高力国际（Colliers）：2022年上半年美国单一租户净租赁报告（英文版）（6页）.pdf

1、Single-Tenant and Net Lease Sales Face Headwinds First Half Review 2022U.S.Capital Markets Report|Single-Tenant Net LeaseOverviewThe single-tenant and net lease(STNL)space posted a strong performance in the first half of 2022,hitting an all-time high of$40.1 billion in investment sales.This number i

2、s 12%above 2021s first-half figures,which marked the previous record.However,the pace of sales is easing.Volume in Q2 fell 35%from Q1 and 17%compared to last year.In addition,deal count was down 42%in Q2 compared to 2021.Rising interest rates have made transactions more challenging to complete,parti

3、cularly for the private owner reliant on debt.Predictable cash flow has been critical in the STNL space.While that is still the case,modest rent increases built into lease structures are less appealing to todays investors,thanks to stubborn inflation.Likewise,the cost of debt has increased,so non-ca

4、sh buyers are asking for price discounts that some owners are unwilling to accept.This dynamic has caused the market to show signs of peaking,with a four-quarter moving volume of$108 billion,down slightly from Q1s record pace of$111 billion.While long-term leased assets are not as attractive as they

5、 were just a few quarters ago,this is likely a blip and not a sustainable market situation.Forecasts for inflation predict that todays levels will ease in the quarters ahead,allowing the market to return to normal,albeit with higher interest rates than seen in 2021.Today,investors are focused on the

6、ir ability to get to the lease roll quickly,particularly on the industrial side,where rent growth has been strong.Capital from 1031 exchange buyers remains a driving force,and private equity has raised billions of dollars to deploy into the STNL space.Net Acquisitions by Capital SourceSTNL Investmen

7、t by Property TypePrior 10 Year Average1H 2022Retail 26%Office 34%Industrial 40%Retail 19%Office 29%Industrial 52%202020211H 2022Sources:Colliers,Real Capital AnalyticsU.S.Capital Markets Report|Single-Tenant Net LeaseIndustrialIndustrial is in a unique situation.Fundamentals remain phenomenal with

8、insatiable tenant demand and rising rents.However,single-tenant transactions,particularly with term,are currently out of favor.Investors are interested in getting to the rent roll quickly,meaning that short-term leased or multi-tenant assets are the focus.This trend will likely be temporary as inves

9、tors get comfortable with todays market conditions by acquiring assets with negative leverage for a short time,capturing mark-to-market upside in the near future.First-half volume broke records,but sales pace fell sharply in Q2.Volume was off 32%from Q1,and the number of trades in Q2 was down 31%com

10、pared to 2021.There is friction in the investment sales market that needs to be smoothed through,making it likely that volume will slow further in Q3.Traded assets hit new high-water price points,though cap rates have shown signs of upward pressure.Both median and top quartile cap rates have increas

11、ed in the years first half.REITs have been more active to start the year,growing their share of buy-side and sell-side trades.As a result,on the year,REITs are net buyers.Likewise,cross-border and institutional sources are net buyers to start the year,while private owners are net sellers,continuing

12、the trend seen over the past two years.Key Statistics5.1%Median Cap Rate$148/SFMedian$/SF$20.8B1H 2022 VolumePricing and Cap Rates Over TimeNet Acquisitions by Capital Source202020211H 2022Net Acquisitions(bn)$6$4$2$0$2$4$6$8Cross-BorderInstitutionalREITPrivateQuarterly VolumeMedian Cap RateSources:

13、Colliers,Real Capital AnalyticsU.S.Capital Markets Report|Single-Tenant Net LeaseOfficeSTNL office sales are slumping.On the surface,first-half volume totaling nearly$12 billion is in line with pre-pandemic averages from 2015-2019.However,second-quarter volume was down 50%from Q1,as the cost of debt

14、 and inflation increased and the number of COVID-19 cases surged.Given that the typical office lease structure has annual rent bumps well below current inflation levels,some investors are taking a wait-and-see approach.As a result,volume and overall deal activity have cooled.Transactions in the firs

