1、November 2022The Garden State in bloom:Cultivating New Jerseys workforce of tomorrowMcKinsey&CompanyMcKinsey&Company is a global management-consulting firm deeply committed to helping institutions in the private,public,and social sectors achieve lasting success.For more than 90 years,our primary obj
2、ective has been to serve as our clients most trusted external adviser.With consultants in more than 100 cities and in over 60 markets across industries and functions,we bring unparalleled expertise to clients all over the world.We work closely with teams at all levels of an organization to shape win
3、ning strategies,mobilize for change,build capabilities,and drive successful execution.All photography Getty Images.PrefaceOver the past 15 years,the United States has endured two vastly different economic crises.The Great Recession of 200809 was financial in nature,while the COVID-19 pandemic delive
4、red shocks across the economy that are still reverberating in the form of supply chain disruptions,inflation,and a potential recession.The way in which New Jersey was able to rebound from each crisis shines a light on its foundational strengths.The states workforce is a vital component to continue f
5、ueling economic growth:a sufficient pool of qualified talent is the engine to support the expansion of businesses across industries.Therefore,efforts to develop and retain talent are critical to achieve sustained,inclusive economic growth.New Jersey is facing a persistent labor shortage that could b
6、ecome much more acute in the coming years.This shortfall not only threatens continued expansion but also reflects a disparity in access to opportunities for individuals and communities.While many states face similar challenges,New Jersey has a set of strengths that can help it build a distinctive st
7、rategy to make the state a talent magnet in the region.This report offers nonpartisan research and analysis on New Jerseys workforce:historical and recent trends,foundational strengths and assets,and opportunities to mobilize workers in the state,including individuals who left the labor force during
8、 the pandemic.We offer a set of recommendationswhat we call“bold bets”that could serve as the basis for coordinated action across government,business,academia,and nonprofits.Success will be measured not only on economic growth but also better outcomes for New Jersey residents and communities.New Jer
9、seys leaders have the opportunity to build on the states current economic momentum.Strategic investments and engagement can create a better future for residents.AcknowledgmentsThis report reflects a collaboration among McKinseys New Jersey office;McKinseys Social Sector,Healthcare,and Public Sector
10、Practices;and the McKinsey Global Institute.McKinsey senior partners Jocelyn Grahame and Steve Van Kuiken and associate partner Rafael Rivera led this research,together with senior partners Aaron De Smet and Zachary Surak and partner Mike Kerlin.Natasha Korgaonkar,a consultant in McKinseys New Jerse
11、y office,and Romina Mendoza,a consultant in the San Jos office,led the project team,which consisted of Angie Cui,Henry Eckrich,Kriti Jindal,Thomas Pesce,Mansoor Safi,Ben Wang,and Caton Yang.We are grateful for the advice and input of many McKinsey colleagues and experts:senior partner David Nuzum an
12、d partner Ellen Feehan for their detailed review and input on local context;Andrew Shearer and Edgar Estrada for their help with external relations;and Rachel Schaff,Tim Bacon,Ping Wen,and Gurneet Singh Dandona for their expertise and guidance on navigating databases and proprietary data on labor ma
13、rkets and future of work trends.Many leaders in New Jersey have offered invaluable guidance,suggestions,and advice.We thank them for their willingness to help us shape this research.The final report relied heavily on McKinsey Publishing for its production,content,and graphics expertise.Aaron De Smet
14、Senior Partner,New Jersey Jocelyn GrahameSenior Partner,New Jersey Rafael RiveraAssociate Partner,New Jersey Zachary SurakSenior Partner,New Jersey Steve Van KuikenSenior Partner,New JerseyiThe Garden State in bloom:Cultivating New Jerseys workforce of tomorrowContents1Executive summary8Chapter 1:Gr
15、owth and resilience in the Garden State16Chapter 2:Challenges to sustained,inclusive growth32Chapter 3:Cultivating the workforce of tomorrow40EndnotesiiThe Garden State in bloom:Cultivating New Jerseys workforce of tomorrowGrowth and resilience in the Garden StateOver the past several years,all US s
16、tates had to respond to the sudden,dramatic shocks caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.During one of the most challenging downturns of our generation,New Jerseys economy weathered the impact of the pandemic and bounced back faster than it had in previous crises.After the low point of the Great Recession
17、 in 2008,New Jersey spent the better part of eight years working its way back to precrisis levels,but then growth accelerated.From 2015 to 2019,the states GDP grew 2.4 times faster than during the 201015 period.The pandemic disrupted this steady growth:during the first year of the crisis,New Jerseys
18、 economy and labor market both declined:GDP contracted by 4.6 percent,exceeding the US average of 3.4 percent.1In addition,New Jerseys labor market lost 717,000 jobs,with employment dropping from 4.2 million in February 2020 to 3.5 million in April 2020.2 The economic fallout from the pandemic was n
19、ot equally distributed among New Jerseys workforce.In 2020,Black and Hispanic workers were 77 and 60 percent more likely to be unemployed,respectively,than White workers.3Despite this drop,New Jerseys GDP bounced back to prepandemic levels in the third quarter of 2021,and the total level of employme
20、nt rebounded in the third quarter of 2022.Federal and state governments undertook policies aimed at reducing the impact of the pandemic,including the Economic Recovery Act of 2020,a seven-year,$14 billion package of tax incentives,financing,and grant programs.New Jerseys economic growth in the secon
21、d half of the past decade and the recovery from the economic effects of the COVID-10 pandemic were fueled by several foundational attributes:An economy anchored in a set of high-growth industries Over the past decade,a few strategic industries have made the largest contributions to the states employ
22、ment growth:administrative,management,and business services;finance and insurance;healthcare and social assistance;professional,scientific,and technical services;and transportation and warehousing.Together,these industries employ more than 1.6 million people,accounting for 40percent of the total non
23、farm employment in the state.Those industries not only are overrepresented in New Jersey but also have grown faster than in the rest of the United States in the second part of the past decade.Together with accommodation and food services,whose growth will be fueled by its continued recovery to prepa
24、ndemic levels,those industries are expected to create 130,000 jobs over the next decade,leading the charge in job creation.A highly educated,diverse talent pool and top-tier educational and research institutionsForty-four percent of adult residents had earned at least a bachelors degree as of 2020,o
25、utpacing nearly all peer states in the region and far above the US average of 34 percent.4 In 2021,New Jerseys more than 70 higher-education institutions enrolled more than 400,000 students and conferred more than 67,000 bachelors and advanced degrees.5 The states talent engine is particularly effec
26、tive in the science,technology,engineering,and math disciplines:its share of Executive summary 1The Garden State in bloom:Cultivating New Jerseys workforce of tomorrowSTEM graduates,at 17 percent of all graduates,ranks fourth in the country.6A magnet for investment and research Spurring innovation a
27、cross industries requires a number of elements to be in place,from infrastructure and talent to investment capital.New Jersey has a robust network of innovation centers in the private sector,led by top global companies and promising start-ups.New Jersey ranks ninth among states for total venture cap
28、ital investments,bringing in more than$9 billion from 2019 to 2021($5.5 billion in 2021 alone),7 a sevenfold increase on an annual basis from 2019 to 2021.An economy with an enviable geographic position at the crossroads of commerce Approximately$2.8 trillion in GDP is generated within 150 miles of
29、the state,8 which has easy access to all major cities on the Eastern Seaboard.New Jerseys air-and seaports make the state a hub for global passenger travel and shipping.In addition,the Port of New York and New Jersey,the largest port on the East Coast,is the gateway to one of the most concentrated c
30、onsumer markets in North America.9Challenges to sustained,inclusive growthTwo barriers to the continued growth of New Jerseys economy are a widening talent shortage and the persistent disparities in economic prosperity across all social groups.The lack of a sufficient pool of qualified workers could
31、 slow the economys momentum and stifle business investment.At the same time,Black and Hispanic residents have not reached the same levels of prosperity and access to quality jobs as the rest of the states population.A comprehensive,inclusive talent strategy can be an engine for economic growth,helpi
32、ng businesses find the talent they need,creating opportunities for the underserved,and unlocking the full potential of New Jerseys economy for all of its residents.A persistent and growing talent gapNew Jersey has faced a talent gapa mismatch between the demand for skilled workers and the supplysinc
33、e before 2010,but the gap has increased in recent years(Exhibit E1).This talent gap could slow growth because the states production of qualified talent is not keeping pace with increased business development and job demand.New Jerseys GDP bounced back to prepandemic levels in the third quarter of 20
34、21,and the total level of employment rebounded in the third quarter of 2022.2The Garden State in bloom:Cultivating New Jerseys workforce of tomorrowWe analyzed the talent gap from the perspective of both workers and employers.Understanding these factors will be instrumental in crafting effective str
35、ategies to narrow New Jerseys labor shortages.The workers perspective:Labor force participation,mobility,and training The overall supply of talent is influenced by a number of factors.The labor force participation rate for New Jerseys working-age population(those aged 16 and above)has declined stead
36、ily over the past 10 years,from 66 percent in 2012 to 63 percent in 2022,the lowest in 44 years.10In addition,New Jersey is a net exporter of talent:from 2011 to 2021,an average of 20,000 residents(net of inflows)migrated to other states or countries each year.Similarly,in 2020,New Jersey had a 38pe
37、rcent retention rate of newly graduated college students,which trailed New York(52 percent)and Pennsylvania(45 percent).11An added challenge is that more than half of the current talent gap is for positions that typically require some postsecondary training.These occupations account for nearly two-t
38、hirds of forecast job growth in New Jersey.12 Among the top 15 occupations with unfilled positions requiring a bachelors degree,11 have at least twice as many unfilled job postings than there are graduates each year(Exhibit E2).Without a sufficient increase in graduates in healthcare,IT,and business
39、 programs,companies may face added difficulty in finding qualified talent.Exhibit E1Labor force and unflled positions in New Jersey,thousands,annual monthly average1Defned as seasonally adjusted unflled positions in New Jersey,as published by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics Job Openings and Labor
40、Turnover Survey.2Latest confrmed data available through June 2022 for unflled positions and July 2022 for labor force.Source:Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey,US Bureau of Labor Statistics;Local Area Unemployment Statistics,US Bureau of Labor Statistics Today,New Jersey faces a growing talent g
