healthcare in the next 5 years,what proportion of(Average calculated from
288、 response bands.)Significantly higher or lower than totalAsia Pacific=AP Europe=EU Mid.East&Africa=MEA North America =NA South America=SA China=CH UK=UK USA=USDr=Doctors Nu=NursesSignificantly higher than Role/Region/Country(indicated by first two letters e.g.AP=APAC)Region and Country%Clinicians Cu
289、rrent Experience(n=2,607)Base SizesTOTAL2,607Asia Pacific807Europe912394345120China418UK272USA365North AmericaSouth AmericaMid.East&Africa4145374231454442Low BaseEU,SASAEU,SARegion and Country%Clinicians Expect in 5 Years(n=2,607)Base SizesTOTAL2,607Asia Pacific807Europe912394345120China418UK272USA3
290、65North AmericaSouth AmericaMid.East&Africa4956414542574646Low BaseEU,NA,SAUK,USClinician of the Future 202335These estimates of health literacy reflect other findings.In a 2022 study of the link between health literacy and outcomes,patients were classified adequate health literacy(50%of patients),3
291、2%inadequate and 18%marginal.1 Patients with inadequate health literacy are more likely to visit the emergency room,thus improving health literacy can be an effective step not only to improve outcomes for patients but also to prevent further overstretching healthcare systems.Indeed,by one estimate,s
292、ocial determinants of health(SDOH)account for about 80%of health outcomes.2Patients with the lowest(and highest)health literacy have also been shown to have the lowest trust in healthcare systems.3 Raising the lower literacy level could therefore help increase trust and strengthen the clinicianpatie
293、nt partnership.Making progress in health literacy from todays 4 in 10 to the futures 5 in 10 health literate patients is not only in patients hands clinicians play an important role in facilitating improvement.For example,research shows that clinicians can help improve a patients health literacy by
294、using less jargon.4Improving health literacy is not a simple or indeed a linear process.As we noted in the Clinician of the Future Report 2022,there are many factors associated with access to healthcare and health literacy,broadly defined as social determinants of health or social drivers of health(
295、SDOH).5Understanding SDOH to boost empowermentResearch has linked better health literacy to younger age(below 30),living in urban areas,and having a higher education,and inadequate health literacy to older age(above 59),primary education,and divorced parents.6 There are other factors that need to be
296、 considered:a study of health literacy disparities involving over 80 million people in the USA showed that more participants from minority immigrant groups had lower health literacy.7“Immigrant status has a strong,negative,direct effect on HL proficiency among racial/ethnic minorities in the USA.Thi
297、s may be a result of barriers that prevent equitable access to resources that improve proper HL health literacy proficiency.”8Becoming more health literate requires a better understanding of SDOH,and clinicians expect more of their patients to have an awareness of their own SDOH in the coming five y
298、ears.This in turn will support the move to more self-management and empowerment.Social Determinants of Health(SDOH)are defined in this report as non-medical factors that influence health the conditions of daily life that impact quality of life outcomes.Clinicians often have little impact on SDOH.For
299、 this reason,in the 2022 Clinician of the Future survey,22%of respondents identified being restricted to treating patients when theyre already ill as a top-3 priority challenge,making the move to value-based care even more important.9Clinicians say one in three patients are knowledgeable about their
300、 SDOHClinicians globally estimate about one-third(35%)of their patients are knowledgeable about their SDOH,with doctors estimating lower rates(31%)than nurses(39%).Clinicians in China estimate a higher proportion of their patients are knowledgeable of their SDOH(44%)than clinicians globally(doctors
301、in China estimate 38%,nurses in China estimate 53%).Patient knowledge of SDOH is considered lowest in South America(26%)and nurses estimate patients knowledge lower still(24%).There is a similar picture in Europe(30%),though this time its the doctors who estimate lower knowledge(26%).Given the impor
302、tance of understanding SDOH to better manage ones own health,its good news that clinicians expect an improvement in the next five years.Clinician of the Future 202336Clinicians expect about half of patients will know about their SDOH by 2028Fast-forward to 2028 and clinicians expect almost half(48%)
