高力国际：2023年第一季度美国工业地产市场25强报告（英文版）（16页）.pdf

1、Accelerating success.The Markets that Move AmericaAn Inside Look at the Top 25 U.S.Industrial&Logistics Markets2023 Q1|U.S.Research Report|Introduction-Top 25 Industrial Markets2Key Findings Colliers tracks more than 75 industrial markets inthe U.S.The 25 markets in this report are heavily concentra

2、ted in the Midwest,and ten of them total 35%of the total U.S.industrial inventory.The South and West regions each comprise roughly 26%of the total,and the Northeast,12%.Most of the markets included recorded a modestvacancy increase in the first quarter,in line with thenational trend.Five had a vacan

3、cy rate above 6%,including Denver(7.0%),Milwaukee(6.7%),Indianapolis(6.5%),Memphis(6.3%),and Dallas(6.3%).However,tight market conditions prevailed in many markets,particularly those with more supply constraints.Vacancy remained below 3%in Greater Los Angeles,the New York City metro,South Florida,Ci

4、ncinnati,and Minneapolis.Year-to-date new deliveries in the U.S.totaled 131.1million square feet,and a healthy amount underconstruction,621.8 million square feet,will boost supplyeven further in the coming year.Seven markets postedyear-to-date new supply greater than five million squarefeet:Dallas-F

5、ort Worth,Greater Los Angeles,Chicago,Indianapolis,Houston,Philadelphia,and Columbus.Each also had more than 14 million square feet underconstruction at the end of the first quarter.Net absorption in the U.S.totaled 73.8 million squarefeet year-to-date,37.6%below the first quarter of lastyear.Demand

6、 for industrial space is still in line withhistorical averages in most markets but deceleratedfrom last years record pace.The top five markets foroverall year-over-year increases in net absorption werePortland,Cleveland,Dallas-Fort Worth,Milwaukee,andIndianapolis.Industrial demand was well diversifi

7、edthroughout the U.S.,as just one market had occupancygains greater than eight million square feet.Only St.Louis,Seattle,and Washington,D.C.,reported modestlynegative net absorption year-to-date.Introduction U.S.industrial market performance has decelerated from recent record highs against the backd

8、rop of slower economic growth,persistent inflation,and elevated interest rates.However,key fundamentals,including net absorption and asking rents,continued to grow,although vacancy began to rise from historical lows as new supply overtook demand.An increase in speculative development will pressure o

9、ccupancies and rental rates in the near term,but the Top 25 industrial markets covered in this report are expected to remain resilient.Despite recent economic headwinds,the outlook for industrial demand is favorable,supported by the continued adoption of e-commerce and the reshoring of supply chains

10、 to the U.S.Inventory by Region34.1%26.91%26.6%12.4%MidwestSouthWestNortheast2023 Q1-Colliers U.S.Research Report|3Vacancy&Absorption(SF)Industrial Supply(SF)YTD Supply/Demand(SF)0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%(2,000,000)-2,000,000 4,000,000 6,000,000 8,000,000 10,000,000AtlantaChicagoCincinnatiClevelandColumbus

11、DallasDenverDetroitGreater Los AngelesHoustonIndianapolisKansas CityMemphisMilwaukeeMinneapolisNew York City MetroPhiladelphiaPhoenixPortlandSan Francisco Bay AreaSeattleSouth FloridaSt.LouisTampa BayWashington,DCYTD Net AbsorptionVacancy Rate-10,000,000 20,000,000 30,000,000 40,000,000 50,000,000 6

12、0,000,000 70,000,000AtlantaChicagoCincinnatiClevelandColumbusDallasDenverDetroitGreater Los AngelesHoustonIndianapolisKansas CityMemphisMilwaukeeMinneapolisNew York City MetroPhiladelphiaPhoenixPortlandSan Francisco Bay AreaSeattleSouth FloridaSt.LouisTampa BayWashington,DCUnder ConstructionYTD New