41、ap that could slow economic growth.McKinsey&Company201020152020 2022YTD2201020152020 2022YTD2Unflled positions1Total labor force501001502002503004,0005,0004,2004,4004,6004,800The labor force grew only 0.2%annually from 2010 to 2022.The talent gap grew 7%annually from 2010 to 2019,and during the latt
42、er half of the decade saw an acceleration.3The Garden State in bloom:Cultivating New Jerseys workforce of tomorrowThe employer perspective:Practices that could potentially screen out qualified candidatesThree-quarters of US companies use automated recruiting systems,with standard filters such as deg
43、ree requirements or years of experience,to sift through applications.Companies in New Jersey might be able to expand their candidate pools by adopting more flexible requirements for Exhibit E2Top 15 occupations with largest talent shortage that typically require associates degree or above11Active jo
44、b postings from Lightcast,representing jobs employers are actively looking to fll.Associates degree or above includes associates,bachelors,masters,doctoral,and professional degrees.2Graduates from educational programs(postsecondary nondegree,associates,bachelors,and above)who are likely to take an o
45、ccupation;we developed a 1:1 completion occupation-matching analysis to prevent double counting completions.3Supply gap,defned as the ratio between average monthly unflled job postings and total annual graduates,is a proxy for talent gap.4Includes medical dosimetrists,medical records specialists,and
46、 health technologists and technicians.Source:Lightcast 2022Occupations with the largest talent shortages are in healthcare,information technology,and management.McKinsey&CompanyAverage monthly unflled job postings(talent shortage),thousands,2021Total annual graduates,2 thousands,2021Supply gap3ratio
47、,low(2.0)Registered nursesSoftware developers and testersHealth technologists and technicians4Medical and health-services managersComputer relatedGeneral and operations managersNursing assistantsMarketing managersLicensed practical and licensed vocational nursesMedical assistants Sales managersHuman
48、 resources specialistsAutomotive-service technicians and mechanicsManagement analystsProject management specialists=0.51.00.70.50.80.80.80.62.12.87.03.22.50.91.73.34.51.02.42.42.12.70.610.14.86.33.23.23.12.82.72.22.21.91.91.81.71.71.61.23.01.61.93.02.24The Garden State in bloom:Cultivating New Jerse
49、ys workforce of tomorrowoccupations with high levels of unfilled positions.For example,our analysis suggests New Jersey could have 330,000 to 740,000“hidden workers”that is,skilled individuals who are unemployed or underemployed but often find themselves blocked from consideration for higher-wage jo
50、bs,as well as those who gave up looking for work but want to reenter the labor markets.Growing disparities in economic opportunities Economic opportunity and outcomes arent equally distributed across the states population.Our analysis of economic outcomes in New Jersey reveals existing inequality al
51、ong racial and ethnic groups and gender lines.In addition,by 2030,job displacement from automation could reach more than one million jobsequal to almost one-quarter of the states labor force(Exhibit E3).Racial minorities are overrepresented in jobs that are more likely to be displaced by automation
52、in the upcoming years.As higher-skill occupations make up a greater share of New Jerseys job growth and some are displaced by automation and digital technologies,both the talent gap and disparities may continue to grow.Coordinated efforts would help workers transition to in-demand,high-skilled jobs,
53、creating an opportunity to address talent demands and build a more inclusive economy.Disruptive trends threatening to increase talent shortages Over the next decade,New Jerseys labor gap could grow.At a minimum,we expect the gap will remain at around 250,000 unfilled positions;at worst,it could be c
54、lose to 400,000 by 2030 and contribute to widening economic disparities in the state(ExhibitE4).Occupations that currently require postsecondary education or highersuch as healthcare practitioners,management,computer and mathematical,and technical,business,and financial operationswill experience the
55、 highest growth through 2030.All of them already show talent shortages.Further,the pandemic accelerated trends that are likely to continue affecting the labor market.Shifted employee expectations could add to turnover,which is already at historic high levels with more than 100,000 employees voluntar
56、ily leaving their jobs every month in the state.The situation is not likely to change,given that 40percent of workers surveyed in our 2022 Great Attrition,Great Attraction Survey have indicated they are at least somewhat likely to quit their current job in the next three to six months.Our analysis s
57、hows that higher attrition expands the talent gap,at least temporarily,and increases the need to retrain new employees.Moreover,the role of the workplace is changing.The 2022 McKinsey American Opportunity Survey found that approximately 60 percent of New Jersey workers would work remotely three or m
58、ore days a week when given the opportunity.13 Our analysis shows that up to 1.4million jobs in New Jersey could be performed remotely,which represents 31 percent of total employment in the state.With no active efforts for retention,those workers could shift to employers in other states.All of these
59、trends represent a threat but also offer stakeholders an opportunity to reimagine how to attract,retain,and develop a high-quality workforce that can meet the demands of a growing economy.Cultivating the workforce of tomorrow New Jersey has the opportunity to alleviate the labor gap and create a dyn
60、amic,highly qualified workforce to support economic growth.Our analysis suggests that addressing the talent shortage could increase annual growth by 0.6to 0.8 percentage points from 2022 to 2030,translating to an incremental$38 billion to$50billion in GDP in 2030 when compared to a baseline scenario
61、.It represents a total potential increase of$160 billion to$175 billion in GDP from 2022 to 2030.5The Garden State in bloom:Cultivating New Jerseys workforce of tomorrowOur research and analysis have identified five bold bets that could help New Jersey close its talent gap and create a fast-growing,
62、inclusive economy:1.Expand capacity and enrollment in healthcare,IT,and business programs at postsecondary education institutions.2.Extend support services and incentives for students and hidden workers to join the labor force in New Jersey.3.Redefine employer hiring and recruiting processes to remo
63、ve barriers for employment and actively tap into often overlooked pools of talent.Exhibit E31Represents Black and Hispanic population as percentage of total employment in each given occupation group.2Although total employment in food services is expected to grow between 2021 and 2030(mainly driven b
64、y the recovery of jobs lost during the pandemic),our automation model estimates that 84,000104,000 employees in the category will be displaced due to digital and automation technologies.Source:McKinsey Global Institute Automation Model 2022;New Jersey Department of Labor and Workforce Development Po
65、pulation and Labor Force Projections;US Bureau of Labor StatisticsAutomation and digital technologies could displace more than one million New Jersey workers by 2030.Occupation groupOfce supportFood services2Production workCustomer service and salesMechanical installation and repairBuildersAgricultu
66、reTransportation servicesCommunity servicesBusiness and legal professionalsHealth aides,technicians,and wellnessManagersHealth professionalsSTEM professionalsProperty maintenanceCreatives and arts managementEducator and workforce trainingState totals2021employment,thousands60426929338718815219171216
67、478301246175220119513484,239Automation adoption,%displacement in 2030(vs 2021 total employment)Expecteddisplacement,2030,thousandsRace and ethnicity in occupation group,1 2021,%18724684104901018813150523953841404273924353354022283334155263021258701,058Share of Black and Hispanic population in NJ,353
68、14131393135233426282524222418191519141814161216151210793644523736424552441955182117621824BlackHispanicMidpoint scenarioUpper-bound scenario6The Garden State in bloom:Cultivating New Jerseys workforce of tomorrow4.Take the lead in creating the work environment of the future to improve attraction and
69、retention among New Jerseys companies.5.Strengthen the value proposition of living and working in midsize cities in New Jersey,developing ecosystems that transform urban areas into regional talent magnets.New Jerseys stakeholders can act now to address the underlying factors contributing to the labo
70、r gap,address inequality in employment opportunities,and improve talent retention in the state.To become a reality,this vision would need the engagement and coordinated action of New Jersey government,nonprofits,academia,and business.Its time to get to work.Exhibit E4Projected talent gap in New Jers
71、ey under various economic conditions,thousands of unflled positions11Sourced from data on unflled positions from US Bureau of Labor Statistics Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for consistency.2Represents continuation of 201019 average annual growth in talent gap of 7%;uses Q1 2019 as reference
72、 point for projections to avoid temporary efect of the pandemic.3Moodys economic scenario:high infation followed by a recession in the next economic cycle.4Moodys economic scenario:middle 50%of macroeconomic performance(ie,50%probability of better performance,moderate predictions).Source:Moodys Anal
73、ytics;Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey,US Bureau of Labor StatisticsTalent shortages are likely to remain regardless of macroeconomic scenario.McKinsey&Company150200250300350400202120252030Worst-case scenario2Next-cycle recession3Baseline47The Garden State in bloom:Cultivating New Jerseys work
74、force of tomorrowOver the past several years,all US states had to respond to the sudden,dramatic shocks caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.During one of the most challenging downturns of our generation,New Jerseys economy weathered the impact of the pandemic and bounced back faster than it had in previ
75、ous crises.Getting a true sense of New Jerseys economic trajectory and its underlying strengths requires an examination of the years preceding the pandemic.Through this lens,the states economy demonstrated resilience and growth.After the low point of the Great Recession in 2008,New Jersey spent the
76、better part of eight years working its way back to precrisis levels.In 2016,the states GDP returned to its previous high of$535 billion,yet its growth rate still trailed the US average.14 In the ensuing several years,the state experienced a resurgence.From 2015 to 2019,New Jerseys GDP grew 2.4 times
77、 faster than during the 201015 period.During this time,employment also increased at 1.4 times the rate of the preceding five years.This growth was led by a few industriesadministrative and business services;finance and insurance;healthcare and social assistance;professional,scientific,and technical
78、services;and transportation and warehousingwhich together provided a foundation for the states economy.(For details about the data underpinning this report,see sidebar“About the research.”)Chapter 1:Growth and resilience in the Garden State8The Garden State in bloom:Cultivating New Jerseys workforce
79、 of tomorrow9The Garden State in bloom:Cultivating New Jerseys workforce of tomorrowThe pandemic disrupted this steady growth.During the first year of the crisis,New Jerseys economy and labor market both declined:GDP contracted by 4.6 percent,more than one percentage point worse than the contraction
80、 in the United States as a whole.15 Among sectors,transportation and warehousing,accommodation and food services,and healthcare and social assistance saw the largest decreases.In addition,New Jerseys labor market lost 717,000 jobs,with employment dropping from 4.2 million in February 2020 to 3.5 mil