303、of their patients to be knowledgeable of their SDOH.Again,doctors are less optimistic(44%)than nurses(51%).However,this shift of some 10%is mostly influenced by clinicians in Asia Pacific,and China in particular.In APAC,clinicians expect 56%of their patients to be aware of their SDOH by 2028(doctors
304、 51%,nurses 61%),rising to 59%in China(doctors 55%,nurses 62%).The picture is less optimistic in the UK and USA(42%).Progress will be critical to improving the wider healthcare system,including improving patient outcomes and working conditions for clinicians.In part one of the 2022 Survey of America
305、s Physicians,80%of respondents said the USA can only improve outcomes and reduce costs by addressing SDOH.10 Nearly all physicians reported that their patients health outcomes are influenced by at least one SDOH.In the survey,physicians identified several main strategies to address SDOH,including cr
306、eating opportunities(time and financial)for physicians to direct efforts,and supporting patients to do manage their own health,including with technology.A step forward in proactive health managementIn the 2022 Clinician of the Future survey,56%of clinicians agreed their patients will be more empower
307、ed to take care of their own health in the future.With positive momentum evident in this years pulse survey,proactive health management is moving in the right direction.Clinicians think more than one-third of patients proactively manage their healthClinicians globally estimate that 38%of their patie
308、nts actively maintain their health today,though doctors estimate this to be significantly lower,at 34%.In a similar pattern to health literacy,clinicians in Asia Pacific estimate higher proactive health management among their patients(43%),with nurses most optimistic(50%).Estimates are highest in Ch
309、ina(clinicians 46%,doctors 42%,nurses 50%).Clinicians in Europe are less positive about their patients self-management today,estimating only 33%of patients actively maintain their health;this was even lower in South America(27%).Clinicians in North America(36%)are just below the global average.Clini
310、cians expect about half of patients to embrace managing their own healthClinicians expect the picture to improve somewhat in the next five years:they estimate that about half(49%)of patients will actively maintain their health in 2028,with doctors least optimistic(46%)and nurses more so(53%).Again,e
311、xpectations are significantly higher in Asia Pacific,at 56%of patients(doctors estimate 53%,nurses 60%).The estimate is similar in China(57%),with less of a difference between roles(doctors 57%,nurses 58%).Enthusiasm for future proactive health management among patients in China reflects the country
312、s move towards preventive healthcare in an increasingly value-based system.11(See chapter 4 for details.)Expectations are lowest in Europe(total 42%,doctors 39%,nurses 45%)and South America(total 43%,doctors 42%,nurses 44%).In our other focus countries,clinicians in the UK had relatively lower expec
313、tations at 43%.Responses are similar among clinicians in the USA,who estimate that 45%of patients will manage their health.More details are provided in the accompanying full results released with this report.This progress could have knock-on effects on outcomes,if clinicians expectations from the 20
314、22 survey come to fruition.Where applicable,60%of clinicians believed that patients who demonstrate that they actively maintain their health will be rewarded with lower health insurance premiums,which would in turn increase access to healthcare.12Passive healthDisease-centeredPatient-centeredSingle
315、disease careHealth-centeredPeople-centeredMultiple services(across SDOH)Total health approachSingle service(medical)Proactive health13Clinician of the Future 202337A turning point for wearablesThese trends towards enhanced health literacy and knowledge of SDOH are driven and supported by the increas
316、ed use of health monitoring technologies,such as wearables.In the Clinician of the Future Report 2022,77%of clinicians expect real-time patient analytics to be critical to personalized care in the future.Taking the pulse of progress now shows the use of monitoring tools is also moving in the right d
317、irection to continue enabling patient empowerment.Wearables are an increasingly common feature of patients health managementMore than a quarter(27%)of patients use monitoring tools,including wearables,to assess their health and well-being,according to clinicians globally.Significantly more patients
318、are thought to use monitoring tools in Asia Pacific(33%),particularly in China(36%),and in both cases,nurses estimate use to be significantly higher than the average(46%APAC,48%China).Clinicians expect to see every other patient using monitoring toolsGlobally,clinicians expect 45%of their patients t
