高力国际：2023年第一季度美国办公楼市场展望报告（英文版）（14页）.pdf

1、U.S.Research Report|Q1 2023|Office Market Outlook|1U.S.Research Report|Q1 2023 Office Market OutlookU.S.Office Fundamentals Continue to Weaken in Q1 2023Stephen Newbold,National Director of Office Research|U.S.Summary Statistics:Q1 2023U.S.Office MarketVacancy Rate16.1%Change from Q4 2022(basis poin

2、ts)40Absorption(MSF)(25.4)%of Markets With Positive Absorption24%New Supply(MSF)16.9Under Construction(MSF)94.9Sublease Space Available(MSF)254Asking Rents(Per Square Foot Per Year)Downtown Class A$52.58 Change From Q1 2022-1.6%Suburban Class A$34.43 Change From Q1 20221.8%Source:Colliers/CoStarThe

3、softening in U.S.office market fundamentals,seen in Q4 2022,accelerated in the first quarter of 2023.As a result,net absorption remained negative and occupancy losses increased,while vacancy rose at a faster pace,and sublease space hit a new record high.The U.S.office vacancy rate stands at 16.1%,an

4、 increase of 40 basis points in the first quarter.Vacancy is still slightly below the prior peak of 16.3%,seen at the height of the Global Financial Crisis(GFC)but looks set to equal,or exceed this level by mid-2023 with further upward pressure to follow.Net absorption,which measures the change in o

5、ccupied office inventory,was positive in only 24%of the metro office markets tracked in our national survey,down from 43%in the fourth quarter.National office absorption totaled negative 25.4 million square feet in the first quarter,having turned negative in the fourth quarter to the tune of 14.1 mi

6、llion square feet.Reflecting this shift in fortunes,17 metro markets posted more than half a million square feet of negative absorption in Q1 2023,up from 12 markets in Q4 2022.Metro occupancy losses in the first quarter were led by Boston(negative 3.3 million square feet),New York City(negative 2.7

7、 million square feet)and Chicago(negative 2.3 million square feet).Positive absorption was modest and led by Las Vegas(230,800 square feet)and Miami(207,770 square feet).There is a record 254 million square feet of sublease space available across the U.S.office market,up from 242.8 million square fe

8、et in Q4 2022,and significantly higher than the prior cycles peak of 143.3 million square feet seen in Q2 2009.As firms continue to evaluate their post-Covid real estate needs,sublease space will remain a cost competitive,short-term option until there is greater clarity on economic and business dire

9、ction.Construction activity continues to slow.Currently,93.5 million square feet are underway,down 43%from this cycles peak of 164 million square feet in Q3 2020.The New York metro area has by far the largest amount of ongoing construction,at 15.5 million square feet,followed by the San Francisco Ba

10、y Area with 9.5 million square feet,which is mostly focused on Silicon Valley,and Seattle with 7.9 million square feet.Asking rates are,by and large,showing little change.However,the gap between asking and effective rents remains significant,with generous concessions on offer.For example,tenant impr

11、ovement allowances of$100 per square foot or more are available in 10 of the 15 leading U.S.office markets when a tenant signs a new 10-year lease on Class A space.Similarly,two-thirds of the leading markets are offering 10 months or more of rent abatement on such transactions.There is considerable

12、debate and speculation regarding the future of the U.S.office sector.Unfortunately,the return to the office remains slow.Most tenants are adopting hybrid working with a minimum of three days in the office per week emerging as the common standard.However,some employers are mandating a full-time retur

13、n to the office.Is a market correction ahead?Firms continue to recast their property strategies,focusing on how much space will be needed going forward,how it should be utilized,and where it should be located.As a result,tenant downsizing has become the norm,with space reductions of at least 20%to 3

14、0%U.S.Research Report|Q1 2023|Office Market Outlook|2being implemented by large occupiers.While existing lease obligations will temper the pace of such changes,the net result will be sustained upward pressure on vacancy.Pending a resurgence in demand,vacancy rates and sublease availability are set t

15、o continue to rise over the rest of 2023,placing increased pressure on rents.In addition,retrenchment in the finance,government and tech sectors,which had been key drivers of leasing volume pre-Covid,could compound this trend.As leases expire,the return of sublease space will also create a challenge

16、 for landlords in terms of both a drop in revenue and how to position and price such space.Class A downtown sublease space is being offered at a 29%rental discount to direct space across the leading markets.With repricing already occurring on the sales side,it seems only a matter of time before it t

17、akes place in the rental market driven by the triple-hit of downsizing,sublease space and rising vacancy rates,as landlords become increasingly aggressive to secure tenants.Wheres the upside?Performance and demand differentials are expected to widen.Bifurcation should be most evident between space c

18、lass and age,but will also occur between and within markets,and different business sectors.Opportunities should become more selective,but quality will win out as firms seek the optimal work experience to retain and attract the best talent and bring employees back to the office.Environmental,Social,a

19、nd Governance(ESG)initiatives offer owners an additional opportunity to differentiate their assets from the pack.U.S.Economic OutlookCurrent economic headlines remain dominated by high,but declining,inflation and the Federal Reserves(Fed)policy response.Decembers Consumer Price Inflation(CPI)the pri

20、ncipal measure used by the Bureau of Labor Statistics(BLS)reached a 6.5%annualized rate,down from the 40-year high of 9.1%in June 2022,but still significantlyelevated.Encouragingly,the most recent data shows that theannualized inflation rate has decreased to 4.9%.Looking forward,CPI is expected to c

21、ontinue to fall.Consensus Economics projects that CPI will be around 4.3%at the close of 2023.This is still elevated compared to the 10-year average of 1.8%during 2011 to 2020.To curb inflation,the Fed has continued to raise interest rates,albeit at a reduced level.Mays 25 basis point increase broug