81、lion in April 2020.16 The economic fallout from the pandemic was not equally distributed among New Jerseys workforce.In 2020,Black and Hispanic workers were 77 and 60 percent more likely to be unemployed,respectively,than White workers.17Despite this drop,New Jerseys GDP bounced back to prepandemic
82、levels in the third quarter of 2021,and the total level of employment rebounded in the third quarter of 2022.Federal and state governments undertook policies aimed at reducing the impact of the pandemic.For example,in January 2021,New Jersey introduced the Economic Recovery Act of 2020.This seven-ye
83、ar,$14billion package of tax incentives,financing,and grant programs directly addressed the economic challenges of the COVID-19 pandemic(Exhibit 1).About the researchThroughout this report,we draw heavily from several data sources:The US Bureau of Economic Analysis for historical data on GDP and emp
84、loyment by industry The US Bureau of Labor Statistics(BLS)for historical labor force data on employment,unemployment,job openings,hires,and separations The US Census Bureaus American Community Survey 2020 for demographic data and migration patterns,including cuts by race,education,income,and poverty
85、 levels The US Census Bureaus Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics Survey for data on commuting patterns and job flows The Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System(IPEDS),a set of surveys conducted by the US Department of Educations National Center for Education Statistics,for data and tre
86、nds on postsecondary education,including numbers of students enrolled,staff employed,dollars expended,and degrees earned Moodys Analytics for projections on GDP by industry,forecasted 2020 and 2021 migration estimates,and high-level forecasts of job openings Lightcast for data on employment by occup
87、ational category and by industry(historical and projections),job postings,and educational attainment of labor force McKinsey Global Institute for projections on job displacements due to automation,by occupational group and racial group McKinseys Great Attrition,Great Attraction 2.0 Survey,for data o
88、n drivers of attraction and attrition,explaining what drives people to stay,leave,or return to work,with data collected from February 15 to April 2,2022(for US respondents,n=6,294)10The Garden State in bloom:Cultivating New Jerseys workforce of tomorrowThis measure encompasses other programs to supp
89、ort economic recovery and growth(such as the Main Street Recovery Finance Program,New Jersey Ignite,and New Jersey Innovation Evergreen Fund)by providing assistance to small businesses,investing in research and innovation,and directing funding to promising start-ups.Over the past two years,the New J
90、ersey Economic Development Authority(NJEDA)awarded 94,000 grants,loans,and other resources to businesses while providing$710 million in direct support.NJEDA also approved 559 applications for its Angel Investor Tax Credit Program,a 400 percent increase over 2020.18New Jerseys economy returned to its
91、 prepandemic GDP of$562 billion just 18 months after the onset of the pandemic.19 The states employment growth rate of 4.3 percent in 2021 outpaced the national average of 3.1 percent,20 and its unemployment rate also returned to prepandemic levels,with 3.3 percent as of September 2022.21 In additio
92、n,consumer spending in September 2022 was up by 22.3 percent over January 2020,an increase that significantly outpaced the countrys 14.4 percent.22Exhibit 1New Jersey seasonally adjusted nonfarm employees,millions11Data as of Q3 2022.Source:US Bureau of Economic Analysis(BEA);US Bureau of Labor Stat
93、istics(BLS)Total employment in New Jersey has recovered to reach prepandemic highs.McKinsey&Company3.63.84.04.22005201020152020Per annum change,%2.5+1.0+4.311The Garden State in bloom:Cultivating New Jerseys workforce of tomorrowFoundational strengths fuel postpandemic recoveryNew Jerseys economic g
94、rowth in the second half of the last decade and its recovery from the economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic were fueled by several foundational attributes:exposure to high-growth sectors,a well-educated talent pool,strong levels of innovation,and an advantageous geographic location.An economy an
95、chored in a set of high-growth industries Over the past decade,a few strategic industries have made the largest contributions to the states employment growth:administrative,management,and business services;finance and insurance;healthcare and social assistance;professional,scientific,and technical s
96、ervices;and transportation and warehousing(Exhibit 2).As of 2022,these industries employ more than 1.6 million people in New Jersey,accounting for 40 percent of total Exhibit 2New Jerseys share of GDP and employment by industry1Employment by industry from Lightcast.Industries with negative employmen
97、t growth(annual growth 202230)not depicted:retail trade(0.8%),utilities(0.4%),wholesale trade(0.3%),local government(0.1%),construction(0.1%),and manufacturing(0.1%).Accessed Oct 10,2022.2GDP from Moodys.Growth in accommodation and food services is expected to be driven by continued recovery toward
98、pre-COVID-19 levels.Accessed Oct 10,2022.Source:Lightcast 2022;Moodys AnalyticsNew Jerseys economy is led by industries that are expected to grow rapidly in the future.McKinsey&Company2021employment share,1%2021 GDP share,2%50510150481216A.Healthcare and social assistanceB.Professional,scientifc,and
99、 technical servicesC.Administrative,management,and business servicesD.Accommodation and food servicesE.Transportation and warehousingF.Finance and insuranceG.Other servicesH.Educational servicesI.Arts,entertainment,and recreationJ.Agriculture,forestry,fshing,and huntingK.Mining,quarrying,and oil and
100、 gas extractionL.Real estate,rental,and leaseStrategic industries in New Jersey(high share of employment and fast growth)Size=net job growth 20223020,000ABCDEFGHIJKL12The Garden State in bloom:Cultivating New Jerseys workforce of tomorrownonfarm employment in the state(well above their 32 percent sh
101、are of nonfarm employees in the United States).23Subsectors of these industries include business and financial operations,business support services,financial analysis,healthcare practitioners and technical services,healthcare support,information and communication technologies,computer-related occupa
102、tions,and transportation and material moving.Altogether,these industries created 172,000 jobs from 2015 to 2022,a 10 percent increase in total jobs in those sectors(compared with 7 percent for the country in the same period).Their growth helped to offset the decline in employment in accommodation an
103、d food services and retail trade,which together lost 62,000 jobs in New Jersey in the same period primarily due to the effects of the pandemic.24The core strategic industries are not only overrepresented in New Jersey and grow faster than in the rest of the United States,but also expected to drive g
104、rowth in the next decade.Together with accommodation and food services(growth will be fueled by its continued recovery to prepandemic levels),the core strategic industries are expected to create 130,000 jobs in a baseline scenario with no additional interventions.With total employment for all indust
105、ries projected to grow by 140,000 in the same period,these core industries will lead the charge in job creation.New Jerseys exposure to these core industries is demonstrated by the relevance of the companies located in the state.New Jersey is home to companies from a broad range of industries,includ
106、ing 15 Fortune 500 companies.It also hosts sites for 14 of the top 20 largest pharmaceutical companies in the country25 and some of the most influential tech companies,such as Panasonic and Verizon.Since 2016,some of the countrys largest employers have moved to the state and made significant investm
107、ents in new facilities.For example,in October 2021 Quest Diagnostics opened a 250,000-square-foot flagship innovation lab in Clifton with 1,100 employees.26 In the past two years,Amazon has announced 14 new delivery stations in New Jersey,which represents almost 10 percent of all of its delivery sta
108、tions in the country.27Our analysis suggests New Jersey has the potential to increase its market share in two regional industriesfinance and insurance,and tourism and entertainment.New Jersey currently employs 270,000 workers in those industries,and it can build on robust activity and high expected
109、growth in neighboring states to accelerate growth in those areas.In addition,two subsectorsinformation and communication technologies and clean energyrepresent strategic areas in which New Jersey could become a future leader and build on fast growth and concentrations in Newark and Elizabeth(for inf
110、ormation and communication technologies)and Atlantic City,Camden,and southern New Jersey(for clean energy).For example,the state aims to increase its leadership in the clean-energy space,with NJEDA currently leading the construction of an approximately$400 million wind port in Salem County.28 Projec
111、ts in wind energy are expected to create 7,000 full-and part-time jobs in the state.29A state with a highly educated,diverse talent pool and top-tier educational and research institutionsNew Jersey benefits from a well-educated workforce:44 percent of adult residents had earned at least a bachelors
112、degree as of 2020,outpacing nearly all peer states in the region(including Connecticut,New York,and Pennsylvania)and far above the US average of 34 percent.30 In 2021,New Jerseys more than 70 higher-education institutions had more than 400,000 students and conferred more than 67,000 bachelors and ad
113、vanced degrees.31 The states talent engine is particularly effective in the science,technology,engineering,and math(STEM)disciplines:its share of STEM graduates,at 17 percent of all graduates,ranks fourth in the country.32 Approximately 19,000 international students are enrolled in New Jerseys colle
114、ges and universities.3313The Garden State in bloom:Cultivating New Jerseys workforce of tomorrowNew Jersey also has a diverse labor force.It is second in the nation for linguistic diversitynearly 31 percent of state residents over the age of five speak a language other than English at home,34 and 42
115、 percent of international-born residents have a bachelors degree or higher compared with the national average of 34 percent.35 The state has become a destination of choice for highly skilled international-born residents,with India and China as the main countries of origin.This diverse workforce can
116、be a boon to New Jersey companies that operate in international markets.A magnet for investment and research Spurring innovation across industries requires a number of elements to be in place,from infrastructure and talent to investment capital.New Jersey already has a robust network of innovation c
117、enters in the private sector,led by top global companies and promising start-ups.Higher-education institutions are a vital contributor to research and innovation,with many inventions in research laboratories going on to become industry-shaping businesses.For example,Princeton University and Rutgers
118、University are among the top 25 research institutions in the country,36 providing hubs and incubators to translate academic breakthroughs into businesses.Collectively,this concentration of activity has helped New Jersey attract a high level of venture capital.The state ranks ninth among states for t
119、otal venture capital investments,bringing in more than$9 billion from 2019 to 2021($5.5 billion in 2021 alone),a sevenfold increase on an annual basis during that period.37 And the state government has taken coordinated action through a number of programs to support investment in new industries.For
120、example,it created the$600 million Innovation Evergreen Fund,an initiative led by the NJEDA that partners with private venture capital funds to invest in local start-ups.38An economy with an enviable geographic position at the crossroads of commerce New Jersey is well placed to benefit from the incr
121、easing economic activity of its neighbors and from international trade.Approximately$2.8 trillion in GDP is generated within 150 miles of the state,39 which has easy access to all major cities on the Eastern Seaboard.New Jerseys air-and seaports make the state a hub for global passenger travel and s