13、Supply(5,000,000)-5,000,000 10,000,000 15,000,000 20,000,000 25,000,000AtlantaChicagoCincinnatiClevelandColumbusDallasDenverDetroitGreater Los AngelesHoustonIndianapolisKansas CityMemphisMilwaukeeMinneapolisNew York City MetroPhiladelphiaPhoenixPortlandSan Francisco Bay AreaSeattleSouth FloridaSt.Lo

14、uisTampa BayWashington,DCYTD Net AbsorptionYTD New Supply|Inventory-Top 25 Industrial Markets4 Inventory grew 3.4%year-over-year among the Top 25markets.The South had the fastest inventory growth,5.5%,while the West region had the slowest,2.1%year-over-year.Below-average vacancy rates and strong ren

15、tgrowth in many of the West region markets suggest alimited amount of land to develop in these metros.Nine markets in the report recorded year-over-yearinventory increases greater than 3.4%;two of them haddouble-digit increases.Year-over-year inventory growthtotaled 17.2%,or 55.9 million square feet

16、,in Columbusand 12.8%,or 91.6 million square feet,in Houston.Inventory also rose 9.1%in Indianapolis and 7.5%in Phoenix in the first quarter of 2023.Vacancy in these high-supply markets is,however,well above the national average.Inventory increased less than 1%year-over-year inDetroit,the San Franci

17、sco Bay Area,and Seattle,whileit fell slightly in Cleveland.However,their share ofinventory underway is below the national average,suggesting only modest supply growth in the comingquarters.Inventory1Q23 Total Inventory-200,000,000 400,000,000 600,000,000 800,000,000 1,000,000,000 1,200,000,000 1,40

18、0,000,000 1,600,000,000 1,800,000,000AtlantaChicagoCincinnatiClevelandColumbusDallasDenverDetroitGreater Los AngelesHoustonIndianapolisKansas CityMemphisMilwaukeeMinneapolisNew York City MetroPhiladelphiaPhoenixPortlandSan Francisco Bay AreaSeattleSouth FloridaSt.LouisTampa BayWashington,DC2023 Q1-C

19、olliers U.S.Research Report|5QOQ%of Inventory ChangeYOY%of Inventory Change-2%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%AtlantaChicagoCincinnatiClevelandColumbusDallasDenverDetroitGreater Los AngelesHoustonIndianapolisKansas CityMemphisMilwaukeeMinneapolisNew York City MetroPhiladelphiaPhoenixPortlandSan Francisco Bay

20、AreaSeattleSouth FloridaSt.LouisTampa BayWashington,DC-2%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%18%20%AtlantaChicagoCincinnatiClevelandColumbusDallasDenverDetroitGreater Los AngelesHoustonIndianapolisKansas CityMemphisMilwaukeeMinneapolisNew York City MetroPhiladelphiaPhoenixPortlandSan Francisco Bay AreaSeattleSout

21、h FloridaSt.LouisTampa BayWashington,DCYOY%of Inventory Change|Absorption-Top 25 Industrial Markets6 Net absorption of 73.8 million square feet for the overallindustrial market was 37.6%lower in the first quarter of2023 than in the first quarter of 2022.The 25 industrialmarkets in this report accoun

22、ted for roughly 77%of theoverall U.S.occupancy growth.The only two outside ofthe Top 25 with positive absorption greater than twomillion square feet in the first quarter were Greenville/Spartanburg and Charleston.Demand has moderated from its record pace in 2022across most metros.Only five markets i

23、n the Top 25recorded stronger net absorption year-over-year in thefirst quarter,Cleveland,Dallas-Fort Worth,Indianapolis,Milwaukee,and Portland.The rest reported weaker net absorption year-over-year,with the largest decelerations in Seattle,St.Louis,Washington,D.C.,and Greater Los Angeles.Six market

24、s logged more than four million square feetof positive net absorption in the first quarter:Dallas-Fort Worth,Chicago,Phoenix,Portland,Indianapolis,and Houston.Dallas-Fort Worth reported the strongestnet absorption of any market,at 8.6 million square feetyear-to-date,but significant speculative devel

25、opment willcontinue to challenge its fundamentals.Absorption1Q23 Net Absorption(2,000,000)-2,000,000 4,000,000 6,000,000 8,000,000 10,000,000AtlantaChicagoCincinnatiClevelandColumbusDallasDenverDetroitGreater Los AngelesHoustonIndianapolisKansas CityMemphisMilwaukeeMinneapolisNew York City MetroPhil