22、ht the Feds target range to 4.75%to 5%.Rates are expected to remain at this level throughout 2023.Following the encouraging 2.9%annual GDP growth rate in the fourth quarter of 2022,the U.S.economy has cooled.The U.S.is unlikely to repeat this performance in 2023.Rising interest rates continue to fet

23、ter economic growth.Annualized GDP growth of just 1.1%in Q1 2023 has increased the odds of a mild recession this year.Comparison with Previous CyclesWhile the factors that drove each recession are different,how does office market performance in the Covid-19 downturn compare with the GFC of 2008 to 2

24、010 and crash from 2000 to 2002?The sharpest difference is in occupancy losses.Cumulative net absorption in the current downturn stands at negative 175.9 million square feet,compared to negative 92.8 million square feet during the GFC and 61.5 million square feet in the crash.Further occupancy losse

25、s are anticipated in the current cycle,driven by a combination of a subdued economic outlook,business retrenchment and tenant downsizing.The U.S.office vacancy rate stands at 16.1%,20 basis points below the all-time peak of 16.3%seen during the GFC.Given the pace and scale of recent increases,the va

26、cancy rate could exceed this level by mid-2023 with the prospect of further increases in the short-to-medium term until there is an uptick in tenant demand.The amount of sublease space currently on the market is at an all-time high of 254 million square feet.During the GFC sublease space peaked at 1

27、43.3 million square feet.Further increases are expected until sufficient leases expire,and the space is returned to landlords.This is unlikely to reduce overall availability.Asking rents are largely holding up,but there has been a significant increase in tenant concessions in most leading markets,wi

28、dening the delta between asking and effective rents.During the GFC Class A CBD asking rates fell by25%accompanied by a 9%fall in Class A suburban asking rents.It seems only a matter of time before landlords begin to reduce asking rents to secure tenants in a tepid leasing market.U.S.Office Market:Cl

29、ass A Rental Growth Source:Colliers-25-15-5%15200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022CBDSuburbanGFC Impact on RentsCBD:(25%)Suburban:(9%)U.S.Research Report|Q1 2023|Office Market Outlook|3Key ObservationsVacancy Increases Once More The U.S.office vacancy rate stands

30、at 16.1%,up 40 basispoints from the fourth quarter.Vacancy in this cycle looks set to exceed the record peak of16.3%,seen at the height of the Global Financial Crisis.Central business district(CBD)vacancy rates rose by 60 basispoints in Q1 2023 to 16.8%,while suburban levels increased by 40 basis po

31、ints to 15.8%.South Florida and Jacksonville have the lowest metrovacancy rates outside of the tertiary markets,withboth at 10.3%,followed by Birmingham(10.5%)andMemphis(10.6%).Houston has the highest metro vacancy rate at 23.1%,followed by Austin(22.2%)and Indianapolis(21.1%).U.S.Office Market:Supp

32、ly,Demand&VacancyAsking Rents Show Little Change Average Class A full-service office asking rates increased by 0.6%over the 12 months ending Q1 2023 to$41.40per square foot.Class A asking rates in CBD markets average$52.58 per square foot,down by 1.2%over the past 12 months.Conversely,average Class

33、A suburban asking ratesstand at$34.83 per square foot,up 1.8%over the corresponding period.The gap between asking and effective rates remains significant.Tenant improvement allowances of$100 per square foot or more,accompanied by up 10 to 18 months of rent abatement,are available for Class A space i

34、n several leading metros.Absorption Remains Negative U.S.office absorption totaled negative 25.4 million squarefeet in Q1 2023,compared with negative 14.1 million squarefeet in Q4 2022.Less than a quarter(24%)of markets tracked in our surveysaw positive absorption in the first quarter,down from43%in

35、 Q4 2022.Occupancy gains were modest in the first quarter.LasVegas saw the greatest amount of positive absorption atthe metro level in Q1 2023 at 200,890 square feet,followedby Birmingham(173,319 square feet)and Huntsville(171,713 square feet).On the downside,17 metro markets posted more than halfa

36、million square feet of negative absorption in Q1 2023,ledby Boston(negative 3.3 million square feet),New York City(negative 2.7 million square feet),and Chicago(negative 2.3million square feet).Supply-Side Risks Continue to Recede The amount of office space under construction in theU.S.stands at 94.

37、5 million square feet,down 43%fromthis cycles peak of 162.6 million square feet in Q3 2020.The amount of space completed in Q1 2023 was 16.9million square feet.CBD markets account for 52.3 million square feet underway,with 41.1 million square feet taking place in the suburbs.Inaddition,the pace of c

38、onstruction in CBD markets is greater,equating to 2.5%of inventory compared with 1%in thesuburbs.The national level is 1.5%.The New York City metro has by far the greatest amount ofconstruction underway at 15.5 million square feet,followedby the San Francisco Bay Area(9.5 million square feet)andSeat

39、tle(7.9 million square feet).024681012141618-50-40-30-20-10010203040Q42018Q12019Q22019Q32019Q42019Q12020Q22020Q32020Q42020Q12021Q22021Q32021Q42021Q12022Q22022Q32022Q42022Q12023Absorption(MSF)New Supply(MSF)Vacancy Rate(%)Millions SFVacancy%Source:ColliersU.S.Research Report|Q1 2023|Office Market Out

40、look|4U.S.Office Market:Quarterly Under Construction TotalsU.S.Office Market:Available Sublease SpaceSublease Space at a Record High Total sublease space available at a national level increasedby 11.2 million square feet in the first quarter to 254million square feet.San Francisco still has the high