122、hipping.At Newark Liberty International Airport,The states talent engine is particularly effective in the science,technology,engineering,and math(STEM)disciplines:its share of STEM graduates,at 17 percent of all graduates,ranks fourth in the country.14The Garden State in bloom:Cultivating New Jersey
123、s workforce of tomorrowannual passenger traffic grew from 35 million in 2013 to 46.3 million in 2019.40 Following the sharp decline in air traffic worldwide due to the COVID-19 pandemic,the airport regained its footing to serve more than 29.1 million passengers in 2021.41In addition,the Port of New
124、York and New Jersey is the gateway to one of the most concentrated consumer markets in North America.It handles more than 800,000 containers per month,and in the month of August 2022 it processed more containers than any other port in the country,outpacing the ports of both Los Angeles and Long Beac
125、h.42 Thanks to this infrastructure and access to trade,in 2021 New Jersey ranked fourth for total annual imports(at$157 billion)and tenth for total annual exports($49.5 billion)in the United States.43Looking aheadIn many respects,New Jerseys economy appears to be back on track.The state recovered mo
126、re quickly from the COVID-19 pandemic than from the financial crisis of 200809,primarily driven by overexposure to a set of high-growth sectors.Its GDP is forecast to reach$695 billion by 2030,with an estimated annual growth of 2.2 percent over the decade.44Now is not the time for complacency,howeve
127、r.Moodys forecasts that New Jersey will experience GDP growth in line with its peer states but slower than the country as a wholeexpected growth in New Jersey is two percentage points lower than the projected annual GDP growth in the United States through 2030.As discussed in the next chapter,the sp
128、eed at which New Jersey could develop the talent required by businesses will be a critical driver to tap into potential additional growth.High inflation and a potential recession complicate the picture,threatening economic growth.Although New Jerseys labor market has regained its prepandemic level w
129、ith 3.3 percent unemployment in September 2022,Moodys forecasts the states unemployment rate could reach 6.0 percent in 2024 under a recession scenario,and up to 8.0 percent under a scenario in which inflation continues to create pressure on businesses to scale back operations.In any scenario,we exp
130、ect New Jerseys long-term recovery beyond 2024 to be slowed down by limited availability of skilled workers to meet business demands.While New Jersey did experience a relative speedy recovery from the pandemic,its existing strengths might not be enough to ensure that the states economy continues its
131、 growth trajectory and benefits all New Jerseyans.New Jersey could seize the opportunity to forge a strong and inclusive economy.A coordinated economic growth strategy will be needed to maintain growth in the months and years ahead.15The Garden State in bloom:Cultivating New Jerseys workforce of tom
132、orrowNew Jersey has a critical opportunity to assess its growth outlook,unique social fabric,and economic resilience.Our analysis seeks to answer two key questions:How can the states stakeholders accelerate inclusive economic growth for New Jersey in the next decade?How can we make use of these insi
133、ghts to chart a course for the future?As discussed in the previous section,New Jersey recovered quickly from the pandemic.However,its projected growth for the rest of the decade is slower than for the rest of the United States.The state has an opportunity to accelerate growth,but it will need to tak
134、e coordinated action to reach that goal.Two barriers to the continued growth of New Jerseys economy are a widening talent shortage and the persistent disparities in economic prosperity across social groups.The lack of a sufficient pool of qualified workers could slow the economys momentum and stifle
135、 business investment.At the same time,Black and Hispanic residents have not reached the same levels of prosperity and access to quality jobs as the rest of the states population.The result could affect the fabric of the state through increased need for social assistance and a missed opportunity for
136、continued innovation and growth in the upcoming years.Chapter 2:Challenges to sustained,inclusive growth16The Garden State in bloom:Cultivating New Jerseys workforce of tomorrow17The Garden State in bloom:Cultivating New Jerseys workforce of tomorrowAs demonstrated later in this chapter,the demand f
137、or workers has grown faster than the supply over the past decade in New Jersey.This accelerated growth is a reflection of the potential for economic growth in the state:employers are interested in continuing to expand.Yet employers are not finding the talent they needa situation that could slow down
138、 momentum.Closing this mismatch in the market requires coordinated action from multiple stakeholders,which would ultimately propel economic growth in the state.A comprehensive,inclusive talent strategy can be an engine for economic growth,help businesses find the talent they need,create opportunitie
139、s for the underserved,and unlock the full potential of New Jerseys economy for all of its residents.A persistent and growing talent gapNew Jersey has faced a talent gapa mismatch between the demand for skilled workers and the supplysince before 2010,but the gap has increased in recent years(Exhibit
140、3).In any given month in 2010,the state had an average of around 98,000 unfilled positionsthat is,available positions for which no qualified candidates were found and hired.The figure grew approximately 7 percent a year until 2019.Over the ensuing two years,the gap reached approximately 272,000 in 2
141、021.45The pandemic created unprecedented friction in the market,from people leaving the labor force to workers shifting jobs and occupations due to disruptions in their lives.In addition,the demand Exhibit 3Labor force and unflled positions in New Jersey,thousands,annual monthly average1Defned as se
142、asonally adjusted unflled positions in New Jersey,as published by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey.2Latest confrmed data available through June 2022 for unflled positions and July 2022 for labor force.Source:Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey,US Bureau of
143、Labor Statistics;Local Area Unemployment Statistics,US Bureau of Labor Statistics Today,New Jersey faces a growing talent gap that could slow economic growth.McKinsey&Company201020152020 2022YTD2201020152020 2022YTD2Unflled positions1Total labor force501001502002503004,0005,0004,2004,4004,6004,800Th
144、e labor force grew only 0.2%annually from 2010 to 2022.The talent gap grew 7%annually from 2010 to 2019,and during the latter half of the decade saw an acceleration.18The Garden State in bloom:Cultivating New Jerseys workforce of tomorrowfor certain occupations increased:the pandemic increased the n
145、eed for healthcare workers,and the acceleration in the use of digital technologies and remote work has created more demand for computer-and technology-related jobs.While many businesses weathered the pandemic,the changing labor market contributed to a widening gap in many occupations.As shown in Exh
146、ibit 3,the labor shortage has existed at elevated numbers for years.The pandemic simply increased the size of the problem in the state.Even after the economy stabilizes,the underlying gap is likely to remain.As of midyear 2022,the labor shortfall stood at 284,000.Without any additional intervention,
147、we estimate the labor shortfall would remain around 250,000 unfilled jobs by 2030 even in the most optimistic scenario.Occupational groups with the largest talent gaps are healthcare practitioners and technical occupations(27,300),sales and sales-related occupations(25,900),management(25,100),transp
148、ortation(22,200),office and administrative support(22,000),and computer and mathematical jobs(19,200)(Exhibit 4).46 Among individual occupations,the largest talent gaps are for registered nurses(10,100),sales representatives(7,000),software developers and QA testers(6,300),and sales representatives
149、for wholesale and manufacturing(6,000).47Some of the occupations with existing talent gaps are expected to be among the fastest growing in the future(Exhibit 5).For example,demand for healthcare practitioners,with 27,300 unfilled positions,is projected to grow by 18,500 additional positions in the n
150、ext eight years.Similarly,management occupations and computer-related occupations will add 16,600 and 14,000 positions,respectively,through 2030.The persistent talent gap could slow growth because the states production of qualified talent is not keeping pace with increased business development and o
151、b demand.Factors that contribute to the talent shortageWe analyzed the labor gap from the perspective of both workers and employers.The shortage of talent is partially explained by availability of workers,which is influenced by the shrinking labor force participation rate,the difficulty of training
152、As of midyear 2022,the labor shortfall stood at 284,000.Without any additional intervention,we estimate the labor shortfall would remain around 250,000 unfilled jobs by 2030 even in the most optimistic scenario.19The Garden State in bloom:Cultivating New Jerseys workforce of tomorrowand upskilling a
153、vailable workers,and the abundant opportunities in neighboring states that lead New Jersey residents to leave.The shortage,however,could also be explained by employer practices that might be screening out good candidates.The workers perspective:Labor force participation,mobility,and training The ove
154、rall supply of talent is influenced by a number of factors.Understanding their impact will be critical to crafting effective solutions.Exhibit 4Top 15 occupations with largest talent shortage that typically require associates degree or above11Active job postings from Lightcast,representing jobs empl
155、oyers are actively looking to fll.Associates degree or above includes associates,bachelors,masters,doctoral,and professional degrees.2Graduates from educational programs(postsecondary nondegree,associates,bachelors,and above)who are likely to take an occupation;we developed a 1:1 completion occupati
156、on-matching analysis to prevent double counting completions.3Supply gap,defned as the ratio between average monthly unflled job postings and total annual graduates,is a proxy for talent gap.4Includes medical dosimetrists,medical records specialists,and health technologists and technicians.Source:Lig
157、htcast 2022Occupations with the largest talent shortages are in healthcare,information technology,and management.McKinsey&CompanyAverage monthly unflled job postings(talent shortage),thousands,2021Total annual graduates,2 thousands,2021Supply gap3ratio,low(2.0)Registered nursesSoftware developers an
158、d testersHealth technologists and technicians4Medical and health-services managersComputer relatedGeneral and operations managersNursing assistantsMarketing managersLicensed practical and licensed vocational nursesMedical assistants Sales managersHuman resources specialistsAutomotive-service technic
159、ians and mechanicsManagement analystsProject management specialists=0.51.00.70.50.80.80.80.62.12.87.03.22.50.91.73.34.51.02.42.42.12.70.610.14.86.33.23.23.12.82.72.22.21.91.91.81.71.71.61.23.01.61.93.02.220The Garden State in bloom:Cultivating New Jerseys workforce of tomorrowDeclining labor force p
160、articipation rates and higher attrition.The labor force participation rate for New Jerseys working-age population(those aged 16 and above)has declined steadily over the past ten years,from 66 percent in 2012 to 63percent in 2022,the lowest in 44 years.48 This trend is in line with the country as a w
161、holeUS labor force participation dropped from 64 to 62percent in the same period.49Exhibit 51Pre-COVID-19 levels are defned as 2019 annual employment.Growth marked under this category represents net job creation that would help the economy recover jobs lost in this category during the 201921 period.