26、adelphiaPhoenixPortlandSan Francisco Bay AreaSeattleSouth FloridaSt.LouisTampa BayWashington,DC2023 Q1-Colliers U.S.Research Report|7QOQ%Absorption ChangeYOY%Absorption Change-200%-150%-100%-50%0%50%100%150%200%AtlantaChicagoCincinnatiClevelandColumbusDallasDenverDetroitGreater Los AngelesHoustonInd

27、ianapolisKansas CityMemphisMilwaukeeMinneapolisNew York City MetroPhiladelphiaPhoenixPortlandSan Francisco Bay AreaSeattleSouth FloridaSt.LouisTampa BayWashington,DCQOQ%Absorption Change-300%-200%-100%0%100%200%300%AtlantaChicagoCincinnatiClevelandColumbusDallasDenverDetroitGreater Los AngelesHousto

28、nIndianapolisKansas CityMemphisMilwaukeeMinneapolisNew York City MetroPhiladelphiaPhoenixPortlandSan Francisco Bay AreaSeattleSouth FloridaSt.LouisTampa BayWashington,DCYOY%Absorption Change|Rent-Top 25 Industrial Markets8 Average U.S.overall asking rents for industrial properties continued to incre

29、ase in 2023,to$9.58 per square foot in the first quarter a 20.4%increase year-over-year and a 5.6%increase over the previous quarter.But steady supply additions are growing vacancies in many markets,so rent growth is expected to decelerate in the coming quarters.Nine markets posted asking rents high

30、er than the national average,most in the Northeast and West regions where pricing premiums are standard.The San Francisco Bay area,Greater Los Angeles,New York Citymetro,South Florida,Seattle,and Washington,D.C.,markets had some of the highest average industrial rents in the country each at more tha

31、n$14.50 per square foot in the first quarter.By contrast,each Midwest market recorded asking rents below the national average.Fifteen markets posted year-over-year asking rentincreases higher than 15%,including Phoenix,TampaBay,Greater Los Angeles,Atlanta,and Columbus,whileDenver and St.Louis were t

32、he only two markets whereyear-over-year asking rates declined.Rent1Q23 Asking Rents$-$5.00$10.00$15.00$20.00$25.00$30.00AtlantaChicagoCincinnatiClevelandColumbusDallasDenverDetroitGreater Los AngelesHoustonIndianapolisKansas CityMemphisMilwaukeeMinneapolisNew York City MetroPhiladelphiaPhoenixPortla

33、ndSan Francisco Bay AreaSeattleSouth FloridaSt.LouisTampa BayWashington,DC2023 Q1-Colliers U.S.Research Report|9QOQ%Rent GrowthYOY%Rent Growth-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%AtlantaChicagoCincinnatiClevelandColumbusDallasDenverDetroitGreater Los AngelesHoustonIndianapolisKansas CityMemphisMilwaukeeMinneapolisN

34、ew York City MetroPhiladelphiaPhoenixPortlandSan Francisco Bay AreaSeattleSouth FloridaSt.LouisTampa BayWashington,DCYOY%Rent Growth-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%AtlantaChicagoCincinnatiClevelandColumbusDallasDenverDetroitGreater Los AngelesHoustonIndianapolisKansas CityMemphisMilwaukeeMinneapolisNew

35、York City MetroPhiladelphiaPhoenixPortlandSan Francisco Bay AreaSeattleSouth FloridaSt.LouisTampa BayWashington,DCQOQ%Rent Growth|Under Construction-Top 25 Industrial Markets10 Although higher interest rates,labor shortages,and material delays restrained development,theindustrial supply pipeline was

36、 still healthy,and 621.8million square feet,or 3.6%of inventory,was underconstruction across the U.S.in the first quarter.In-process construction is 7.9%higher than in the firstquarter of 2022,although lower than peak levels at theend of 2022.The Top 25 markets accounted for 72.4%ofall industrial de