41、est sublease availabilityrate among the leading markets,by a fair margin,at 9.2%.Seattle is next,at 5%,followed by Boston at 4.9%.The average across the 15 markets is 4.1%.In an analysis of rental discounts for Class A subleasespace over Class A direct space across the leading officemarkets,the aver

42、age discount is 29%.Washington,D.C.leads all markets with a 53.1%discount followed byChicago at 41.8%.Source:ColliersSource:ColliersSource:Colliers/CoStarLeading U.S.Office Markets:Sublease Availability Rates Q1 2023Leading U.S.Office Markets:Class A CBD Sublease Space Rental Discount Q1 20230204060

43、80100120140160180Q1 2006Q3 2006Q1 2007Q3 2007Q1 2008Q3 2008Q1 2009Q3 2009Q1 2010Q3 2010Q1 2011Q3 2011Q1 2012Q3 2012Q1 2013Q3 2013Q1 2014Q3 2014Q1 2015Q3 2015Q1 2016Q3 2016Q1 2017Q3 2017Q1 2018Q3 2018Q1 2019Q3 2019Q1 2020Q3 2020Q1 2021Q3 2021Q1 2022Q3 2022Q1 2023Under ConstructionHistoric AverageMSF0

44、20406080100120140160180200220240260Q1 2008Q3 2008Q1 2009Q3 2009Q1 2010Q3 2010Q1 2011Q3 2011Q1 2012Q3 2012Q1 2013Q3 2013Q1 2014Q3 2014Q1 2015Q3 2015Q1 2016Q3 2016Q1 2017Q3 2017Q1 2018Q3 2018Q1 2019Q3 2019Q1 2020Q3 2020Q1 2021Q3 2021Q1 2022Q3 2022Q1 2023MSF0%2%4%6%8%10%AverageWashington DCSilicon Vall

45、eySeattleSan FranciscoPhoenixPhiladelphiaMiamiManhattanLos AngelesHoustonDenverDallasChicagoBostonAtlantaLeading U.S.Office Markets:Sublease Availability Rates Q1 2023Leading U.S.Office Markets:Class A CBD Sublease Space Rental Discount Q1 20230%2%4%6%8%10%AverageWashington DCSilicon ValleySeattleSa

46、n FranciscoPhoenixPhiladelphiaMiamiManhattanLos AngelesHoustonDenverDallasChicagoBostonAtlanta0%10%20%30%40%50%AverageWashington DCSeattleSan FranciscoPhoenixPhiladelphiaMiamiManhattanLos AngelesHoustonDenverDallasChicagoBostonAtlantaU.S.Research Report|Q1 2023|Office Market Outlook|5Investment Acti

47、vity Continues to Fall Total office sales volume in Q1 2023 was$10.7 billion,down 68%year-over-year.Total office investment over the past 12 months was$90.6 billion,down by 43%over the correspondingperiod to Q1 2022.Suburban properties continue to attract the most capital,with buyers placing$8.1 bil

48、lion in assets in Q1 2023 compared with$2.6 billion in CBD locations.Average pricing in Q1 2023 was$214 per square foot,withlevels at$274 per square foot in CBD markets and$200 persquare foot in the suburbs.Further price decreases are expected in the face of higherinterest rates and asset repricing,

49、clear evidence of whichis now occurring.TenantAddressMarketSFTenant Industry Lease TypeNuStar Energy L.P.NuStar Energy Corporate CampusSan Antonio,TX321,840EnergyNewKoch Foods Inc.9450 Fairfield Rd.Fairfield,OH270,506ManufacturingNewTwo Sigma100 Avenue of the AmericasNew York,NY265,127FinancialRenew

50、alSanofiM Station WestMorristown,NJ260,000PharaceuticalNewSony PicturesWilshire Courtyard WestLos Angeles,CA246,642EntertainmentNewAddressMarketSFPrice($m)Buyer13-17 Laight St.New York,NY108,000$273.5Hyundai Motor960 Central ExpresswaySanta Clara,CA877,424$240.5Amazon172-180 Remen St.Brooklyn,NY272,

51、585$160.0Rockrose DevelopmentAshburn Campus,Shellhorn Rd.Ashburn,VA132,280$150.0GI PartnersSouth Lake at DullesHerndon,VA269,873$110.1Vision PropertiesTop U.S.Office Leases in Q1 2023Top U.S.Office Sales in Q1 2023Sources:CoStar,ColliersSource:Real Capital AnalyticsU.S.Research Report|Q1 2023|Office

52、 Market Outlook|6Downtown-AllMar 31,2023Q1 2023Mar 31,2023Q4 2022Q1 2023Q1 2023MarketInventory (SF)New Supply(SF)Under Construction(SF)Vacancy RateVacancy RateAbsorption(SF)YTD Absorption(SF)USA2,115,553,760 9,127,450 52,269,183 16.2%16.8%(11,965,140)(11,965,140)Midwest388,656,638 448,308 5,176,722

53、17.8%18.5%(3,466,372)(3,466,372)Chicago158,638,498 40,000 1,979,382 20.7%22.1%(2,261,246)(2,261,246)Cincinnati16,184,745-16.5%17.2%(99,008)(99,008)Cleveland/Akron Metro22,848,744-1,168,00020.3%16.9%36,437 36,437 Dayton5,422,444-30.9%31.1%(10,000)(10,000)Detroit27,344,063-558,0008.0%9.6%(601,780)(601

54、,780)Grand Rapids11,758,929 250,000 10,812 8.9%9.0%206,310 206,310 Indianapolis13,102,137-94,26621.8%23.0%(41,802)(41,802)Kansas City34,622,859-10.3%12.1%(485,584)(485,584)Milwaukee21,002,629 158,308 372,000 18.4%18.5%128,551 128,551 Minneapolis-St.Paul56,601,957-435,92718.5%18.3%(374,781)(374,781)O