162、2Growth marked under this category refers to net job creation that would help the economy surpass total employment in this category in 2019.Source:Lightcast 2022Employment is still recovering in some occupations,but healthcare and professional services are expected to fuel employment growth.McKinsey
163、&CompanyOccupational categoryHealthcare practitioners and techniciansBusiness and fnancial operationsManagementHealthcare supportComputer and mathematicalTransportation and material movingCommunity and social serviceLife,physical,and social scienceLegalArchitecture and engineeringMilitaryArts,design
164、,entertainment,sports,and mediaFarming,fshing,and forestryFood preparation and servingPersonal care and serviceEducational instruction and libraryInstallation,maintenance,and repairTotal140Net job change,202230,thousandsNet job growth,202230,%Share of jobs,2022,%of total7.55.56.312.19.14.07.23.03.42
165、.73.69.14.410.310.93.32.53.5Recovery at or below pre-COVID-19 levelsTotal net new jobs above pre-COVID 19 levels2Construction and extractionBuilding and ground cleaning and maintenanceProtective serviceProductionSales and relatedOfce support15.96.66.44.43.710.81.91.10.81.30.31.20.26.22.47.03.41.51.3
166、0.70.21.93.33.03.22.64.09.214.218.515.116.622.414.018.15.71.41.21.50.54.40.426.311.09.53.61.81.70.70.47.019.121The Garden State in bloom:Cultivating New Jerseys workforce of tomorrowOne of the primary trends contributing to New Jerseys declining labor participation is rising attrition among workers.
167、The state has seen an upward trajectory in the number of workers who voluntarily quit their jobs each month since 2011.Resignations per month reached an average of more than 100,000 in 2022,almost 60 percent higher than in 2017(Exhibit 6).50Higher attrition might contribute to the growing talent gap
168、.A recent McKinsey survey shows that almost 22 percent of US employees who quit their job from April 2020 to April 2022 had not returned to the workforce by July 2022.51 Further,45 percent of those who quit in this period returned to work but in a different industry,resulting in longer job searches.
169、In both cases,attrition has an indirect impact on increasing,at least temporarily,the talent gap.Outmigration:New Jersey as net exporter of talent.The impact of migration on a states overall population can also contribute to a reduction in the total labor force in the market.New Jersey is a net expo
170、rter of talent:from 2011 to 2021,an average of 20,000 residents(net of inflows)migrated to other states or countries each year(Exhibit 7).In part this is because the state has struggled to retain homegrown workers:residents with a bachelors degree or higher account for about half of outmigration eac
171、h year.52 On a positive note,New Jersey has historically been successful in attracting international workers who are well educated,despite a decline in 2018.As mentioned before,42 percent of international-born residents have a bachelors degree or higher compared with the national average of 34 perce
172、nt,with India and China as the main countries of origin.53Exhibit 6Workers voluntarily leaving their jobs,thousands per month1 1Monthly average in any given year.2Data available as of June 2022.Source:Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey,US Bureau of Labor StatisticsThe Great Resignation in New Je
173、rsey has shown a sustained upward trajectory,mirroring the national trend.McKinsey&Company204060801001,0002,0003,0004,0005,0007.3%Annual growth,2009227.2%Annual growth,200922201020152020 2022YTD2201020152020 2022YTD2New JerseyUnited States22The Garden State in bloom:Cultivating New Jerseys workforce
174、 of tomorrowIn addition,New Jersey loses a large share of its college graduates to other states.In 2020,38percent of college graduates entered the labor market in New Jersey after graduation,which trailed New York(52 percent)and Pennsylvania(45percent).54 Retaining more of this talent pool could be
175、a vital element of closing the skills gap:New Jersey produces around 17,000 STEM graduates each year,many of whom have the skills to fill occupations currently facing talent shortfalls.55Commuting patterns with neighboring states.New Jersey is located in a vibrant region in the Northeast,giving resi
176、dents access to a broad range of employment opportunities in neighboring states,particularly New York and Pennsylvania.In 2019,637,000 workers lived in New Jersey but worked in another state,and 343,000 workers lived in other states but worked in New Jersey.56 That represented a net outflow of 294,0
177、00 workers.The net outflow has grown over the past decade.In 2010,it stood at 195,000 workers,representing annual growth of 4.6 percent through the end of the decade.Most of the commuters who live in New Jersey work in New York,with a net outflow of 284,000 workers in 2019.Pennsylvania is in a dista
178、nt second place with 2,000 New Jersey residents crossing the border to work there(net of inflows).Other states capture the rest.57Exhibit 7Migration in and out of New Jersey,1 thousands1Data for 201119 are from US Census Bureaus Population Estimates;data for 202021 are from Moodys Analytics quarterl
179、y forecasts,aggregated for annual rates.2Net domestic migration:number of people moving to NJ from other US states minus number of people leaving NJ for other states.3Net international migration:number of people moving to NJ from other countries,minus number of people moving from NJ to other countri
180、es.4Net migration=net domestic migration+net international migration;net births(not shown),however,are positive,which is driving population growth in the state.Source:Moodys Analytics;US Census BureauNew Jersey has consistently seen negative net migration,but international arrivals have been increas
181、ing since 2019.McKinsey&CompanyNet migration4 6.518.2 18.8 23.4 27.8 28.7 12.2 23.5 24.2 17.211.141.046.147.653.569.167.657.250.648.144.746.534.527.928.830.141.338.945.027.123.927.535.42011201220132014201520162017201820192020202123The Garden State in bloom:Cultivating New Jerseys workforce of tomorr
182、owThe northern region of the state,which includes the highly populated counties of Hudson,Union,Essex,Bergen,Passaic,Morris,Warren,and Sussex,is where most commuting activity happens.These counties have a net outflow of 199,000 New Jersey residents who work in New York.58Those commuting patterns dem
183、onstrate that New Jersey has succeeded in positioning itself as a desirable place to live in the region.New Jersey could consider initiatives to encourage people to not only live but also work in the state.We explore this opportunity in more detail in the third chapter.The state could also continue
184、to entice commuting workers to live in New Jersey and facilitate the mobility of its own workers.Both goals can be achieved by strengthening the infrastructure that connects the state with the rest of the region.Expansion and service improvement in the rail system would reinforce the states position
185、 as a good place to live and would facilitate mobility within and outside the state.The state is already moving in that direction with projects such as the Gateway Program,which will connect Newark and New York City.Shortfall of training and upskilling opportunities.An added challenge is that more t
186、han half of the current talent gap is for positions that typically require some postsecondary training.59 More than one-third of these jobs require at least a bachelors degreefor example,some jobs in healthcare and management,business,and financial operations.This qualification will become even more
187、 important in the coming years:occupations that require some postsecondary training account for nearly two-thirds of forecast job growth in New Jersey.60 Without a sufficient increase in graduates in healthcare,IT,and business programs,companies may face added difficulty in finding qualified talent.
188、Top occupation categories with postsecondary education requirements are healthcare practitioners and technicians(96 percent of unfilled job postings require postsecondary education or above),management(87 percent),and computer and mathematical(more than 99percent)(Exhibit 8).Currently,New Jerseys ed
189、ucation system does not produce enough candidates across all levels(high school,associates degree,bachelors degree,and higher)to meet demand in certain high-demand occupations(measured as total new available openings).Among the top 15 occupations with unfilled positions requiring a bachelors degrees
190、,11 have at least twice as many unfilled job postings as there are graduates each year,as shown previously in Exhibit 4.The employer perspective:Practices that could potentially screen out qualified candidatesThree-quarters of US companies use automated recruiting systems,with standard filters such
191、as degree requirements or years of experience,to sift through applications.61 More than 85 percent of employers believe their restrictive hiring practices filter out qualified candidates.62 Given New Jerseys shortage of candidates with a postsecondary education,employers may want to reconsider wheth
192、er a postsecondary education is required for certain occupations.In addition,the labor force has a significant share of“hidden workers”that is,skilled individuals who are unemployed or underemployed as well as those who gave up looking for work but want to reenter the labor market.The category encom
193、passes a wide range of workers,including veterans,the formerly incarcerated,people with health issues,older workers with experience and skills,immigrants,and caregivers.63 This last group consists primarily of women who dropped out of full-and part-time work to provide childcare,eldercare,or both.Ou
194、r analysis suggests New Jersey could have 330,000 to 740,000 hidden workers.64 In a survey that asked hidden workers about obstacles to gainful employment,36 percent cited insufficient job experience,30 percent pointed to employment gaps on their resume,and 29 percent highlighted academic attainment
195、(for example,degree 24The Garden State in bloom:Cultivating New Jerseys workforce of tomorrowrequirements).65 Since these workers dont have resumes that conform to the profile of a candidate that companies typically look for,employers often dont call them for a job interview.The accumulated frustrat
196、ion of a fruitless job search can lead them to give up altogether.Companies in New Jersey might be able to expand their candidate pools by adopting more flexible Exhibit 8Top 10 occupation groups by unflled positions11Unflled positions are proxied by average active monthly job postings from Lightcas
197、t.An average of 272,000 monthly active job postings were identifed in 2021.About 96%of the jobs can be assigned with education requirement.2Postsecondary and above includes postsecondary nondegree awards,some college(but no degree),and associates,bachelors,masters,doctoral,and professional degrees.3
198、Analysis excludes about 5%of job postings that could not be classifed by typical education requirements.4Includes masters,doctoral,and professional degrees.5Includes the typical education requirement of some college,no degree.Source:Lightcast 2022;US Bureau of Labor StatisticsMore than half of the t
199、alent gap is for positions that require some postsecondary training,and one-third require a bachelors degree.McKinsey&CompanyUnflled positions,thousands,2021Share typically requiring postsecondary or above,2%Healthcare practitioners and techniciansSales and relatedManagementTransportation and materi
200、al movingOfce and administrative supportComputer and mathematicalBusiness and fnancial operationsFood preparation and servingHealthcare supportInstallation,maintenance,and repairUnflled positions by education typically required,3%share of total,2021 5323113216Advanced4BachelorsAssociatesPostsecondar
201、ynondegree5High schoolNo formaleducation27.325.925.122.222.019.213.212.911.98.195.987.023.07.7100.096.10.056.833.67.825The Garden State in bloom:Cultivating New Jerseys workforce of tomorrowrequirements for occupations with high levels of unfilled positions.This approach doesnt involve lowering stan
202、dards or expectations for workers;rather,it more accurately reflects the skills needed to perform well in a job by looking beyond traditional measures such as four-year degrees.Companies that make a conscious effort to expand the search beyond traditional talent pools have captured significant benef
203、its:they are 36 percent less likely to face talent and skill shortages compared with other companies.66Growing disparities in economic opportunities Together,the talent gap and persistent economic disparity represent a threat to sustained economic growth in New Jersey.The talent gap is a significant
204、 bottleneckcompanies wont be able to continue to grow without a sufficient labor pool.And as disparities increase,so do the social challengesfor example,increased costs of social services programs to the state.Economic opportunity and outcomes arent equally distributed across the states population.O