15、t half fell 25%from 2021,while Q2 figures were off nearly 40%from the previous year.Pricing continues to rise,indicating that while there are fewer transactions,those trading are acquiring higher-quality assets.Over the past year,single-tenant pricing increased 7.8%,slower than office overall.In the

16、 second quarter,pricing barely moved,up just 0.1%.Like industrial,long-term leased assets are temporarily out of favor,although we dont expect this to last.As inflation eases,investor interest should rebound.The makeup of the buyer pool is shifting.Cross-border capital has all but ceased.After drivi

17、ng 21%of purchase activity in 2021,cross-border investors have spurred just 1.7%of activity through Q2.Likewise,REIT activity has fallen from 13%to 6.9%.On the other hand,private capital and user purchases have both stepped up.On the year,cross-border and REITs have been net sellers,while institutio

18、nal and private capital sources have been net buyers.Key Statistics5.9%Median Cap Rate$323/SFMedian$/SF$11.8B1H 2022 VolumePricing and Cap Rates Over TimeNet Acquisitions by Capital Source202020211H 2022Quarterly VolumeMedian Cap RateNet Acquisitions(bn)$5$4$3$2$1$0$1$2$3$4Cross-BorderInstitutionalR

19、EITPrivateSources:Colliers,Real Capital AnalyticsU.S.Capital Markets Report|Single-Tenant Net LeaseRetailSTNLs performance in the years first half was a bit of a mixed bag.Sales volume was nearly in line with 2021 levels,and once the data settles,it is likely to match or exceed those levels.However,

20、volume in Q2 fell 20%from 2021,and the number of transactions decreased by 50%.The average price per deal is up now that investors are targeting higher-quality assets and locations.Cap rates fell in the first half,with nearly all movement occurring in Q2.This is likely unsustainable,particularly for

21、 the top quartile of deals,which saw cap rates fall to 4.8%.First-half buyers have been institutional and REIT sources.Cross-border and private investors have been net sellers.REITs have been on a multi-year net acquisition spree,and have seen as much investment,year-to-date,as they did in 2021.Over

22、all,however,deal volume is lower.These sources of capital are less sensitive,though not immune,to rising interest rates and borrowing costs.Private capital is the most sensitive and is likely to be driven by 1031 exchanges,which buyers need to transact.Investors are still attracted to STNL retail pr

23、operties.Pricing will likely adjust in the months ahead as a bid-ask spread has emerged across the broader marketplace.As inflation shows signs of easing,capital should pour into STNL assets again.Key Statistics5.2%Median Cap Rate$396/SFMedian$/SF$7.6 B1H 2022 VolumePricing and Cap Rates Over TimeNe

24、t Acquisitions by Capital Source202020211H 2022Quarterly VolumeMedian Cap RateNet Acquisitions(bn)$0.6$0.4$0.2$0.0$0.2$0.4$0.6$0.8$1.0$1.2Cross-BorderInstitutionalREITPrivateSources:Colliers,Real Capital AnalyticsContactsFor more information contact:C DisclaimerThis document/email has been prepared

25、by Colliers for advertising and general information only.Colliers makes no guarantees,representations or warranties of any kind,expressed or implied,regarding the information including,but not limited to,warranties of content,accuracy and reliability.Any interested party should undertake their own i

26、nquiries as to the accuracy of the information.Colliers excludes unequivocally all inferred or implied terms,conditions and warranties arising out of this document and excludes all liability for loss and damages arising there from.This publication is the copyrighted property of Colliers and/or its l

27、icensor(s).2022.All rights reserved.This communication is not intended to cause or induce breach of an existing listing agreement.Frank PetzU.S.Capital Markets Board of Advisors,Office LeadFrank.P+1 617 330 8123Michael KendallU.S.Capital Markets Board of Advisors,Industrial LeadMichael.K+1 949 724 5

28、545El WarnerU.S.Capital Markets Board of Advisors,Retail Lead El.W+1 949 724 5690David AmsterdamPresident,U.S.Capital Markets and Northeast RegionDavid.A+1 212 716 3556Anjee SolankiNational Director,U.S.Retail ServicesAnjee.S+1 415 288 7871Aaron JodkaDirector of Research,U.S.Capital MarketsAaron.J+1 617 330 8059