37、velopment underway nationally.Eight markets in the Top 25 had more than 4%of theirinventory underway in the first quarter.Phoenix hadthe highest share,at 12.4%,or 46.8 million square feet;Dallas-Fort Worth,6.2%,or 62.1 million square feet;and Indianapolis,5.6%,or 18.2 million square feet.The nominal

38、 square footage underway fell year-over-year in ten markets,with some of the largest declines in Cincinnati,St.Louis,Portland,and Milwaukee.In the Top 25 markets,101 facilities of one millionsquare feet or larger were under construction at theend of the first quarter.One of the largest is Amazonsfou

39、r-million-square-foot industrial center in the InlandEmpire section of Greater Los Angeles,scheduled tobe completed in 2023,which will be its largest U.S.industrial facility.Under Construction1Q23 Under Construction-10,000,000 20,000,000 30,000,000 40,000,000 50,000,000 60,000,000 70,000,000AtlantaC

40、hicagoCincinnatiClevelandColumbusDallasDenverDetroitGreater Los AngelesHoustonIndianapolisKansas CityMemphisMilwaukeeMinneapolisNew York City MetroPhiladelphiaPhoenixPortlandSan Francisco Bay AreaSeattleSouth FloridaSt.LouisTampa BayWashington,DC1Q23 Under Construction2023 Q1-Colliers U.S.Research R

41、eport|11QOQ%Under Construction ChangeYOY%Under Construction Change-120%-100%-80%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%AtlantaChicagoCincinnatiClevelandColumbusDallasDenverDetroitGreater Los AngelesHoustonIndianapolisKansas CityMemphisMilwaukeeMinneapolisNew York City MetroPhiladelphiaPhoenixPortlandSan Francisco B

42、ay AreaSeattleSouth FloridaSt.LouisTampa BayWashington,DCQOQ%Under Construction Change-150%-100%-50%0%50%100%150%AtlantaChicagoCincinnatiClevelandColumbusDallasDenverDetroitGreater Los AngelesHoustonIndianapolisKansas CityMemphisMilwaukeeMinneapolisNew York City MetroPhiladelphiaPhoenixPortlandSan F

43、rancisco Bay AreaSeattleSouth FloridaSt.LouisTampa BayWashington,DCYOY%Under Construction Change|New Supply-Top 25 Industrial Markets12 Year-to-date new supply of 94.7 million square feetin the Top 25 markets in the first quarter was 50%higher year-over-year,although it was down 10.3%quarter-over-qu

44、arter from peak deliveries at the end of2022.While the development pipeline remains strong,elevated deliveries are also expected to continue overthe next few quarters.With 19.4 million square feet delivered year-to-date,theDallas-Fort Worth market has continued to lead all majormarkets in new constr

45、uction.That included 19 industrialprojects larger than 500,000 square feet,11 of themvacant at delivery.Greater Los Angeles had the next highest delivery total,10.5 million square feet.However,the preleasing rate in Greater Los Angeles remained stronger,with four out of the five major projects over

46、500,000 square feet delivering fully leased.Eleven of the Top 25 markets reported a year-over-yeardecline in new supply,with the sharpest drop in theSan Francisco Bay Area,Kansas City,Washington,D.C.,Detroit,and Atlanta.Still,the sturdy levels of industrialproduct underway in these markets should so

47、ontranslate into elevated deliveries.New SupplyYTD New Supply-5,000,000 10,000,000 15,000,000 20,000,000 25,000,000AtlantaChicagoCincinnatiClevelandColumbusDallasDenverDetroitGreater Los AngelesHoustonIndianapolisKansas CityMemphisMilwaukeeMinneapolisNew York City MetroPhiladelphiaPhoenixPortlandSan

48、 Francisco Bay AreaSeattleSouth FloridaSt.LouisTampa BayWashington,DC2023 Q1-Colliers U.S.Research Report|13QOQ%New Supply ChangeYOY%New Supply Change-150%-100%-50%0%50%100%150%AtlantaChicagoCincinnatiClevelandColumbusDallasDenverDetroitGreater Los AngelesHoustonIndianapolisKansas CityMemphisMilwauk