205、ur analysis of economic outcomes in New Jersey reveals existing inequality along racial and ethnic groups and gender lines.Black and Hispanic New Jersey residents of all age groups encounter persistent barriers to educational and professional opportunities.Black and Hispanic residents start at a dis
206、advantage.Compared with White residents,they experience infant mortality rates that are 3.0 and 1.5 times higher,respectively,and child poverty rates that are around twice as high.67 In the education system,they face higher dropout rates(six times higher for Black students,two times higher for Hispa
207、nic students),which may contribute to their lower high school completion rate.68 Further,Black and Hispanic residents experience elevated rates of incarceration and homelessness.69Employment outcomes and projections are also worse for Black and Hispanic residents.From 2005 to 2021,they experienced p
208、ersistently higher unemployment,with levels around 1.5 times higher than those of White residents.70 They also are overrepresented in positions with lower-middle and low wages(6 to 8percent higher than the workforce at large).71These challenges translate to a median income for Black and Hispanic hou
209、seholds that is approximately 40 percent lower than that of White households.72 In addition,the gap in average weekly wages between Black and Hispanic residents and their White peers grew from$136 in 2006 to$217 in 2021,a 60 percent increase.73From a demographic standpoint,Black and Hispanic residen
210、ts account for 47 percent of the population in northeastern New Jersey,the highest percentage in the state.This region also has the highest unemployment rate(7.1 percent)and the highest poverty rate(12.1 percent).74 Urban centers By 2030,job displacement from automation could reach more than one mil
211、lion jobsequal to almost one-quarter of the states labor force.26The Garden State in bloom:Cultivating New Jerseys workforce of tomorrowacross geographic regions,such as Atlantic City,Camden,Newark,Passaic,Paterson,and Trenton,have a higher percentage of people of color,as well as lower household in
212、come,employment,educational attainment,and share of population with health insurance.75A comprehensive talent strategy could address both talent shortages and economic disparities in the state,ideally at the same time.Creating opportunities for education and employment for minority groups and facili
213、tating transitions from low-skill jobs to high-wage jobs would not only address the talent demand of employers but also reduce economic disparities in New Jersey.As we discuss in the next section,several trends are likely to increase the talent gap in the next decade while widening inequality.A comp
214、rehensive talent strategy that promotes collaboration among stakeholders and provides training and opportunity for everyone will be key to promote sustained economic growth in New Jersey.Disruptive trends threatening to increase talent shortages and widen economic disparitiesOver the next decade,New
215、 Jerseys labor gap could grow significantly.Our analysis modeled three economic scenarios ranging from worst case to optimistic(Exhibit 9).At a minimum,we expect the gap will remain at around 250,000 unfilled positions;at worst,it could be close to 400,000 Exhibit 9Projected talent gap in New Jersey
216、 under various economic conditions,thousands of unflled positions11Sourced from data on unflled positions from US Bureau of Labor Statistics Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for consistency.2Represents continuation of 201019 average annual growth in talent gap of 7%;uses Q1 2019 as reference p
217、oint for projections to avoid temporary efect of the pandemic.3Moodys economic scenario:high infation followed by a recession in the next economic cycle.4Moodys economic scenario:middle 50%of macroeconomic performance(ie,50%probability of better performance,moderate predictions).Source:Moodys Analyt
218、ics;Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey,US Bureau of Labor StatisticsTalent shortages are likely to remain regardless of macroeconomic scenario.McKinsey&Company150200250300350400202120252030Worst-case scenario2Next-cycle recession3Baseline427The Garden State in bloom:Cultivating New Jerseys workf
219、orce of tomorrowby 2030 and contribute to widening economic disparities in the state.76 In a recession scenario,the demand for jobs might decline for a couple of years due to lower economic activity,reducing the talent gap temporarily.Once the economy recovers,the underlying talent shortage would be
220、come an issue again before the end of the decade.Across the scenarios,occupations that currently require postsecondary education or highersuch as healthcare practitioners,management,computer and mathematical,and technical,business,and financial operationswill experience the highest growth in demand
221、through 2030.In addition to existing,long-standing challenges,New Jersey faces two trends that could either fuel economic growth or further widen the existing gap and the resulting economic disparities.The outcome will depend on the actions of stakeholders across the state.Automation displacement:Ch
222、allenges and opportunities on the horizon The pandemic accelerated the adoption of digital technologies,which increased demand for technology-related skills.The impending impact of automation and new technologies might add to the growing talent gap and exacerbate economic disparities.Tasks that are
223、highly susceptible to automation,such as data collection,processing,and repetitive physical work,account for 48 percent of total working hours in New Jersey today.77The states occupation groups with the highest share of jobs at risk of disruption from automation are office support services(up to 41
224、percent of total jobs in this category might be displaced by automation),food services(39 percent),production work(35 percent),and customer services and sales(34 percent).78 By 2030,job displacement from automation could reach more than one million jobsequal to almost one-quarter of the states labor
225、 force(Exhibit 10).Occupations in office support,food services,customer service and sales,and production together account for 50 to 60 percent of all job displacement.79This shift to more high-skill occupations is expected to disproportionately affect workers without a college degree.Racial minoriti
226、es are overrepresented in jobs that are more likely to be displaced by automation in the upcoming years.For example,52 percent of current workers in More than 100,000 workers in New Jersey leave their jobs every month,and 40 percent of workers have indicated they are at least somewhat likely to quit
227、 their current job in the next three to six months.28The Garden State in bloom:Cultivating New Jerseys workforce of tomorrowproduction and manufacturing in New Jersey are Black or Hispanic.Our analysis estimates between 90,000 and 101,000 jobs will be displaced in this category due to automation in
228、the next decade,which means that more than 50,000 Black and Hispanic workers in production and manufacturing will need to find another job.As the demand for higher-skill workers increases and automation continues to displace lower-skilled workers,both the talent gap and disparities may continue to g
229、row.To avoid exacerbating economic disparities,companies can undertake coordinated efforts to help those workers transition to high-skill jobs.Exhibit 101Represents Black and Hispanic population as percentage of total employment in each given occupation group.2Although total employment in food servi
230、ces is expected to grow between 2021 and 2030(mainly driven by the recovery of jobs lost during the pandemic),our automation model estimates that 84,000104,000 employees in the category will be displaced due to digital and automation technologies.Source:McKinsey Global Institute Automation Model 202
231、2;New Jersey Department of Labor and Workforce Development Population and Labor Force Projections;US Bureau of Labor StatisticsAutomation and digital technologies could displace more than one million New Jersey workers by 2030.McKinsey&CompanyOccupation groupOfce supportFood services2Production work
232、Customer service and salesMechanical installation and repairBuildersAgricultureTransportation servicesCommunity servicesBusiness and legal professionalsHealth aides,technicians,and wellnessManagersHealth professionalsSTEM professionalsProperty maintenanceCreatives and arts managementEducator and wor
233、kforce trainingState totals2021employment,thousands60426929338718815219171216478301246175220119513484,239Automation adoption,%displacement in 2030(vs 2021 total employment)Expecteddisplacement,2030,thousandsRace and ethnicity in occupation group,1 2021,%1872468410490101881315052395384140427392435335
234、4022283334155263021258701,058Share of Black and Hispanic population in NJ,35314131393135233426282524222418191519141814161216151210793644523736424552441955182117621824BlackHispanicMidpoint scenarioUpper-bound scenario29The Garden State in bloom:Cultivating New Jerseys workforce of tomorrowChanges in
235、the way we work:Renewed expectations about employers and the role of remote work The pandemic accelerated new ways of working and shifted employee expectations for flexibility and the role of the workplace.These developments could add to turnover,which would increase the average amount of time that
236、employers face a talent shortfall.As noted previously,attrition is reaching historically high numbers:more than 100,000 workers in New Jersey leave their jobs every month.The situation is not likely to change,given that 40 percent of workers have indicated they are at least somewhat likely to quit t
237、heir current job in the next three to six months.80 More important,people are willing to leave their job without another offer in hand,and many of those who quit are exiting their industry entirely(Exhibit 11).Employees now feel that the employer value proposition could extend beyond traditional mea
238、nsa good salary is not enough.The top three reasons US workers cited for leaving their current job without another position in hand are uncaring and uninspiring leaders(42 percent),unreliable and unsupportive people at work(31 percent),and Exhibit 11People are willing to leave their job without anot
239、her ofer in hand,%of respondentsNote:Figures may not sum to 100%,because of rounding.Graphs show data for subset of respondents in the US.Source:Great Attrition,Great Attraction Survey 2.0,McKinsey,2022(subset of respondents)Attrition may accelerate as employees are willing to quit without another j
240、ob lined up,and additional training could be needed.McKinsey&CompanyThose who fnd a new job are not returning to the industries they left,%of respondentsEmployees who quit jobs between Apr 2020 and Apr 2022 (n=891)Employees who are at least“somewhat likely”to quit in next 36 months(n=2,256)Had anoth
241、er oferDid not haveanother oferWould only leave with a job in handWould leavewithout a job in handEmployees who quit their jobs between Apr 2020 and Apr 2022(n=829)Took a new job in same industryDid not return to workforceMoved toa diferentindustryAdded new delivery requirements or increased the fne
242、s for noncompliance(n=19)39613565324522Did not return to same industry6730The Garden State in bloom:Cultivating New Jerseys workforce of tomorrowlack of career development and advancement(30percent).81Moreover,the role of the workplace is changing.A 2022 survey of New Jersey residents found that app
243、roximately 60 percent would work remotely three or more days a week when given the opportunity.82 Employees in the state who work in the office do so for different reasons,including productivity(cited by 77 percent who go to the office at least once a week)and connectivity(60 percent).83 More than 6
244、0percent of employees who work from home are doing so out of preference rather than necessity,up 25 percentage points from October 2020.84McKinsey Global Institute analysis shows that up to 1.4 million jobs in New Jersey could be performed remotely,which represents 31 percent of total employment in
245、the state.The occupations with higher potential for remote work are business professionals(76 percent of tasks can be done effectively remotely without significant productivity loss),managers(71 percent),STEM professionals(61 percent),and other support services(61 percent).Occupations in those four
246、categories account for 75percent of the total jobs that could be performed remotely.In response,more than 50 percent of executives are already adjusting or planning to reconfigure their office footprints.85 This shift is reflected in the fact that New Jerseys office vacancy rate hit 14 percent in 20
247、21,the highest level since 2015.86All of these trends represent a threat.However,they also offer stakeholders an opportunity to reimagine how to attract,retain,and develop a high-quality workforce that can meet the demands of a growing economy.McKinsey Global Institute analysis shows that up to 1.4