55、maha7,918,096-159,3356.9%7.2%(9,356)(9,356)St.Louis13,211,537-399,00021.5%21.5%45,887 45,887 Northeast914,560,197 6,056,948 21,698,76413.6%14.3%(4,318,528)(4,318,528)Baltimore44,799,763-902,01311.1%11.8%(305,026)(305,026)Boston67,089,648-3,831,15217.4%19.4%(1,321,248)(1,321,248)Hartford13,143,905-14

56、.0%14.0%4,941 4,941 New York City Metro545,332,335 5,951,748 14,940,722 12.1%12.7%(1,383,509)(1,383,509)Manhattan528,212,719 5,951,748 14,940,722 11.8%12.4%(1,205,046)(1,205,046)NYC Northern Suburbs17,119,616-21.7%22.0%(178,463)(178,463)Philadelphia48,467,044-744,72014.8%15.8%(446,617)(446,617)Pitts

57、burgh48,898,455-472,00013.6%13.8%(430,235)(430,235)Washington,DC146,829,047 105,200 808,157 17.9%18.2%(436,834)(436,834)South400,236,536 2,087,070 13,958,292 16.5%16.9%(1,425,597)(1,425,597)Atlanta58,181,555-2,182,29518.0%18.4%(328,798)(328,798)Austin15,527,003 796,525 2,587,370 20.8%21.5%(37,928)(3

58、7,928)Birmingham19,430,201 0 83,881 10.1%10.2%(21,667)(21,667)Charleston3,250,358 320,175 140,000 14.7%15.5%60,517 60,517 Charlotte34,016,394 337,708 1,382,220 12.7%16.1%(917,449)(917,449)Columbia4,676,145-50,00012.8%18.4%(146,703)(146,703)Dallas-Fort Worth42,215,823-26.8%27.5%(296,541)(296,541)Dall

59、as33,180,140-28.9%30.4%(489,468)(489,468)Fort Worth9,035,683-18.9%16.8%192,927 192,927 Greenville Spartanburg4,056,564 141,081 110,000 17.2%18.4%(35,909)(35,909)Houston42,877,219-386,32328.3%26.1%145,484 145,484 Huntsville4,037,215 77,000-4.6%5.9%20,130 20,130 Jacksonville15,719,913-11.4%10.8%95,633

60、 95,633 Memphis5,965,851-30,00012.4%12.5%(3,390)(3,390)Nashville18,077,637-2,268,38015.0%14.6%14,154 14,154 Norfolk3,351,037-18.6%18.2%(10,907)(10,907)Orlando10,592,007-13.5%15.6%(225,559)(225,559)Raleigh/Durham12,433,569 257,973-14.8%16.2%286,613 286,613 Richmond10,297,557-14.4%14.9%(47,071)(47,071

61、)Savannah757,707-8.4%9.6%0 0 U.S.Research Report|Q1 2023|Office Market Outlook|7Mar 31,2023Q1 2023Mar 31,2023Q4 2022Q1 2023Q1 2023MarketInventory (SF)New Supply(SF)Under Construction(SF)Vacancy RateVacancy RateAbsorption(SF)YTD Absorption(SF)South Florida82,218,567 156,608 4,737,823 10.7%10.8%50,525

62、 50,525 Fort Lauderdale28,773,933 70,000 70,609 11.3%11.1%64,882 64,882 Miami30,166,919 86,608 3,895,123 11.9%11.9%95,848 95,848 Palm Beach23,277,715-772,0918.5%9.0%(110,205)(110,205)Tampa Bay12,554,214-8.7%10.0%(26,731)(26,731)West412,100,389 535,124 11,435,405 20.1%20.9%(2,754,643)(2,754,643)Baker

63、sfield3,984,081 6,500-9.3%9.7%(7,300)(7,300)Boise7,663,506-6.0%7.4%(135,910)(135,910)Denver41,854,011-1,704,62221.7%23.3%(591,219)(591,219)Fresno3,570,941 94,439-6.4%5.3%126,089 126,089 Greater Los Angeles37,855,281-230,00025.1%26.2%(403,495)(403,495)Honolulu6,537,357-14.0%15.1%(64,072)(64,072)Las V

64、egas5,208,354-10.7%9.8%46,779 46,779 Phoenix23,004,316-20.9%22.3%(384,641)(384,641)Portland25,707,764 134,185 158,464 25.3%25.9%(75,779)(75,779)Reno/Sparks1,646,056-80,50510.7%11.8%(20,204)(20,204)Sacramento10,167,813-19.4%19.8%(62,208)(62,208)Salt Lake City12,750,867-18.3%19.2%6,291 6,291 San Diego

65、10,916,806-681,44226.3%27.3%(108,308)(108,308)San Francisco Bay Area137,726,158 300,000 2,193,266 21.1%21.8%(818,562)(818,562)East Bay30,036,241-18.8%19.2%(14,842)(14,842)San Francisco98,423,460 300,000 1,125,000 22.2%23.0%(778,934)(778,934)Silicon Valley9,266,457-1,068,26617.8%17.8%(24,786)(24,786)

66、Seattle/Puget Sound75,921,532-6,387,10617.6%18.1%(326,541)(326,541)Stockton7,585,546-8.8%8.0%64,43764,437Downtown-All(Continued)U.S.Research Report|Q1 2023|Office Market Outlook|8Downtown-Class AMar.31,2023Q4 2022Q1 2023Q1 2023MarketInventory (SF)Avg.Annual Quoted Rent(USD/SF)Vacancy Rate Vacancy Ra