49、eeMinneapolisNew York City MetroPhiladelphiaPhoenixPortlandSan Francisco Bay AreaSeattleSouth FloridaSt.LouisTampa BayWashington,DCQOQ%New Supply Change-200%0%200%400%600%800%1000%1200%1400%1600%1800%AtlantaChicagoCincinnatiClevelandColumbusDallasDenverDetroitGreater Los AngelesHoustonIndianapolisKa

50、nsas CityMemphisMilwaukeeMinneapolisNew York City MetroPhiladelphiaPhoenixPortlandSan Francisco Bay AreaSeattleSouth FloridaSt.LouisTampa BayWashington,DCYOY%New Supply Change|Vacancy-Top 25 Industrial Markets14 After reaching record lows at the end of 2022,theoverall vacancy rate in the U.S.increas

51、ed 30 basispoints quarter-over-quarter as absorption moderatedamid steady supply additions.In general,vacancyrates were above average in the South region,whereconstruction remained strong.In the West region,dominated by the supply-constrained Greater LosAngeles and San Francisco Bay Area markets,vac

52、anciesstayed below 3%.Twelve of the markets in this report had highervacancies than the national average in the first quarter,and four,Denver,Milwaukee,Indianapolis,andMemphis,all had vacancy of more than 6%.Conversely,five markets continued to run much tighter vacanciesthan the national average,sti

53、ll below 3%despitemodest quarter-over-quarter increases in some cases.Greater Los Angeles,with the lowest vacancy rate at 1.5%,was the lone market with vacancy lower than 2%,while the New York City metro,South Florida,Cincinnati,and Minneapolis had vacancy rates between 2%and 3%in the first quarter.

54、Robust levels of speculative construction drove thelargest vacancy increases quarter-over-quarter.InColumbus,vacancy rose 320 basis points and inIndianapolis,200 basis points;in both,speculativesupply delivered in the first quarter was above thenational average.Meanwhile,vacancy continued todecline

55、in 10 markets quarter-over-quarter,althoughmodestly in most.Vacancy1Q23 Vacancy0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%AtlantaChicagoCincinnatiClevelandColumbusDallasDenverDetroitGreater Los AngelesHoustonIndianapolisKansas CityMemphisMilwaukeeMinneapolisNew York City MetroPhiladelphiaPhoenixPortlandSan Francisco Bay Are

56、aSeattleSouth FloridaSt.LouisTampa BayWashington,DC2023 Q1-Colliers U.S.Research Report|15QOQ%Point ChangeYOY%Point Change(200)(100)-100 200 300 400AtlantaChicagoCincinnatiClevelandColumbusDallasDenverDetroitGreater Los AngelesHoustonIndianapolisKansas CityMemphisMilwaukeeMinneapolisNew York City Me

57、troPhiladelphiaPhoenixPortlandSan Francisco Bay AreaSeattleSouth FloridaSt.LouisTampa BayWashington,DCQOQ Percentage Point Change(300)(200)(100)-100 200 300 400AtlantaChicagoCincinnatiClevelandColumbusDallasDenverDetroitGreater Los AngelesHoustonIndianapolisKansas CityMemphisMilwaukeeMinneapolisNew

58、York City MetroPhiladelphiaPhoenixPortlandSan Francisco Bay AreaSeattleSouth FloridaSt.LouisTampa BayWashington,DCYOY Percentage Point CThis document/email has been prepared by Colliers for advertising and general information only.Colliers makes no guarantees,representations or warranties of any kin

59、d,expressed or implied,regarding the information including,but not limited to,warranties of content,accuracy and reliability.Any interested party should undertake their own inquiries as to the accuracy of the infor-mation.Colliers excludes unequivocally all inferred or implied terms,conditions and w

60、arranties arising out of this document and excludes all liability for loss and damages arising there from.This publication is the copyrighted property of Colliers and/or its licensor(s).2023.All rights reserved.This communication is not intended to cause or induce breach of an existing listing agreement.Industrial Services ContactStephanie RodriguezNational DirectorIndustrial Services|USA+1 954 553 Research ContactSteig SeawardSenior DirectorNational Research|USA+1 303 888