319、o be using tools like wearables in five years time,with doctors estimating significantly fewer(41%)and nurses significantly more(50%).There is a similar pattern to the current picture of patients use of wearables,with lower usage expected in future in Europe(42%)and South America(37%).In Asia Pacifi
320、c,expectation is higher(50%)and highest in China(52%).Nurses in the Asia Pacific region expect more patients to use wearables(56%)than doctors do(45%).“Monitoring heart rate,and glucose could be very advantageous to manage chronic heart disease and diabetes.”Doctor(USA),2023 surveyIt is worth noting
321、 that in some cases,these percentages are double the current estimated usage.For example,clinicians in Europe expect twice as many of their patients to use wearables in five years(42%)than today(21%).This is indicative of a strong trend towards patient-managed health.Statement:Your patients use moni
322、toring tools to assess their health and well-being(incl.wearables)Statement:Patients will use monitoring tools to assess their health and well-being(incl.wearables)Question:B5.Today,what proportion of (Average calculated from response bands.)Question:D2.With regards to your expectations around patie
323、nts and healthcare in the next 5 years,what proportion of(Average calculated from response bands.)Region and Country%Clinicians Current Experience(n=2,607)Base SizesTOTAL2,607Asia Pacific807Europe912394345120China418UK272USA365North AmericaSouth AmericaMid.East&AfricaSignificantly higher or lower th
324、an totalRegion and Country%Clinicians Expect in 5 Years(n=2,607)Base SizesTOTAL2,607Asia Pacific807Europe912394345120China418UK272USA365North AmericaSouth AmericaMid.East&AfricaAsia Pacific=AP Europe=EU Mid.East&Africa=MEA North America =NA South America=SA China=CH UK=UK USA=USDr=Doctors Nu=NursesS
325、ignificantly higher than Role/Region/Country(indicated by first two letters e.g.AP=APAC)4550424237524342Low BaseEU,NA,SAUK,US2733212421362224Low BaseEU,NA,SAUK,USConversely,patients in Europe are thought to use monitoring tools much less commonly(21%);it is a similar picture in South America(21%).Cl
326、inician of the Future 202338The critical element of trust in the patient-clinician partnershipAs a result of this shift,28%of clinicians globally consider managing real-time patient analytics from healthcare devices more effectively a priority for the next 2-3 years.Agreement is significantly higher
327、 in APAC(36%),specifically among doctors in China(47%).Conversely,significantly fewer UK(16%)and USA(22%)clinicians consider this a priority.This growing significance of patient-controlled monitoring devices specifically and patient empowerment more generally has several implications,both for patien
328、ts and clinicians.One area of growing concern for patients around proactive health management is the proliferation of misinformation and even disinformation.The rise of wearables and,more broadly,proactive health management opens the door to influencers and self-labeled experts online who may not be
329、 providing reliable information or guidance.Misinformation can negate the benefits of patient empowerment,resulting in poor decisions that have negative outcomes.14As we saw in the Clinician of the Future Report 2022,internet access is rebalancing the information asymmetry we have seen in the health
330、care system for so long.15 Providing accurate,reliable information is no longer enough to counter misinformation.Instead,clinicians and patients need to build a trusting and collaborative partnership,which could be facilitated by reliable digital health technologies.16With this kind of foundational
331、partnership in place,patients can also experience the full benefits of tools like wearables.For example,increased use of wearables has been shown to positively influence confidence and adherence to self-management of chronic conditions,depending on the level of health literacy.17 More broadly,use of
332、 wearables can support patient empowerment,but this requires clinicians who are skilled in technology use and data analysis,as well as supportive of patients use of the technology.18Embracing hybrid communication“Im concerned that the need to reduce healthcare costs and the desire from policy makers
333、 for everything to go digital is impacting patient care.Patients are no longer at the focus of healthcare.”Nurse(UK),2023 surveyPatients are becoming more empowered,thanks in part to technology,and their proactive health management is likely to progress.In parallel,there is a shift to more digital solutions and modes of communication(see chapter 2 for details).This raises some concern about what c
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