67、teAbsorption (SF)Quarterly Change In RentAnnual Change In RentUSA1,248,222,773$52.4217.1%17.7%(7,757,025)-0.8%-1.3%Midwest180,445,568$36.4817.8%18.7%(1,735,075)-0.1%0.4%Chicago79,989,882$49.0516.8%17.9%(1,016,496)0.2%1.3%Cincinnati8,432,745$23.2217.2%18.8%(128,876)-2.2%-0.6%Cleveland/Akron Metro10,8

68、41,337$22.5316.2%16.5%(28,001)0.2%1.0%Dayton2,642,216$18.4334.0%34.2%(5,446)-0.2%1.4%Detroit9,154,973$28.5711.5%19.2%(674,095)-0.8%-2.1%Indianapolis6,608,314$25.2123.5%24.3%8,850 0.5%-1.0%Kansas City11,359,896$23.2919.6%20.6%16,609 1.6%2.6%Milwaukee9,319,465$25.9121.1%20.8%161,111 2.0%-Minneapolis-S

69、t.Paul30,666,234$35.4818.2%17.4%(98,880)-Omaha3,215,771$32.968.1%8.8%(5,141)-3.7%-St.Louis8,214,735$20.3822.5%22.7%35,290 1.7%0.9%Northeast589,522,809$67.3514.2%14.6%(3,102,903)-1.5%-4.2%Baltimore17,811,994$26.6918.0%17.9%17,367 1.1%-Boston50,060,551$71.0615.3%17.3%(1,002,238)1.9%1.5%Hartford8,772,2

70、04$22.1018.8%18.7%7,763 0.2%0.5%New York City Metro358,451,212$77.5012.5%12.9%(1,021,712)-1.6%-3.1%Manhattan344,659,976$80.1712.0%12.4%(880,375)-1.6%-2.7%NYC Northern Suburbs13,791,236$43.4924.7%24.8%(141,337)-0.4%-2.4%Philadelphia33,319,737$35.3714.8%15.9%(389,176)1.5%4.0%Pittsburgh25,760,664$29.94

71、16.3%16.2%(509,542)-3.6%-5.0%Washington,DC95,346,447$59.4917.8%18.0%(205,365)-0.3%-1.4%South233,353,861$40.5120.9%21.2%(617,179)-0.1%3.3%Atlanta40,867,940$37.8622.7%23.4%(315,253)-0.7%1.3%Austin11,362,471$68.5024.0%23.9%(2,769)0.0%4.4%Birmingham3,790,388$23.0023.2%24.7%(31,895)-0.4%5.3%Charleston1,9

72、52,303$41.2214.7%16.7%51,284-Charlotte24,613,064$39.1814.8%17.3%(367,101)1.3%3.0%Columbia2,365,695$23.599.7%12.2%(16,329)-0.8%-1.1%Dallas-Fort Worth29,873,116$31.3931.0%32.5%(444,270)-0.1%4.8%Dallas24,716,228$31.3533.9%35.8%(465,302)-0.2%5.1%Fort Worth5,156,888$31.7717.2%16.8%21,032 1.0%1.3%Greenvil

73、le Spartanburg1,753,155$31.143.5%1.8%4,601-Houston35,202,314$43.1127.3%24.6%76,891-4.3%-1.9%Huntsville790,180$27.8514.3%19.1%27,402 2.7%13.7%Jacksonville7,148,357$23.6218.0%17.5%33,990 0.0%0.2%Memphis2,554,686$20.1917.9%18.4%(10,693)0.7%6.0%Nashville9,251,865$37.9516.0%16.3%15,284 0.1%0.5%Norfolk1,9

74、00,520$28.4221.8%20.8%(6,740)0.7%0.7%Orlando7,346,044$28.3214.6%17.4%(210,356)-0.4%-4.6%Raleigh/Durham8,820,293$36.4915.9%17.4%272,026-0.3%-1.4%Richmond4,249,354$25.0513.2%14.1%(15,830)0.2%-1.5%Savannah631,794$26.428.7%8.7%0 10.2%7.5%U.S.Research Report|Q1 2023|Office Market Outlook|9Mar.31,2023Q4 2

75、022Q1 2023Q1 2023MarketInventory (SF)Avg.Annual Quoted Rent(USD/SF)Vacancy Rate Vacancy RateAbsorption (SF)Quarterly Change In RentAnnual Change In RentSouth Florida30,543,049$65.0115.9%15.7%234,770 4.3%-Fort Lauderdale8,576,330$47.0117.9%16.3%130,825-1.3%0.8%Miami14,142,531$73.9018.0%18.5%102,152 6

76、.0%-Palm Beach7,824,188$63.9510.0%9.9%1,793 1.3%-Tampa Bay8,337,273$35.9810.8%11.3%87,809 0.2%3.4%West244,900,535$52.4320.1%21.1%(2,301,868)-0.8%0.5%Bakersfield872,282$21.126.8%8.7%(16,217)-6.2%3.5%Denver28,987,473$38.4422.9%25.0%(536,351)0.2%-1.6%Fresno1,176,603$21.246.4%3.8%119,264 0.0%1.7%Greater

77、 Los Angeles20,590,573$39.2117.9%19.4%(309,379)-6.9%-9.7%Honolulu4,632,227$36.7111.6%12.4%(26,365)-0.4%0.0%Las Vegas1,242,974$27.3120.5%19.4%13,182-0.1%-1.7%Phoenix10,904,385$29.7028.1%32.2%(466,655)-2.1%-1.2%Portland13,924,337$32.4924.7%24.0%(43,070)-1.0%-9.8%Reno/Sparks585,732$25.457.4%5.8%7,178-6