248、million jobs in New Jersey could be performed remotely,which represents 31 percent of total employment in the state.31The Garden State in bloom:Cultivating New Jerseys workforce of tomorrowNew Jersey has the opportunity to alleviate the labor gap and create a dynamic,highly qualified workforce to su
249、pport economic growth.Our analysis suggests that addressing the talent shortage could increase annual growth by 0.6to 0.8 percentage points from 2022 to 2030,translating to an incremental$38 billion to$50billion in GDP in 2030 when compared to a baseline scenario.It represents a total potential incr
250、ease of$160 billion to$175 billion in GDP from 2022 to 2030.This effort will require coordinated activity among stakeholders to pursue a few strategic objectives:broaden New Jerseys available talent pool,build skills for in-demand jobs in New Jersey,and reimagine the recruiting and retention strateg
251、ies of New Jerseys employers.Our research and analysis have identified five potential bold bets to help New Jersey close its talent gap and create a fast-growing,inclusive,and resilient economy.Five bold bets to build the workforce of tomorrow Each of the five bets encompasses a different concept,ta
252、rget audience,and set of stakeholders.New Jersey has already established a foundation and made initial progress on some of these bets.To illustrate how these could work,we have highlighted successful examples from across the United States.Chapter 3:Cultivating the workforce of tomorrowClosing the ta
253、lent gap could increase annual growth by 0.6 to 0.8 percentage points from 2022 to 2030.It represents a total potential increase of$160 billion to$175 billion in GDP from 2022 to 2030$175B32The Garden State in bloom:Cultivating New Jerseys workforce of tomorrow33The Garden State in bloom:Cultivating
254、 New Jerseys workforce of tomorrow1.Expand capacity and enrollment in healthcare,IT,and business programs at postsecondary education institutionsNew Jerseys labor market is experiencing two distinct trends:First,nearly half of unfulfilled positions in 2021 required postsecondary training or higher,w
255、ith the largest gaps in healthcare and IT occupations.Second,low-income populations are concentrated in jobs that are most susceptible to automation.High school and college students,working adults,and unemployed workers could benefit from training and upskilling to qualify for in-demand,high-paying
256、jobs.New Jersey could scale its skill-building programs and increase access for underserved communities to address the two trends mentioned above.The following actions could contribute to that goal:Expand the capacity of vocational,technical,and higher-education programs for in-demand occupations.Th
257、ere are several ways to achieve this goal,including the following examples.First,New Jersey could create targeted programs and credentials for healthcare support,software-related jobs,and business support services in collaboration with community colleges and universities.For example,the Greater Wash
258、ington Partnership coordinated efforts with regional universities to offer credentials recognized by local employers in cybersecurity,data analytics,machine learning,and tech-adjacent roles.They are offered by local universities and recognized by local employers.A similar program to offer targeted c
259、ourses and credentials,some of them online,could be developed in partnership with employers and universities.Second,New Jersey could facilitate the creation of new training programs in collaboration with employers and independent training providers.For example,Georgia Quick Start at the Technical Co
260、llege System of Georgia partners with employers to develop customized job-specific training programs based on company criteria.Programs include healthcare and bioscience,business operations,and aviation.In Chicago,the nonprofit P33 partnered with employers and training providers to create and scale
261、training programs that address talent needs across certain occupations,particularly in IT and software.In a similar effort,New Jersey could encourage employers to finance or scale training programs for in-demand occupations,especially healthcare and IT jobs.Remove barriers to enrollment for training
262、 and higher education for in-demand skills.To increase access to programs,stakeholders could enhance financing options(for example,scholarships,loans,and grants)and offer wraparound support services such as childcare services to remove barriers to labor force participation.Community outreach program
263、s could be extended to enroll students from low-income communities and underrepresented populations.New Jersey has already taken significant steps to improve access to training programs.For example,New Jersey Pay It Forward provides interest-and fee-free loans to support low-income career seekers in
264、 approved training programs.It also offers stipends and free wraparound support services,including access to an emergency financial aid fund and mental-health counseling.This program maintains a$12.5 million revolving fund that creates a sustainable cycle of job training.There is no return to invest
265、ors,and all loan repayments are cycled back into the fund to support future learners.In addition,the New Jersey Pathways in Technology Early College High School encompasses four schools that provide students the opportunity to earn a high school diploma,a STEM associates degree,and any required cert
266、ifications.Corporate partners include IBM.To date,students from underrepresented minority groups have held 90percent of the programs internships.Given the size of the talent gap in the state,New Jersey could go further and scale similar efforts that encourage enrollment and completion.In addition,it
267、 could partner with local nonprofits that actively provide support to underserved communities.For example,Braven works with colleges to help first-generation and underrepresented students gain career-readiness skills and land a strong first job.34The Garden State in bloom:Cultivating New Jerseys wor
268、kforce of tomorrowApproximately 5,100 students across five states,including New Jersey,have completed Braven courses and mentoring programs that help students develop soft skills,create a plan to secure college completion,and identify a path to secure a first job.2.Extend support services and incent
269、ives for students and hidden workers to join the labor force in New JerseySome segments of New Jerseys population are currently not working but have the potential to reenter the labor market.If New Jersey were to increase its labor force participation rate by three percentage points,thereby matching
270、 the average rate of 66 percent seen in the first decade of the century,the states workforce would increase by more than 210,000 people.87 Some of them are hidden workers,88 a group that includes individuals who want to reenter the labor markets but face barriers such as caregiving obligations.In ad
271、dition,if New Jersey could retain at least half of the students that complete college in the state(similar to rates in New York or Pennsylvania),more than 8,000 additional workers would join its labor force every year.89 Some programs or incentives could help build those incentives for workers to en
272、gage in the labor force in New Jersey.Employers could expand financial and support programs to create incentives for more workers to return to the workforce.Since individuals seeking to reenter the workforce can face barriers,programs could offer childcare subsidies,mental-health services,referrals
273、for community services,and career coaching.Some of those programs could be offered in partnership with local nonprofit organizations.New Jersey could boost collaboration between employers and universities to create incentives for students to stay in the state after graduation.The state could facilit
274、ate relationships between New Jersey companies and educational institutions to offer apprenticeships and internships that teach relevant skills for the job market.The potential to receive a job offer before graduation could serve as a powerful draw for students to stay in New Jersey.Also,employers i
275、n collaboration with other stakeholders could offer financial incentives for students who remain in New Jerseyfor example,they could consider programs to support repayment of student loans and reduce the cost of housing.They could also help students get access to all those services,incentives,and em
276、ployment opportunities through a centralized online platform.New Jersey has already begun to address some of these goals.For employers that hire workers returning to the labor force,the Return and Earn program reimburses 50 percent of wages for six months to offset additional costs of training and o
277、nboarding.It also provides a onetime bonus of$500 for returning employees.In addition,the states Higher Education Student Assistance Authority partners with STEM employers to forgive at least$8,000 in student loans.New Jersey could consider additional programs to support student retention by taking
278、inspiration from other states.For example,Maines Smart Buy program offers in-state students who are first-time homebuyers up to$40,000 in student loan forgiveness in exchange for a commitment to stay in Maine for five years after graduation.As another example,the New York Jobs Program tax credit off
279、ers up to$7,500 in credit for employers who hire local employees from the ages of 16 to 24,creating incentives to hire New Yorkers.In addition,young New Yorkers who participate in the program receive help from a counselor who connects them with opportunities at participating businesses in selected i
280、n-demand areas.In Pennsylvania,Campus Philly aims to increase retention through a centralized portal and concierge services that help college students land a permanent job or an internship,along with additional efforts to connect students to the citys culture and neighborhoods.3.Redefine employer hi
281、ring and recruiting processes to remove barriers for employment and actively tap into often-overlooked pools of talentAs noted previously,restrictive hiring practices by employers may screen out otherwise qualified candidates,reducing the available talent pool 35The Garden State in bloom:Cultivating
282、 New Jerseys workforce of tomorrowand preventing applicants from obtaining gainful employment.Nearly two-thirds of candidates believe employers could simplify the process by limiting skills requirement to just the essentials.90 The major beneficiaries of changes to hiring practices would be hidden w
283、orkers and others skilled through alternative routes(sometimes referred to as STARs91).New Jersey could encourage employers to redefine how they evaluate candidates,rethink the skills required for roles,and expand the candidate pool to tap into nontraditional talent.For example,not all nursing jobs
284、require an individual to have a nursing degree;certified nursing assistants or home health aides can perform some of those activities.Companies could adopt skills-based hiring through the following steps:Evaluate core skills required for the role and identify unnecessary“gating”requirements in curre
285、nt job descriptions.Update job descriptions by removing degree type,years of experience,or nonessential credentials and certificates to reflect a positions day-to-day tasks and actual skills used in the job.Evaluate candidates through preemployment assessments of skills and aptitude.During the outre
286、ach process,tap into often-overlooked sources of talent,such as people who have left the labor force,frontline workers,students from universities that arent included in a companys recruiting strategy,and community college graduates.Companies in New Jersey could learn from initiatives at major corpor
287、ations that successfully expanded their candidate pool by adopting skills-based hiring.IBM,for example,removed degree requirements for 50 percent of its US jobs and developed robust criteria to test for skills,including screening applicants for previous tech-related jobs and participation in certain
288、 apprenticeships or learning programs.Since implementing this approach,IBM has achieved a 63percent increase in minority applicants.As another example,GE Digital partners with OpportunityWork,an organization that specializes in finding STARs,to create pathways for overlooked and underrepresented can
289、didates.Similarly,Bank of America removed college degree requirements for most of its entry-level positions and launched the Pathways Program in 2018,with the goal of hiring 10,000 people from low-income neighborhoods by 2023.The bank reached its goal two years ahead of schedule.The state could play
290、 an important role in coordinating change among the business community.It could take inspiration from organizations such as OneTen,a nonprofit founded in 2020 with the goal of helping one million Black people in the United States get jobs using a skill-based approach.The organization works with empl
