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高盛对中国房地产开发商全英文深度研究报告（ 42页）.pdf

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高盛对中国房地产开发商全英文深度研究报告（ 42页）.pdf

1、February 22, 2010 China: Real Estate Developers Gao Hua Securities Investment Research 1 February 22, 2010 China: Real Estate Developers Reshuffling picks on new risk/reward analysis amid tightening Lowering target prices to reflect near-term tightening risk We lower our 12-month target prices acros

2、s our coverage group by 0%- 32% after increasing our target price discounts to NAV by 0-20 percentage points (to within a range of 10%-40% from our prior 0%-30% range). This reflects our concern of greater uncertainty arising from recent government macro tightening. Although we believe its purpose i

3、s to slow, rather than reverse, Chinas economic recovery, we believe the tightening could affect the pace of developers selling properties or realizing their land bank value in the near-term and could therefore weigh on share price performance. Current share prices are approaching our bear-case valuation Recent falls mean share prices are on average only 8% higher than our bear-case year-end 2010


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