78、.6%-7.0%Sacramento5,320,037$40.3715.7%16.4%(36,431)-1.2%-1.1%Salt Lake City4,827,398$37.7717.1%15.5%31,307 4.3%4.0%San Diego7,642,474$37.3226.4%26.8%(30,232)0.6%-4.6%San Francisco Bay Area90,407,062$70.9320.6%21.3%(548,670)-1.4%-1.9%East Bay19,456,506$49.5019.6%20.6%(89,527)-2.3%-4.8%San Francisco66

79、,003,376$79.2121.1%21.8%(427,844)-1.0%-2.5%Silicon Valley4,947,180$62.2316.3%17.0%(31,299)-0.7%-2.5%Seattle/Puget Sound50,935,886$55.7317.5%18.4%(451,230)2.0%2.0%Stockton2,851,092$28.358.1%8.4%(8,199)-Downtown-Class A(Continued)U.S.Research Report|Q1 2023|Office Market Outlook|10Suburban-AllMar.31,2

80、023Q1 2023Mar.31,2023Q4 2022Q1 2023Q1 2023MarketInventory (SF)New Supply (SF)Under Construction(SF)Vacancy RateVacancy RateAbsorption (SF)YTD Absorption(SF)USA4,281,676,2847,547,87941,115,36915.4%15.8%(13,285,641)(13,285,641)Midwest180,445,568$36.4817.8%18.7%(1,735,075)-0.1%0.4%Chicago159,263,15681,

81、544-20.0%19.6%4,226 4,226 Cincinnati43,770,875-103,00017.0%17.5%(182,704)(182,704)Cleveland/Akron Metro45,926,819-1,187,63712.4%12.2%(215,482)(215,482)Dayton9,433,55423,00060,00016.9%17.2%(2,067)(2,067)Detroit167,509,18478,0001,000,42413.8%13.5%2,578 2,578 Grand Rapids30,944,31926,0003,6968.1%8.5%(1

82、28,835)(128,835)Indianapolis29,739,037-77,78019.3%20.3%(183,877)(183,877)Kansas City65,903,244-840,30712.2%13.4%(546,169)(546,169)Milwaukee30,138,19770,784-17.4%17.9%(78,124)(78,124)Minneapolis-St.Paul107,027,474-175,40010.0%10.2%(146,047)(146,047)Omaha27,313,35614,518397,6009.9%9.1%103,956 103,956

83、St.Louis40,686,839489,585112,00019.2%19.3%(8,853)(8,853)Northeast1,052,115,898923,5805,471,65115.8%16.4%(5,523,239)(5,523,239)Baltimore Metropolitan Area77,298,208-324,67912.8%13.0%(177,892)(177,892)Boston119,137,770-422,00016.9%18.5%(1,933,843)(1,933,843)Hartford34,116,686-12.2%13.7%(425,512)(425,5

84、12)New Hampshire Markets23,643,409-42,00011.7%12.1%(170,055)(170,055)New York City Metro329,076,30173,580538,30214.8%15.4%(1,288,987)(1,288,987)Central New Jersey85,271,517-15.9%16.4%(457,429)(457,429)Long Island68,213,49473,58087,6109.0%9.6%(152,919)(152,919)Northern New Jersey112,483,653-233,66816

85、.6%18.0%(1,476,195)(1,476,195)NYC Northern Suburbs63,107,637-217,02416.5%15.9%797,556 797,556 Philadelphia106,128,401-350,25217.3%18.0%(609,429)(609,429)Pittsburgh73,859,191-224,62111.5%11.9%(355,984)(355,984)Washington,DC288,855,932850,0003,569,79718.6%18.8%(561,537)(561,537)Washington,DC-Northern

86、Virginia197,060,210850,0002,838,95619.3%19.7%(451,268)(451,268)Washington,DC-Suburban Maryland91,795,722-730,84117.1%17.0%(110,269)(110,269)South1,310,475,1014,507,86917,710,73116.2%16.4%(1,953,961)(1,953,961)Atlanta178,004,528397,137945,27516.6%16.6%232,901 232,901 Austin60,331,284838,1392,831,5282

87、0.0%22.4%(917,035)(917,035)Birmingham43,663,28056,842-10.2%10.6%194,986 194,986 Charleston8,938,376421,186426,40018.7%17.5%84,497 84,497 Charlotte66,151,891-1,859,65816.4%13.3%375,352 375,352 Columbia8,922,678515,678-13.9%16.3%(72,031)(72,031)Dallas-Fort Worth273,028,3071,254,4476,623,79418.8%19.5%(

88、830,791)(830,791)Dallas253,560,4631,254,4476,385,13419.3%20.0%(728,877)(728,877)Fort Worth19,467,844-238,66013.1%13.7%(101,914)(101,914)Greenville Spartanburg10,636,603296,448504,99714.0%15.8%(90,252)(90,252)Houston193,599,858-1,527,73822.1%22.4%(239,911)(239,911)Huntsville19,745,507297,842-8.9%9.6%

89、151,583 151,583 Jacksonville39,195,20439,7641,418,85610.2%10.2%46,914 46,914 Memphis40,515,202-13.3%10.3%(65,530)(65,530)Nashville43,121,349126,000227,00015.4%15.6%24,717 24,717 Norfolk20,347,963-80,00013.4%13.6%(132,564)(132,564)U.S.Research Report|Q1 2023|Office Market Outlook|11Suburban-All(Conti

90、nued)Mar.31,2023Q1 2023Mar.31,2023Q4 2022Q1 2023Q1 2023MarketInventory (SF)New Supply (SF)Under Construction(SF)Vacancy RateVacancy RateAbsorption (SF)YTD Absorption(SF)Orlando42,768,817-278,91713.1%13.4%(137,063)(137,063)Raleigh/Durham51,355,145141,170-13.2%15.1%(304,806)(304,806)Richmond15,531,619