291、oyers to identify jobs that dont require a degree and to update job descriptions.It also works with talent developers to teach technical and professional skills for in-demand occupations and coordinates with community partners to provide services to support Black students through their training and
292、hiring processes.The organization has built a network of more than 49 employers and 89training providers,including partners such as Dow,JP Morgan Chase,Nike,PepsiCo,United Airlines,Verizon,and Walmart.4.Take the lead in creating the work environment of the future to improve attraction and retention
293、among New Jerseys companiesFactors such as work flexibility,mentorship,and support for employees are increasingly influencing attrition.Since the onset of COVID-19,the role of the workplace has changed:many employees expect more flexibility and have embraced the hybrid-working model.New Jersey compa
294、nies could reimagine their employee value proposition with an eye toward attracting and retaining talent.By promoting remote and hybrid work and giving employees flexibility on where they work and live,companies could greatly increase their access to top talent.They could also consider services such
295、 as childcare,36The Garden State in bloom:Cultivating New Jerseys workforce of tomorrowalternative career paths,and flexible working hours to accommodate potential workers who could face barriers to labor force participation.The changing nature of the workforce creates new opportunities to reinvent
296、the role of the workplace.Employers could design employee-centric workspaces with features such as collaboration spaces,individual workspaces,and decompression and break spaces.They could also open offices in central,accessible locations to reduce commutes for workers.As midsize New Jersey cities be
297、come an increasingly popular destination for hybrid workers,New Jersey companies could become more attractive to workers who are demanding more flexibility.New Jersey companies could look to peers that have successfully retained and attracted talent by offering unique value propositions in support s
298、ervices,workplace flexibility,and education.Patagonia,for example,subsidizes on-site childcare services in Ventura,California,and Reno,Nevada,with employees paying$500 to$1,300 a month.Almost 100 percent of new moms in those locations return to work following their maternity leave.Boeing,Cisco,Disne
299、y,Home Depot,and Procter&Gamble have instituted similar programs.Airbnb has shifted to a fully hybrid model,allowing employees to work either at home or in the office.Employees are also free to move anywhere without facing a reduction in pay,as long as they attend quarterly team gatherings.Implement
300、ing programs that support workers,including remote workers,could help companies in New Jersey not only improve retention but also tap into talent pools in New York,Pennsylvania,and other states in the region.In addition,professional development and advancement could be reshaped to boost employee ret
301、ention and offer opportunities for motivated workers to fill high-skilled roles within organizations.Continuous-learning programs(such as training bootcamps,leadership courses,and online training)could upskill employees for new and changing roles.To increase adoption,employers could enable workers t
302、o access higher education at their convenience,including through online instruction.5.Transform New Jersey urban areas into regional talent magnets New Jersey has historically struggled to retain homegrown talent and attract people from elsewhere in the United States:over the past decade,20,000 work
303、ers a year,on average,have left the state to relocate to other states(net of inflows).92 New Jersey could take advantage of its geographic location and build on its historic strengths to reverse these trends.The pandemic shed some light on the interest of workers to locate in New Jersey.In 2020,net
304、moves to New Jersey increased by 64 percent,and net growth of New York City residents moving to suburban New Jersey rose to more than 35,000 households in 2020,up 76 percent from the prior year.93 Bergen County,which is located across the Hudson River from Manhattan,attracted three times more net ne
305、w households from migration in 2020 compared with the prior year,as families relocated to take advantage of more space and short commutes.94The state could double down on the development of ecosystems that attract workers who are looking for communities outside of the big cities of New York and Phil
306、adelphia.There are successful examples of similar efforts across the United States.For instance,Raleigh-Durham,North Carolina,is known for its strong education and tech industry ecosystem,centered on the Research Triangle Park,the largest research park in the country,and home to companies such as Ci
307、sco Systems,Fidelity,and IBM.The areas recent investments have focused on attracting talent to midsize cities in the region for its growing tech ecosystem.Additional investments from both the public and private sectors have also strengthened local communities in Raleigh-Durham,creating a more attrac
308、tive environment for talent.Apple has invested$1 billion in local infrastructure and education,including$100 million for local schools and community college programs.Local government has focused on partnering with nonprofits to increase access to accelerators and funding for entrepreneurs.A series o
309、f actions could come together in New Jersey to build similar ecosystems around midsize cities.A 37The Garden State in bloom:Cultivating New Jerseys workforce of tomorrowconcentration of jobs,entertainment,housing,and education opportunities could transform semi-urban areas into talent magnets that w
310、ould benefit New Jersey companies.For example,New Jersey can seek to redevelop brownfield sites in order to create unique,attractive environments.A package of incentives geared to professionals at critical life junctures(such as the birth of children)could entice them to relocate to these revitalize
311、d semi-urban centers,as data show that young families are leading the exodus to New Jersey,particularly from New York City.95 Additional actions to strengthen amenities such as parks and transportation would make the region even more attractive.New Jersey is already making headway in this area.For e
312、xample,the city of Hackensack in Bergen County is undergoing its most significant transformation in decades.The city is planning for an additional 4,000 residential units in addition to thousands of square feet of retail space,parks,performing art spaces,cinemas,and open-air plazas.It has also launc
313、hed a downtown revitalization plan for high-density,mixed-used buildings.With two transit stations and a bus terminal providing direct access to Hoboken,New York City,and other destinations,Hackensack aims to build an ecosystem that attracts and retains young professionals.96New Jersey could also po
314、sition itself as a great place not only to live but also to work through strategic actions that help newcomers find good jobs within the state instead of commuting to New York or Pennsylvania.For example,the state could build attractive ecosystems in or around midsize cities such as Jersey City,Newa
315、rk,New Brunswick,Paterson,Elizabeth,and Plainfieldwhich are already home to the largest concentration of commuter workers in the stateto entice people to move there.New Jersey could also partner with private companies to develop corporate offices or suburban campuses in proximity to amenities such a
316、s parks,schools,and entertainment options.These actions could strengthen the value proposition for both living and working in New Jersey.A road map to sustainable growthMaking progress across the five bold bets will require coordinated action among stakeholders,including government,academia,business
317、,and nonprofits.Our research shows employers could have the greatest impact in reducing the talent gap.They have the ability to highlight available opportunities for students,who could be more likely to complete an associates degree or certification program if they had a job waiting for them.When em
318、ployers communicate their hiring needs,universities are more likely to update curriculums.Employers have the power to cast a wider net for candidates through a skill-based approach.In addition,companies have the ability to tap into new pools of talent,including searching in usually overlooked source
319、s,such as nontarget universities or community colleges.Any effective strategy should include employers and make them active co-creators of the solutions.New Jersey has taken significant steps to increase the level of cross-stakeholder collaboration with employers.For example,the New Jersey CEO Counc
320、il is a coalition of executives formed by the Governors Restart and Recovery Commission.It has pledged to train or hire more than 30,000 New Jersey residents from underrepresented communities by 2030 while urging the corporate community to train or hire an additional 40,000 workers.The CEO Council w
321、as one of the founding members of the New Jersey Pay It Forward Program.The next horizon of stakeholder collaborationNew Jersey has already established structures for employer collaboration,and this foundation could support progress.In addition,several employer-led groups have started programs that
322、can serve as inspiration to help New Jersey build the workforce of tomorrow.For example,the Greater Washington Partnership offers examples of successful models of collaboration.Through the Employer Signaling System,the Greater Washington Partnership facilitates conversations,working sessions,and 38T
323、he Garden State in bloom:Cultivating New Jerseys workforce of tomorrowdata-sharing agreements to collect labor market information,employer insights,and educator feedback.Employers and educators(K12 schools,universities,and community colleges)come together on an annual basis to refine curriculums and
324、 better prepare students for the labor market.In addition,the Greater Washington Partnership worked with universities in the capital region to create the CoLAB Digital Tech Credential,a program that helps students develop targeted skills in cybersecurity,data management,network management,and softwa
325、re development.The credentials create incentives for students to prepare for in-demand occupations,while helping employers validate skills that employees can learn without a bachelors degree.CoLAB academic programs in the DC area have engaged about 10,000 participants,who have been placed in jobs su
326、ch as information security analysts,computer network architects,software developers,and software quality assurance analysts and testers.New Jerseys talent shortage in those occupations makes this credential programs success particularly relevant.A more recent but promising model of collaboration is
327、the New York Jobs CEO Council,launched in 2020.It is an employer-led partnership that collaborates with public universities(such as CUNY)and New York Citys Department of Education to create training programs for in-demand occupations.Students gain digital tech skills and professional experience.Empl
328、oyer-provided experts work with faculty to create programs that meet job specifications and provide pathways for employment by expanding internship programs and committing to hiring graduates.The council has set ambitious goals:hire 100,000 New Yorkers for jobs with council members by 2030,line up 2
329、5,000 CUNY students with internships and apprenticeship programs by 2030,build skills in underrepresented populations,and connect untapped talent with in-demand jobs.Employers could also collaborate to follow the lead of several nonprofits.As mentioned in the previous section,OneTen is a nonprofit o
330、rganization that helps employers identify jobs that could remove degree requirements.It also offers a set of services to help Black students pursue gainful employment.In New Jersey,employers could collaborate to execute some of the“bold bets”mentioned previouslyfrom working with educators to expand
331、capacity and enrollment for high-demand sectors to collaborating with universities to offer on-the-job training opportunities and retain a higher proportion of graduates.By adopting a distinctive employer-led collaboration model,the states stakeholders can transform New Jersey into a talent magnet w
332、hile narrowing the labor gap.Securing New Jerseys future Through coordinated actions,New Jerseys stakeholders can act now to address the underlying factors contributing to the labor gap,inequality in employment opportunities,and talent retention in the state and workforce.The state has a unique oppo
333、rtunity to forge an economy that is more resilient,inclusive,and equitable.The impact will extend far beyond macroeconomic indicators such as GDP and labor force participation.It will be evident in revitalized communities across the state,more equitable opportunities for traditionally overlooked groups,and the ability of individuals to pursue their full potential.To become a reality,this ambitious
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