91、-14.8%15.1%11,172 11,172 Savannah1,565,743-7.3%4.1%47,505 47,505 South Florida131,143,90248,216955,5649.9%9.9%(156,576)(156,576)Fort Lauderdale34,723,895-111,75612.5%12.5%(85,292)(85,292)Miami67,211,52748,216574,2069.3%9.3%111,921 111,921 Palm Beach29,208,480-269,6028.1%8.4%(183,205)(183,205)Tampa B

92、ay61,907,84575,00031,00414.4%15.0%(177,029)(177,029)West1,161,429,2311,332,99913,975,14314.6%15.0%(4,427,043)(4,427,043)Bakersfield6,847,31514,914-8.6%9.6%(60,525)(60,525)Boise25,751,01991,824447,3514.3%5.8%(295,951)(295,951)Central Idaho2,605,687001.1%0.3%22,088 22,088 Denver129,738,929353,0001,242

93、,87514.0%14.4%(398,185)(398,185)Eastern Idaho6,911,340-4.5%4.9%(54,631)(54,631)Fresno19,143,127-7.2%7.3%(30,590)(30,590)Greater Los Angeles288,462,023180,5841,111,47519.2%20.3%(1,542,833)(1,542,833)Inland Empire20,028,155-9.8%9.6%36,041 36,041 Los Angeles183,294,533180,5841,111,47520.8%21.7%(336,316

94、)(336,316)Orange County85,139,335-18.0%19.7%(1,242,558)(1,242,558)Honolulu7,242,673-45,00011.9%12.4%(39,259)(39,259)Las Vegas41,435,615404,623230,80012.0%12.5%154,201 154,201 Phoenix140,931,390138,054638,01318.3%17.8%(175,637)(175,637)Portland49,977,469-100,00014.1%14.5%(370,175)(370,175)Reno/Sparks

95、6,128,743-9.8%9.8%9,511 9,511 Sacramento47,528,728-20,00018.6%19.5%(402,091)(402,091)Salt Lake City47,717,368-817,80814.5%15.5%(597,960)(597,960)San Diego71,812,443-421,17810.3%11.0%(297,080)(297,080)San Francisco Bay Area212,722,002150,0007,350,64311.0%11.0%(396,107)(396,107)East Bay49,892,419150,0

96、00611,75114.0%14.6%(443,508)(443,508)Fairfield,CA5,283,489-15.5%14.8%19,186 19,186 San Francisco Peninsula46,486,359-1,586,9398.7%8.8%(149,338)(149,338)Silicon Valley111,059,735-5,151,95310.4%10.1%177,553 177,553 Seattle/Puget Sound56,473,360-1,550,00012.7%12.0%48,181 48,181 U.S.Research Report|Q1 2

97、023|Office Market Outlook|12Suburban-Class AMar.31,2023Q4 2022Q1 2023Q1 2023MarketInventory (SF)Avg.Annual Quoted Rent(USD/SF)Vacancy RateVacancy RateAbsorption(SF)Quarterly Change In RentAnnual Change In RentUSA1,828,530,330$34.2017.8%18.3%(3,088,987)0.4%0.1%Midwest251,657,310$27.1518.3%18.5%(1,045

98、,890)-0.1%0.6%Chicago74,189,252$30.1925.4%24.4%65,035 0.5%2.2%Cincinnati18,911,156$23.3717.6%18.3%(71,817)0.5%4.1%Cleveland/Akron Metro13,142,207$20.4513.9%14.5%(208,629)0.2%1.9%Dayton2,724,733$24.5416.6%16.9%(21,343)-3.2%0.5%Detroit41,620,489$22.5414.0%13.7%(181,214)0.7%0.2%Indianapolis14,140,412$2

99、4.0622.5%23.4%(62,864)0.8%2.0%Kansas City21,351,482$23.4011.0%14.6%(659,088)-2.1%0.7%Milwaukee12,211,488$19.5915.8%15.7%113,891 2.7%-6.4%Minneapolis-St.Paul25,293,548$36.5513.1%13.1%10,428-Omaha7,272,448$35.8312.0%10.6%80,689-St.Louis20,800,095$26.6120.5%21.0%(110,978)-0.6%0.0%Northeast508,929,100$3

100、1.8817.5%18.5%(4,024,855)0.2%1.8%Baltimore33,634,838$27.1315.5%15.7%(69,877)-3.7%-Boston53,487,699$35.2116.3%18.5%(1,350,712)1.8%-Hartford6,376,880$21.5016.2%21.9%(365,809)0.4%1.7%New Hampshire Markets7,527,549$25.1013.0%16.8%(260,418)2.5%7.2%New York City Metro191,591,535$32.0816.3%17.1%(1,147,194)

101、1.3%2.4%Central New Jersey56,322,432$29.0715.3%16.1%(602,054)0.4%0.3%Long Island24,748,677$31.1311.0%12.4%(261,054)0.8%7.3%Northern New Jersey78,531,598$34.0717.5%18.8%(1,041,833)1.8%1.5%NYC Northern Suburbs31,988,828$31.4119.3%18.2%757,747 1.0%3.3%Philadelphia55,746,672$29.5815.5%16.9%(625,544)1.0%

102、2.4%Pittsburgh17,955,523$24.4023.8%24.7%(226,824)-2.5%-3.6%Washington,DC142,608,404$35.2320.4%20.7%21,523 0.0%0.0%Washington,DC-Northern Virginia96,657,136$37.9420.6%21.1%97,673 0.0%0.7%Washington,DC-Suburban Maryland45,951,268$29.9420.1%19.9%(76,150)-1.9%-1.6%South581,893,557$33.0820.1%20.7%(493,12

103、7)0.2%2.3%Atlanta92,026,693$31.5721.2%21.2%11,577-0.3%0.0%Austin27,627,640$42.4719.2%22.5%(272,739)0.4%3.8%Birmingham10,033,394$22.2514.6%15.5%(5,573)-2.5%-3.3%Charleston2,815,706$32.2921.3%23.2%8,513-Charlotte26,233,012$33.7421.4%19.6%478,113 0.9%4.4%Columbia2,448,463$20.3227.6%27.0%(61,117)-6.9%8.

104、9%Dallas-Fort Worth142,697,847$35.7521.3%22.1%(507,928)-0.1%4.0%Dallas137,723,675$35.8621.4%22.3%(461,038)-0.1%4.0%Fort Worth4,974,172$29.5917.5%18.4%(46,890)1.1%3.7%Greenville Spartanburg4,642,482$26.1413.5%18.7%(63,675)-Houston103,552,060$31.5224.4%25.1%(27,977)0.1%0.0%Huntsville3,447,601$23.9211.

105、9%15.7%(40,219)5.8%9.7%Jacksonville11,386,449$25.0010.4%10.4%22,401 6.5%3.3%Memphis8,671,937$24.3714.4%13.6%69,610 0.7%3.2%Nashville18,645,190$35.0520.2%19.5%60,503 1.2%3.0%Norfolk9,277,870$21.5912.3%11.8%(28,121)0.2%-0.2%Orlando16,765,716$27.8617.2%17.4%(32,074)-1.6%1.7%U.S.Research Report|Q1 2023|

106、Office Market Outlook|13Suburban-Class A(Continued)Mar.31,2023Q4 2022Q1 2023Q1 2023MarketInventory (SF)Avg.Annual Quoted Rent(USD/SF)Vacancy RateVacancy RateAbsorption(SF)Quarterly Change In RentAnnual Change In RentRaleigh/Durham27,105,408$30.4416.6%19.2%(147,615)0.5%-0.6%Richmond8,926,102$21.5816.

107、6%17.4%(46,179)0.5%-1.1%Savannah554,276$30.197.4%2.0%30,062-South Florida42,534,942$42.4015.5%15.4%114,901-1.5%1.8%Fort Lauderdale12,556,940$37.6118.0%17.2%113,301-2.7%-1.5%Miami20,589,512$45.6816.7%15.9%156,583 0.1%3.9%Palm Beach9,388,490$42.429.4%11.7%(154,983)-2.4%3.0%Tampa Bay22,500,769$32.6419.

108、1%19.6%(55,590)6.9%8.4%West488,003,760$43.0917.7%18.4%(2,216,693)0.2%-1.0%Bakersfield3,080,826$25.889.5%11.3%(63,276)9.4%14.1%Denver50,228,523$29.6416.5%17.1%(371,368)-1.3%-3.5%Fresno1,386,567$23.4711.3%9.6%22,682-1.7%-3.7%Greater Los Angeles161,563,050$44.9422.1%23.1%(485,615)-1.0%-3.7%Inland Empir

109、e5,175,628$30.729.8%8.9%45,902 1.2%0.5%Los Angeles118,884,010$48.5322.3%23.3%43,122-0.8%-4.9%Orange County37,503,412$35.5723.0%24.5%(574,639)-0.5%-2.8%Las Vegas6,355,325$35.9422.1%22.1%280,661 1.6%5.9%Phoenix49,480,847$32.4524.5%24.0%87,928 0.3%5.8%Portland13,559,287$31.1217.9%19.2%(173,063)-3.3%-1.

110、6%Reno/Sparks1,043,152$27.8316.4%17.9%(8,982)2.5%-Sacramento14,319,546$27.2219.9%24.2%(516,409)2.8%2.6%Salt Lake City22,992,939$27.9113.8%16.0%(579,611)-4.1%-2.3%San Diego26,017,148$43.9212.4%13.3%(98,167)0.6%2.9%San Francisco Bay Area123,444,294$62.9811.7%11.7%(298,130)0.1%0.7%East Bay20,813,579$40

111、.6017.8%20.0%(534,061)-0.9%-1.3%Fairfield,CA2,202,660$29.9117.4%18.6%9,275-2.3%4.0%San Francisco Peninsula29,236,830$79.367.5%7.3%(34,577)-2.4%1.7%Silicon Valley71,191,225$70.6911.4%10.8%261,233 2.1%0.7%Seattle/Puget Sound14,532,256$34.4415.4%13.7%(13,343)2.7%-8.4%U.S.Research Report|Q1 2023|Office

112、Market Outlook|14Office ServicesMichael LirtzmanHead of Office Agency Leasing|U.S.+1 312 612 ResearchSteig Seaward Senior National DirectorResearch|U.S.+1 303 888 Stephen Newbold National DirectorOffice Research|U.S.+1 202 534 Occupier ServicesThis document/email has been prepared by Colliers for ad

113、vertising and general information only.Colliers makes no guarantees,representations or warranties of any kind,expressed or implied,regarding the information including,but not limited to,warranties of content,accuracy and reliability.Any interested party should undertake their own inquiries as to the

114、 accuracy of the information.Colliers excludes unequivocally all inferred or implied terms,conditions and warranties arising out of this document and excludes all liability for loss and damages arising there from.This publication is the copyrighted property of Colliers and/or its licensor(s).2023.All rights reserved.This communication is not intended to cause or induce breach of an existing listing agreement.Scott Nelson CEOOccupier Services|Global+1 470 386 Chris Zlocki Head of Client Experience|Executive Vice PresidentOccupier Services|Global+1 313 595